3 Best College Football Bets for Week 13
Each week in college football, there are tons of games available to us.
While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.
Postseason matchups across college football are lining up as several teams have the chance to clinch conference championship berths this weekend. Of course, every matchup at this stage in the season has implications on the College Football Playoff, as well. Many could be shifting their focus to Rivalry Week, but don't sleep on what Week 13 has to offer.
Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?
All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
College Football Week 13 Betting Picks
No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana +13.5 (-115)
In terms of stakes, the Indiana Hoosiers against the Ohio State Buckeyes is surely Week 13's top game. Not only is each team in the top five of the College Football Playoff Rankings, but this will have a huge impact on who plays in the Big Ten Championship.
The Oregon Ducks have already clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game with only Washington left on their schedule. Meanwhile, Indiana currently holds that second spot in the title game, but if OSU wins this weekend, the Buckeyes will play in Indianapolis -- assuming they take out Michigan in Rivalry Week.
With that said, most expect Ohio State to cruise in Saturday's big-time matchup. The spread has consistently moved in Ohio State's favor, going from 12.5 to 13.5. However, the public is on the Hoosiers with about 68% of spread bets at FanDuel Sportsbook on IU.
This comes with good reason as Indiana seems to be extremely underrated in this game. Sure, the Hoosiers didn't look quite as sharp in their 20-15 win over Michigan in Week 11. But Indiana is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) while OSU holds a mediocre 5-5 ATS record.
Spread
There should be clear concern around the Buckeyes following the season-ending injury to center Seth McLaughlin (Achilles). He was playing his way into the NFL and seemed on track to earning All-American honors, and Ohio State already lost its starting left tackle Josh Simmons for the season. This was already a makeshift offensive line, and losing perhaps its best lineman makes things even worse.
The Buckeyes sit in the top 40% of rush play rate, and IU allows the second-fewest yards per carry (2.7) and rushing yards per game (78.9). Ohio State wants to establish the run, and facing an exceptional run defense after sustaining another injury on the O-line spells trouble.
Additionally, I still have questions about the Buckeyes' cornerbacks. David Igbinosun has been grabby with a load of defensive pass interference flags, and Denzel Burke has looked like burnt toast at times. The Hoosiers carry the second-most EPA per drop back and average 9.3 yards per passing attempt (sixth-most).
numberFire's game projections have OSU winning 29.3-19.7 while College Football Nerds' prediction model have a 25.3-14.5 score in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State seems on track to win straight up, but an Indiana cover is a good bet.
No. 13 SMU Mustangs at Virginia Cavaliers
SMU Over 34.5 Points (-114)
The SMU Mustangs are in a prime spot to play in the ACC Championship. With a win over the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend, SMU would clinch its spot in the title game.
About 84% of the public is on the 'Stangs to cover the 9.5-point spread. Much of this can be credited toward their elite offense, which logs 37.8 points per game (top 7%) and 6.2 yards per play (top 19%).
While SMU leans on the run with a 56.7% rush play rate (top 25%), the passing attack is dangerous with 9.0 yards per passing attempt (top 7%). Virginia isn't great against the run, allowing 4.2 yards per rushing attempt (top 54%). It's even worse against the pass, surrendering 7.8 yards per passing attempt (bottom 29%) and 274.4 passing yards per contest (bottom 9%). It's reflected in the Cavaliers' EPA allowed per play, for they rank 49th against the run and 81st against the pass.
During Southern Methodist's seven-game winning streak, it's racking up 42.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Virginia has given up over 34 points in three of its past four contests. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been like the Human Torch, averaging 296.0 passing yards per game over the last four and has posted Pro Football Focus passing grades above 84.0 in five of the past seven outings.
SMU Total Points
I'm not worried about Virginia slowing the pace of this game either as the Cavaliers are in the top 19% for the fewest seconds per play -- which is right in line with SMU's top 18% mark for the quickest tempos.
numberFire's projections has the Mustangs totaling 36.9 points, which is right in line with College Football Nerds' 36.8-point projection for SMU.
No. 14 BYU Cougars at No. 21 Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State -3.5 (+100)
The Big 12 race is gearing up to be a memorable finish. Iowa State and Kansas State fell in recent weeks, causing Colorado to surge up the standings. Following the Brigham Young Cougars' loss last week, their spot in the Big 12 Championship doesn't look as secure. BYU has a chance to clinch this weekend, but a road test against the red-hot Arizona State Sun Devils should prove to be a major challenge.
Arizona State suddenly has a shot to also play for the Big 12 title. If the Sun Devils win out, the only scenario where they don't make the championship game is if Colorado and Iowa State win out while BYU loses out. One thing's for sure, the Sun Devils have to keep winning.
With that said, I love Arizona State's chances for another win and cover on Saturday. The Cougars are 7-3 ATS, but they're 1-3 over the last four. Meanwhile, the Devils are 8-2 ATS and have covered five of the last six. ASU has been a consistent winner for me this season, and I won't hop off the hype train quite yet.
Spread
BYU's offense has gone cold with 17.5 PPG over the last two compared to 30.6 PPG for the season. Despite carrying a red zone scoring rate of 90.6% (wowza!), the Cougs' red zone offense has fallen off a cliff over the last few games. Plus, BYU already carries a third-down conversion rate of 29.8% (bottom 6%), and that's continued by converting only 4 of its last 22 third downs (18.2%). Pair those two struggles and it spells losses.
Meanwhile, ASU has won the turnover battle while converting 25 of 43 third downs (58.1%) during its three-game winning streak. For reference, Miami (FL) has the nation's top third-down conversion percentage at 55.4%. The Cougars are already in the bottom 40% of third-down conversion rate allowed and have lost the turnover battle in two of their last four; that's out of character for a team that's +0.9 in turnover margin this season (top 9%).
To make matters worse, the Sun Devils are in the top 12% of rush play rate. BYU's defense typically has more troubles against the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry (top 51%) compared to 5.6 yards allowed per passing attempt (top 4%). Saturday should be a huge day for running back Cam Skattebo, who is logging 119.3 rushing yards per game.
While the 3.5-point spread is not a key number, we are still getting plus odds. The alternate spread of -2.5 is also -128. Arizona State has a long list of reasons for covering this game; give me the -3.5 spread for the plus odds.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.