UFC 319 Best Bets and Props: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev, taking place at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois this weekend.

UFC 319 Betting Picks

Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (-168)
Hooper Wins Inside the Distance (+100)
Hooper by Submission (+175)

A seemingly increasing ceiling for Chase Hooper can absolutely get the stoppage against Alexander Hernandez here.

Despite a couple of sketchy moments, Hernandez has seen the end of five straight fights by decision. However, these were the ages of his opponents at the time of the fight: 39, 34, 35, 32, and 38. A 25-year-old Hooper, who has finished three of his last four foes, is an entirely different breed of athlete.

"The Dream" averages 2.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which is the highest average Hernandez has faced since Jim Miller (1.7). As linked, Miller nearly got him late in the bout, and the veteran was also Hooper's last opponent. Chase showed a new wrinkle and landed eight takedowns, which is what we needed to see to reliably count on his submission danger.

At the same time, Hooper's 38% striking D is always an issue, and this is his best opponent since switching to 155 pounds, as well.

Overall, I've got this fight ending early 64.8% of the time compared to oddsmakers' 62.7% implied odds. It's a Hooper finish 51.6% of the time, and it's a Hooper submission 38.6% of the time (+159 implied).

Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez

Andrade to Win (+126)
Andrade by Points (+270)

Death, taxes, and yours truly "buying low" on Jessica Andrade.

Somehow, the former champion is just 33 years old still. I will say that I haven't probably given enough credence to Andrade shifting weight classes where her 115-pound (13-8) and 125-pound (4-4) records in UFC are very, very different. She's back at strawweight against Loopy Godinez on Saturday.

That's interesting when Andrade actually hasn't been taken down in five of her last six fights at 115 pounds. That could be the pivotal turning point when Andrade's SSR (+0.90) is still so much better than Loopy's (+0.41) considering the championship level of competition while also up in weight.

Recent ground deficiencies from Andrade can't be totally ignored, but I've got "Bate Estaca" as a winner 46.7% of the time in this matchup. Interestingly, that's with a higher probability to win a decision (28.6%) than Godinez (26.6%).

Loopy has a tendency to not always fight with the best gameplan, and if she's not flooring Andrade with regularity, she's probably getting beat up at distance.

Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page

Cannonier to Win (+158)
Cannonier by KO/TKO (+600)

I don't love this pivot to middleweight for Michael Page.

"Venom" is one of the few Bellator imports to find success, per a 2-1 record so far. His lone setback came inside the welterweight rankings to Ian Machado Garry. After a slender win over an odd stylistic matchup against Shara Magomedov, Jared Cannonier's size and strength could be an obstacle his speed can't overcome.

"The Killa Gorilla" just beat a dangerous Gregory Rodrigues (8-3 UFC), who is one of the most well-rounded, powerful 185ers on the planet. That was a return to form for Cannonier as his knockdown rate (0.58 KD%) has slipped into his 40s after once being a prolific (T)KO artist.

Page is a welterweight, though. I'm deeply concerned MVP's previous takedown woes against Logan Storley return, and Cannonier finished Derek Brunson with nasty elbows the last time he maintained top position.

At a -196 price tag, the favorite's low-volume, defensively sound package is just pretty unappealing. Cannonier can win on the cards with volume, can stall time in the clinch as Garry did, and might really be able to inflict ground-and-pound if ever granted top position.

I've got Cannonier 48.2% likely to win. An elevated 18.0% of the time, it's a knockout -- which probably wouldn't come at distance. I'm betting the former title challenger's size is just simply too much for MVP to handle.

Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates

Neal to Win (+198)

Unfortunately, I'll donate here if it's necessary.

Geoff Neal can be a frustrating cat between weight issues (from being so big for the division) and inconsistent performances, but he's one of 170 pounds' most talented boxers, and it shows up in the stat sheet. Despite facing top-10 competition for a half decade, "Handz of Steel" holds plus marks in striking accuracy (51%) and defense (57%).

Even Neal's -0.39 SSR trumps that of Carlos Prates (-1.19 SSR), a hyped member of Brazil's Fighting Nerds team. I just can't process the love from an unbiased perspective when he's done this against suspect competition. Prates' UFC foes are 10-14 with the promotion since the start of 2022.

"The Nightmare" is hittable (48% striking D) with just one total takedown attempt in his career. Don't get me wrong; his 3.77 KD% to this point is lethal, but that's about it, and we saw him get bludgeoned at distance against Ian Machado Garry (-70 striking differential) when the (T)KO didn't happen.

Neal hasn't lost by knockout, and he's only been dropped once with UFC. With power of his own (1.34 KD%), the underdog's defensive fundamentals are undervalued here. I've unnervingly got him modeled at 52.9% likely to beat Prates, but that's not overly surprising when the Brazilian has been awful on a per-minute basis.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Du Plessis to Win (+194)
Du Plessis Wins After Round 3 (+430)

Gilbert Burns didn't drown. Kamaru Usman didn't drown. Why will three-time defending middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis drown?

Both of those 170-pound contenders made it all three rounds and took at least one off Khamzat Chimaev in decisions. Now, Chimaev is a full-time middleweight after embarrassing weight issues in the past. "Borz" was able to dominate Robert Whittaker for a first-round sub last year, but Du Plessis also bested Whittaker by a dominant second-round (T)KO.

"Stillknocks" is the tortoise to Chimaev's hare. He's won three straight fights that all started Round 4 because he can keep up a frantic pace. We saw Chimaev wilt late from his output against both Burns and Usman.

The opening is there for Khamzat early. Du Plessis' 50% takedown D isn't ideal, and he's yet to face a fighter averaging north of 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes like Khamzat (2.8). However, if that early sub doesn't come, Du Plessis' striking defense is 13 percentage points higher, and he attempts 12.75 significant strikes per minute to Chimaev's 9.24.

While I've got Chimaev 60.8% likely to win (-155 implied), a decision just 1.7% of the time shows how badly he tends to fade from attempting to "smesh" foes quickly. Du Plessis' endurance could be the deciding factor. I've got to back his moneyline with pretty evenly split of a finish (20.9%) and decision (18.4%) victory.

At worst, the +194 underdog is significantly more likely to win early by a vicious (T)KO himself than Chimaev would be late. This number is good value in a matchup of undefeated fighters that haven't really shown any true weaknesses thus far.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.