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Women's World Cup Betting: England Face Tough Test Against Denmark on Friday

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere•@ZackBussiere

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Women's World Cup Betting: England Face Tough Test Against Denmark on Friday

The group stage of the 2023 Women's World Cup continues on Friday with England back in action against Denmark and China set to clash with Haiti.

These matches will go a long way toward determining who advances from Group D, and they could have major implications for these each team's potential paths through the knockout stages.

With that in mind, let's take a look at Friday's slate.

All World Cup odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook:

Time (Eastern)
Home
Draw
Away
4:30 AMEngland (-210)+290Denmark (+600)
7:00 AMChina (-160)+270Haiti (+440)

England vs. Denmark

England opened their World Cup campaign with a 1-0 win over Haiti on Saturday. While they secured all three points with the win, the scoreline was much closer than it was expected to be.

England, the fourth-ranked team in FIFA's world rankings, was hoping for a larger goal differential against a Haiti side ranked 53rd. But while the scoreline was close, England dominated the game in every important category, including shots (21-7), shots on target (11-2), possession (75%), pass accuracy (86% to 57%), and corners (7-2). Despite that, England finished with a lead of only 2.6-0.7 on expected goals (xG), per FBRef, and their lone goal came on a penalty kick by Georgia Stanway.

While the 2.6 xG far is lower than England would have been hoping for, the 0.7 xG conceded is more concerning.

Heading into Friday's clash with Denmark, England will need to bounce back quickly. Denmark is 13th in FIFA's rankings and is coming off a 1-0 victory over China, a side ranked 14th. They secured that victory with an 89th-minute goal by Amalie Vangsgaard after a relatively evenly contested match.

Denmark held a slight edge on shots (13-9), possession (56%), pass accuracy (75% to 68%), and corners (6-4), but they tied on shots on target (2-2). On xG, they won 1.1-0.4.

England (-6000) and Denmark (-1450) currently have the best and second-best odds to advance from Group D. That is a drastic decrease in England's odds to advance before the tournament started (-20000) and a large improvement for Denmark (-350). Assuming China defeats Haiti, a loss for England could see them needing a win in their final game to advance. A loss for Denmark would put them in a similar situation, but they'd be facing a much weaker Haiti side in their final group fixture.

The Lionesses still have the third-best odds to win the whole thing (+550), but they need to take care of business against Denmark to avoid a pressure-packed showdown with China in their final match of the group stages.

England enters Friday's showdown as favorites (-210) with a draw the second-most-likely result (+290). England's Alessia Russo (+150) and Rachel Daly (+170) have the best odds to score in the match. For Denmark, Pernille Harder (+430) leads the way in goal odds, boasting the match's 11th-best odds to find the back of the net.

China vs. Haiti

China will be disappointed to have not secured a point after giving up a last-minute goal to Denmark in their first match. That loss puts them in the difficult position of needing to secure points in back-to-back matches to have any chance of advancing. Their odds to advance from Group D have dropped from +240 before the tournament to +1000 entering this match.

The path to advancing starts with securing a win over Haiti on Friday. Haiti's odds to advance improved significantly after their narrow loss to England -- from +4600 before the tournament to +1600 entering Friday. It remains to be seen if they can repeat their impressive performance from the opener, but if they can, they have a chance to pull off the upset versus China.

China enters this clash as a slight favorite (-160). To secure a result, they will need to improve in the final third. They generated fewer xG against Denmark (0.4) than Haiti did against England (0.7). They are goalless in their last four fixtures and have just one goal over their last five. That's a troubling trend entering a match against a Haiti side that just held England to zero goals from open play.

A draw is the second-most likely outcome in this match (+270), and it would be good enough to keep alive both teams' hopes of advancing to the knockout stages. A loss for either side would see them eliminated from the competition if England and Denmark draw.

China's Wang Shanshan (+195) and Zhang Linyan (+200) have the best odds to score in this one. Zhang generated 0.2 xG in China's opening match, which amounted to half of their total. For Haiti, 19-year-old Melchie Dumornay (+360) has the best odds to score and the sixth-best goal odds in the match.

Both sides will enter this fixture feeling like they have everything still to play for. China will be expected to secure all three points, while Haiti will be full of confidence after going toe-to-toe with a tournament favorite.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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