2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Lions at Eagles on Sunday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Sunday night matchup between the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Lions at Eagles Betting Picks on Sunday Night Football

Lions Moneyline (+122)

Although the Eagles' record is impressive, there are some red flags in their underlying data. I don't see those red flags with the Lions, so I like getting them to win at plus money.

Entering Week 11, the Eagles have averaged 0.08 Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play on early downs, after adjusting for schedule. The league average is 0.07, so they're a smidge above that.

The Lions, conversely, are at 0.18, which is behind only the Indianapolis Colts. Their schedule-adjusted late-down success rate -- 45.3% -- is also above the Eagles' mark of 43.4%.

In other words, the Lions have an offense that looks more sustainably solid on paper. They've also played quality defense despite a smattering of injuries on that side of the ball.

The Eagles do likely hold the edge there, given all of the key pieces they've added to their treasure chest the past few weeks. So, I can understand why they're favored with this game in Philadelphia. The gap on offense, though, is big enough where I do think the Lions are a value at this number.

Total Over 46.5 (-114)

This is a spot where having the market just below a key number of 47 plays a huge role.

I've been running my totals model since late in the 2022 season. In that span, I've had 43 instances where I've had a total within a half point of where I've got this game (48.69). Within that 43-game sample, the game has gone over 46.5 at a clip of 65.1%. When you raise that to 47.5, the win rate declines to just 55.8%. That'd still be an okay value (the implied odds at -114 are 53.3%), but the gap between 65.1% and 55.8% is significant.

The total gets as high as it is in the model thanks to the aforementioned plus efficiency from both offenses. Wind speeds projected at 10 mph do drag things down (I'd have the total at 49.6 if they were just 5 mph, for instance), but that is already accounted for.

We'll run into issues if one team has the ball late with the lead as both offenses are capable of grinding clock with efficient run games. I think the other factors outweigh the concern, though, so I'm comfortable with the over as things stand.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.