3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 11/21/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Utah Hockey Club vs. Boston Bruins
Bruins Moneyline (-176)
Moneyline
This betting line implies the Utah Hockey Club has a puncher’s chance against the Boston Bruins on Thursday night. But as we’ll soon find out, that isn’t the case.
The Bs have started to tilt the ice in their favor. Boston has been a middling analytics team this season, but the Bruins’ recent efforts are much improved. They’ve gone north of 26 scoring chances in three of their past four, with a corresponding increase in high-danger opportunities. Across the four-game sample, the Bruins are averaging 10.8 quality chances per game, recording no fewer than eight in any contest. That’s a substantial increase from the 7.7 they are averaging throughout the season and a solid indicator that increased scoring is on the horizon.
That influx of goals should come against Utah. The Hockey Club embarks on a four-game road trip, starting with tonight’s battle against the Bruins. Unfortunately, the Utah Hockey Club is bringing its lackluster metrics with it. The NHL’s newest team has struggled as the visitors this season, recording eight or fewer high-danger chances in four of their past five. Moreover, goaltending has been an issue on the road. Utah’s goalies have combined for a disastrous .868 save percentage as the visitors, the fourth-worst mark in the NHL.
Boston’s increase in scoring is projected to come against a Utah team that struggles to contain opponents on the road. The visitors won’t be able to keep pace offensively, leaving a significant edge in backing the Bs on Thursday night.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Over 6.5 (-110)
Total Goals
Two teams on an offensive roll collide in the Buckeye State as the Columbus Blue Jackets host the Tampa Bay Lightning. Both teams have been scoring at ease lately, and we expect that to continue in tonight’s clash at Nationwide Arena.
A four-game losing streak is a distant memory for Tampa Bay. The Bolts have won three in a row, turning on the offensive jets to get past their opponents. Across that modest stretch, the Lightning are averaging 10.3 high-danger and 25.0 scoring chances. Naturally, that increased production correlates with a scoring boon. The Lightning scored 11 goals over that stretch, with six tallies at five-on-five. That equates to a 12.1% shooting percentage, which is still below their season-long average of 12.9%. Ongoing scoring is anticipated as their shooting percentage progresses toward average.
The Blue Jackets will be ready to trade blows with the Lightning, particularly on home ice. Columbus has surpassed 13 high-danger chances in three of its past five and is averaging 11.8 quality opportunities over its previous eight. Like their Thursday night foes, improved production has yielded increased output, with Columbus tallying 12 goals over its last three.
Goaltending will be a factor, but this could be a spot where the Lightning turn to backup netminder Jonas Johansson. But even if it’s Andrei Vasilevskiy and Elvis Merzlikins standing in the blue paint, we still think there’s value in backing this one to go over the total.
New York Islanders vs. Detroit Red Wings
Red Wings Moneyline (+104)
Moneyline
The Detroit Red Wings catch the New York Islanders in a flat scheduling spot. The Isles are a well-traveled group, playing their fifth straight game on the road. Those travel issues are compounded by a curious East to West to back East schedule that will have New York out of sorts when the puck drops in the Motor City.
Of course, there’s an analytics component to the Islanders' anticipated misery. New York has lost its edge recently. The Patrick Roy-coached group has been outplayed in five of its past seven, with most of its issues arising in its own end. Four of those seven opponents have exceeded 11 high-danger chances, and all but two of those teams have exceeded 25 scoring opportunities.
That ineffective defensive zone coverage plays into the Red Wings' swing of offensive fortunes. Detroit is coming off a four-goal performance against the San Jose Sharks, the second time in three games in which they’ve recorded four goals. Moreover, the Wings have been particularly potent on home ice, attempting ten or more high-danger chances in three of their previous four at Little Caesars Arena.
The betting price doesn’t reflect it, but the Islanders have been in a deficit lately. They’ve been consistently outplayed over their recent schedule, and the schedule-makers did them no favors in setting up this Eastern Conference tilt. Our analysis supports the idea that there’s value in backing the hosts in this one.
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