3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes

Key Takeaways:

• Sovereignty is the heavy favorite and class standout, with proven tactical speed in a short field.
• Mo Plex could wire the race or control the pace—dangerous if left alone up front.
• Baeza brings strong form and reunites with a jockey who may place him more forward.

The Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy is one of the most eagerly awaited races of the summer 3-year-old horse racing season. It happens Saturday, July 26 at Saratoga Race Course, and though the 1 ⅛-mile dirt race is the local prep for the Grade 1 Travers Stakes the following month, the race is also one of the most eagerly-awaited races of the summer in its own right.

Though the Jim Dandy drew a field of only five, the quality is spectacular. Sovereignty, winner of both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, makes his first start since competing in the Triple Crown classics. He faces two of his foes from the Belmont: Baeza, who was third behind Sovereignty at Churchill Downs and the Spa five weeks later, as well as Hill Road, a Chad Brown trainee who ran fifth in the Triple Crown’s final jewel.

The other two entrants are also graded-stakes winners in their own right. Sandman makes his first start since finishing third behind Journalism and Gosger in the Preakness Stakes—a race that has graded out nicely, especially after that same pair completed the exacta in the Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park last Saturday. Mo Plex, the only horse in the Jim Dandy who did not compete in the Triple Crown, comes into the Jim Dandy off of a confident victory in the Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown.

The Jim Dandy is the 10th race on Saturday’s 12-race card at Saratoga Race Course, and it gets underway at 5:41 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. It is one of two graded-stakes races on the day; sophomore fillies on the lawn also get to shine in the Lake George one race earlier.

These are the three best bets in the 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes:

1. Sovereignty (2025 Jim Dandy Stakes odds: 2-5)

Even though the Jim Dandy field is a quality group from top to bottom, Sovereignty is not only a very good horse, but the emphatic divisional leader. Masterfully handled by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, he has been meticulously prepared throughout his campaign, and this race should be no different. After all, Mott is an old hand at Saratoga, and by now, so is Sovereignty—Mott shipped him up to the Spa right after the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs back in May, ran him in the Belmont over the same course, and keeps him right there for the Jim Dandy.

The son of Into Mischief is fast, and he is consistent—yes, his only out-of-the-money finish came at Saratoga, but that was in his six-furlong debut. All his starts at a mile or longer have been good ones, and he proved in the Belmont that the Saratoga course suits him just fine if he gets enough ground. And, though he shortens up from the classic distance for the Jim Dandy, he has done well enough at 1 1/16 miles and 1 ⅛ miles to think we will see the Sovereignty we know.

The one concern with Sovereignty, at least at one point, was pace. As he came around to facing top horses, he was emerging as a closer despite showing flashes of tactical speed early in his career. However, he proved in the Belmont Stakes—over the local Saratoga course, no less!—that he could track closer to the pace if he needed to, and then take over strongly. With only five horses in the field and only Mo Plex likely to be right on the front end, that more tactical gear should allow him to get a winning trip once again.

2. Mo Plex (2025 Jim Dandy Stakes odds: 10-1)

Speed is dangerous in a short field, and Mo Plex is the one who has it. There are a few here who have shown a stalking gear—Baeza, Sovereignty, maybe even Sandman with the new blinkers plus the early-career inklings of tactical speed. But, none of them has shown that they want to make the top.

Mo Plex, on the other hand? He regularly makes it on or near the lead. He doesn’t have to set the fractions; he won the Ohio Derby from a stalking style, so he has that backup ability even if someone else shows uncharacteristic speed. But, he has been on the lead or battling for it in most of his races, and should have enough pace to lead the Jim Dandy a very long way.

This Jeremiah Englehart trainee will have to improve to beat this field, one that features some of the best of his class. But, he has been gradually improving through all his starts this year and has a pace advantage. With that, he should be bettable on the tote board since he doesn’t come from a Triple Crown race and he comes from a barn that is well proven in New York but still under the radar to bettors who tend to focus on other circuits.

3. Baeza (2025 Jim Dandy Stakes odds: 3-1)

Baeza doesn’t have a victory in a graded-stakes race yet, but he has done basically everything else. Between his close second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then third-place finishes in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, he has proven that he can contend with top horses even if he hasn’t gotten his signature win yet.

One concern based on his running style in recent races is pace. He was closer up in his races at Santa Anita than he was in either the Kentucky Derby or even the Belmont. Setting back was helpful in the Kentucky Derby, of course, but there was less early speed in the Belmont and he probably would have turned out with a better placing had he sat closer to the pace. With only five horses in the field and only Mo Plex being a real speed horse, he is going to need to be closer up.

But, he gets jockey Hector Berrios back in the irons—Berrios was his regular rider in California, and typically did ride him forward. If he can tap back into the more forward placement he got from Baeza at Santa Anita, that will be a perfect pairing with Baeza’s known stamina and class, enough to make him a win contender in the Jim Dandy.

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