3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 7/2/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins

Over 4.5 First 5 Innings Total Runs (-128)

The Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins already have clear pitching flaws as both rank in the top 13 for the most runs allowed this season. Tonight's starting-pitcher matchup between Simeon Woods Richardson and Janson Junk suggests even more run production allowed.

Starting with Woods Richardson, his numbers on the season are underwhelming with a 4.63 ERA, 4.44 SIERA, and 4.62 xFIP. Miami has the seventh-highest batting average and third-most hits per game. The Marlins should be able to regularly get on base, and opponents hitting .298 with men in scoring position against Woods Richardson implies run production. After logging 6.0 runs per game over the last 10, Miami is in position to produce more runs.

The Marlins are turning to Junk for his third start of the season, but he's primarily been a reliever, with five of his seven outings coming from the bullpen. With only 22 appearances under his belt, this start generates a long list of concerns.

Junk has a 6.23 ERA over his two starts and was pulled in the fourth inning after ceding eight hits and five earned runs in his most recent start. Junk's four-seam fastball leads his tools with a 36.9% usage rate, and Minnesota has the third-most runs above average against the pitch.

If Junk is pulled early, Miami's bullpen is unlikely to provide much relief, either, with the ninth-highest ERA and eighth-highest SIERA.

I'm expecting plenty of runs in the early going with two vulnerable starters on the rubber.

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

Brewers Moneyline (-126)

Jacob Misiorowski has yet to blink in the big leagues, boasting a 1.13 ERA, 3.34 SIERA, and 3.22 xFIP. Following three stellar starts, he carries the shortest odds to win National League Rookie of the Year (-190). While his advanced stats suggest some regression could be on the horizon, I don't think it will begin today.

The New York Mets rank 16th and 17th in runs above average against four seamers (54.4% usage rate) and sliders (31.1%), respectively, and these make up Misiorowski's two most-used pitches by a mile. He has the ability to limit hard contact as Misiorowski is on pace to finish in the top third for the lowest barrel and hard-hit percentages allowed. This holds a ton of weight for tonight's meeting as New York ranks seventh in SLG and sixth in isolated power and home run rate.

Totaling under their season average of 4.33 runs per game (15th-most) in 8 of the last 10 only creates even more concerns for the Mets. They come off a series with a measly 1.3 runs per contest. The Milwaukee Brewers are 3-0 with Misiorowski on the mound, winning each contest by multiple runs.

New York has its own rookie starter going, but Blade Tidwell pales in comparison to the competition. He's struggled over three outings with a 10.13 ERA, 5.99 SIERA, and 6.50 xFIP. The Brew Crew are in the top half of runs above average against three of his four most-used pitches, and the only exception is Tidwell's lowest usage rate among the four offerings (18.8% for a sinker).

The Mets are 0-3 when Tidwell makes an appearance -- a stark contrast to Milwaukee's track record with Misiorowski.

Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies

Under 10.5 Total Runs (-105)

Wednesday's meeting between the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies has a lofty 10.5-run total. However, both of these teams are among the bottom 12 in runs scored per game. Houston has logged only 3.5 runs per contest over the last 10 while Colorado has posted 3.9 runs per game in the same split. I'm not buying this game going over 10.5 runs.

The Rockies putting Austin Gomber on the mound is likely the main reason the total is where it is. His 6.14 ERA and 6.33 SIERA set off all the sirens, but this simply isn't a good matchup for the Astros. Houston has totaled the fourth-fewest runs against southpaws and is in the bottom half of runs above average against three of Gomber's four most-used pitches. The 'Stros are even in the bottom 10 of runs above average against splitters and knuckle curves -- which make up two of Gomber's top four pitches.

We don't have to do much convincing for the Rockies on the other side of things. Houston is putting a Cy Young contender on the bump in Hunter Brown -- who has the second-shortest American League Cy Young odds (+650). He touts an elite 1.74 ERA and 2.84 SIERA. His ERA has only improved over the last five (1.19).

Colorado has the highest strikeout rate while Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile of the category. The Rockies are also in the bottom 10 of runs above average against Brown's two most-used pitches (four-seam fastball and sinker).

Add Brown's elite numbers to the Astros struggling against lefties, and the 10.5 total seems too lofty.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.