3 Best Bets and Player Props for Penn State vs. Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game

College football's Championship Week promises to be a good one with all four Power 4 conferences featuring spreads under four points. This includes the ACC and Big 12 title games with a College Football Playoff berth on the line while the Big Ten and SEC each feature top-five squads in action.

The Big Ten Championship could very well have the No. 1 seed for the playoffs on the line. If the Oregon Ducks win, they should hold on to the top spot. If the Penn State Nittany Lions pull off the upset, they could vault into the top ranking if the Texas Longhorns fall to the Georgia Bulldogs.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's national championship odds, Oregon is tied as the favorite to win it all (+350) while Penn State sports the sixth-shortest line (+1000). Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what are the best bets in the Big Ten top-three collision that kicks off Saturday at 8 p.m. ET?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Penn State vs. Oregon Betting Picks

Penn State +3.5 (-112)

Under 49.5 Points (-105)

The game will likely go one of two ways. If we get into a high-scoring affair with the over hitting, Oregon will likely enjoy a cover and win.

Penn State's offense ranks 10th in EPA per play compared to Oregon carrying the 5th-best ranking. When facing top-20 defenses in EPA allowed per play, the Nittany Lions are logging only 19.5 points per game (PPG). Meanwhile, the Ducks are averaging 35.0 PPG against top-20 units in EPA allowed per play, and both teams have seen two top-20 defenses in this category.

There have been questions about if Penn State's receivers are good enough, and if quarterback Drew Allar can do enough in big-time matchups. These concerns seem reasonable considering these numbers, and Oregon keeps on chugging no matter the defense thus far.

On the other end of outcomes, if the Lions are to cover, or even push for a win, a low-scoring contest with the under delivering seems like a good pairing. PSU leans on a defense that surrenders only 14.0 PPG (fourth-fewest) and 4.3 yards per play (fifth-fewest). Additionally, the Nittany Lions are in the top 22% of rush play rate and top 18% for the slowest tempos (most seconds per play).

With that said, which of the two results is the best bet? I'm slightly leaning with Penn State. This is tricky as coach James Franklin is notorious for folding in big games, but the matchup could be there against the Ducks.

This is spearheaded by the Nittany Lions' fearsome pass rush; the unit carries Pro Football Focus' eighth-best pass rushing grade and is led by Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Abdul Carter, who boasts a 91.5 pass rushing grade and is the seventh-best prospect in NFL Mock Draft Data Base's 2025 Consensus Big Board.

Oregon's pass protection looks slightly susceptible, ranking 43rd in PFF pass blocking grade. While the group has seen two top-20 pass rushing units, neither team had an edge rusher of Carter's quality. The Michigan Wolverines have the nation's top pass rush and struggled against the Ducks, but this is led by elite defensive tackles. Fending off elite edge rushers is a different ball game.

There's some real confidence about Penn State's ability to pressure Oregon. If that's the case, quarterback Dillon Gabriel's passing grade drops from 89.0 to 58.9 when he's under pressure.

Pair this with the Nittany Lions sitting in the top 18% in turnovers per game and turnover margin and we're cooking. The Ducks are in the bottom 33% in takeaways per contest, and if Penn State's pass rush has success, this should increase Oregon's chances for giving the ball away.

The Ducks' defense is also weaker against the run, ranked 27th in yards allowed per carry compared to 5th in yards allowed per passing attempt. This adds to Penn State's ability to run the ball and slow this game's tempo.

numberFire's game projections have Oregon winning by about 0.9 points. Give me the Lions to cover, paired with the under.

Nicholas Singleton Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

So far, we've been all over Penn State. If this plays out how the Nittany Lions want, that means running the ball with authority. Targeting PSU's top rusher Nicholas Singleton is another nice pairing.

His rushing prop is set at 62.5 yards while his rushing and receiving is 94.5 yards. Over Singleton's last seven games, he's averaging 31.1 receiving yards per game. His season-long rushing yards per-game average is 66.6. That adds up to 97.7 scrimmage yards.

This goes beyond just averages, though. If Penn State is running the ball with success, it's very unlikely it covers this game. The opportunity is there, for Oregon ranks 12th in EPA allowed per carry compared to 5th in EPA allowed per drop back.

The Nittany Lions' running back tandem will likely be the second-best unit the Ducks have seen behind the Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU's rushing attack is under loads of criticism right now, but it still totaled 141 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry earlier in the season against Oregon.

Penn State is second in EPA per drop back and in the top 4% of yards per passing attempt (9.2 yards). The big play threat is still there, which may cause the Ducks to be in a softer defense.

This also goes right along with the idea of Singleton feasting in the receiving game. If Oregon is worried about big plays paired with giving up only 5.8 yards per passing attempt, those check downs to Singleton should be open.

Fueled by his 82.6 PFF rushing grade and 77.9 receiving grade, Singleton's prop is a good line to pair with a successful game from Penn State.

You can also check out our latest 2024-25 College Football Playoff printable bracket, which is based on the most recent committee rankings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.