Virginia vs SMU College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 17

The Virginia Cavaliers (15-2, 4-1 ACC) will look to continue a four-game winning streak when they visit the SMU Mustangs (13-4, 2-2 ACC) on January 17, 2026 at Moody Coliseum.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Virginia vs. SMU Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, January 17, 2026
• Game time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Dallas, Texas
• Arena: Moody Coliseum

Virginia vs. SMU Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Virginia win (51.3%)

Before making an informed wager on Virginia-SMU matchup (in which Virginia is a 1.5-point favorite and the over/under has been set at 154.5 points), below are some betting insights and trends for Saturday's game.

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Virginia vs. SMU: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Virginia is 11-6-0 ATS this season.
• SMU has won eight games against the spread this year, while failing to cover nine times.
• As a 1.5-point favorite or more in 2025-26, Virginia is 8-6 against the spread compared to the 4-3 ATS record SMU puts up as a 1.5-point underdog.
• The Cavaliers have done a better job covering the spread in away games (3-1-0) than they have at home (6-4-0).
• This season, the Mustangs are 5-6-0 at home against the spread (.455 winning percentage). Away, they are 2-2-0 ATS (.500).
• Virginia is 4-1-0 against the spread in conference play this season.
• SMU has two ACC wins against the spread this year.

Virginia vs. SMU: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Virginia has been the moneyline favorite in 12 games this season and has come away with the win 10 times (83.3%) in those contests.
• This year, the Cavaliers have won 10 of 12 games when listed as at least -142 or better on the moneyline.
• SMU has a 2-4 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 33.3% of those games).
• The Mustangs have played three times as a moneyline underdog with odds of +118 or longer, and lost each game.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Virginia has a 58.7% chance of walking away with the win.

Virginia vs. SMU Head-to-Head Comparison

• Offensively, Virginia was the fifth-worst team in the country (64.8 points per game) last season. Defensively, it was 39th (66.8 points allowed per game).
• Virginia was the worst team in college basketball in rebounds per game (26.8) and 104th in rebounds allowed (30.1) last year.
• At 14.7 assists per game last year, Virginia was 93rd in the country.
• Virginia was the 25th-best team in the nation in turnovers per game (9.3) but 19th-worst in turnovers forced (9.2) last year.
• SMU posted 79.9 points per game (40th-ranked in college basketball) last year, while surrendering 71.3 points per contest (152nd-ranked).
• SMU averaged 34.7 rebounds per game (43rd-ranked in college basketball) last season, while allowing 29 rebounds per contest (53rd-ranked).
• SMU ranked 42nd in the country with 15.9 assists per game.
• With 11.5 turnovers per game, SMU ranked 221st in the nation. It forced 12 turnovers per contest, which ranked 112th in college basketball.

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