US Open Third Round Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 8/30/24

The final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open, gets underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Friday.

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Customers can receive one Boost Builder Token to use on a 3+ leg parlay, one 30% Profit Boost for a LIVE wager, and one 30% Profit Boost for any wager—all on US Open matches happening August 30th to September 1st!

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You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button.

You’ll then be awarded three tokens, which you can manually toggle-on when placing your bets. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, you can win even bigger on tennis bets with Same Game Parlays—and try new bets like Total Aces in a Match!

US Open Best Bets

Now, let’s get into the best bets on the US Open for August 30th.

Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe

Over 41.5 Total Match Games (-110)

If you're setting aside time to watch just one match on Friday, this all-American battle between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe is the one to circle.

This is a rematch of last year's quarterfinals between these two, and both sound eager for another go at each other. As Shelton himself put it, we should expect a "popcorn-type match."

While Shelton leads their head-to-head 2-0, the two went four sets in the aforementioned US Open quarterfinal bout (6-2, 3-6, 7-6, 6-2), and they went to a deciding set in the Houston title match this April (7-5, 4-6, 6-3).

Tiafoe was plodding through a pedestrian campaign for much of 2024, but he finally came alive on North American hard courts this summer, winning 8 of his last 11 matches and advancing to his first-ever Masters 1000 final in Cincinnati.

Although he ultimately fell to Jannik Sinner in that championship match, he's maintained that momentum into New York. Tiafoe won 80% of his first-serve points in a four-set victory over Aleksander Kovacevic and then cruised to a 2-0 set lead over Alexander Shevchenko that would ultimately be cut short due to Shevchenko retiring.

Shelton is also coming off an encouraging summer, reaching the round of 16 at Wimbledon and following that up with a semifinal finish at Washington and quarterfinals run at Cincinnati. He hasn't missed a beat at this US Open, either, defeating both Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut in straight sets. While a straightforward win was to be expected against the retiring Thiem, racking up 17 aces over Bautista Agut is a sign Shelton means business.

Public models are split on this matchup. Tennis Abstract gives the nod to Shelton (54% win probability), whereas Massey Ratings leans Tiafoe (52%). The game spread is just -1.5 in favor of Shelton, further showing how close this match is on paper.

These two went 38 games here a year ago. With Frances playing back up at a high standard, we should expect another competitive battle, and with just a few tighter sets this time around -- or possibly even going the distance -- they should clear this 41.5 total.

Under 32.5 Total Aces (-120)

Make no mistake, any match that has Shelton involved is likely to have its share of aces. He owns the ATP Tour's seventh-best serve rating over the last 52 weeks and averages the eighth-most aces per match (9.9). Per Tennis Abstract, Tiafoe also has the highest ace rate against (12.3%) among players inside the top 50, which is significantly higher than the 7.7% average. We did just see Shelton blow Bautista Agut off the court with 17 aces, so it's not like he hasn't been dialed in.

However, this is a rather high bar to surpass, and Tiafoe's less likely to hit double-digit aces on his end. While he's by no means a slouch at serving, he ranks 32nd in rating and 24th in aces per match (7.8). Additionally, Shelton is above average in ace rate against (6.7%), which further suggests Tiafoe won't put up a gaudy ace numbers today.

In the two matches the Americans have played, they totaled 21 aces over four sets and 14 across three sets. Even if this match goes long as we expect, we would likely need spike performances from both players to exceed this mark, which makes the under the more appealing side.

Madison Keys vs. Elise Mertens

Keys 2-0 Sets (+100)

Following a heartbreaking hamstring injury at Wimbledon that led to Madison Keys retiring in the round of 16 against eventual finalist Jasmine Paolini -- the score was 5-5 in the third set -- it was unclear how well she would be able to perform at this year's US Open. Her only post-Wimbledon match in Canada also ended in retirement, further putting her form and health into question.

Keys has been playing with her leg heavily taped, but it's safe to say she's been up to the task following swift victories over world No. 36 Katerina Siniakova (6-4, 6-1) and qualifier Maya Joint (6-4, 6-0).

Elise Mertens could prove to be a tougher test, but Keys holds a 3-1 advantage in their head-to-head. While the American did lose their most recent meeting over three sets in 2023, her three wins all came in straight sets.

Prior to her injury, Keys was rolling at Wimbledon, winning her first three matches without dropping a set, and she also performed well during the clay swing, going 13-4 and winning a title in Strasbourg. Two of those clay losses came against four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek, so her results may have been even better had she avoided the Queen of Clay.

On the other hand, Mertens came into the US Open with a 21-20 record, failing to string together more than one or two victories in a row since the Australian Open in January. Wins over Veronika Kudermotva and Ajla Tomlkanovic at this US Open -- neither of whom performed well this summer -- don't necessarily move the needle much, either.

Although Tennis Abstract gives Keys as just a 54% win probability, Massey Ratings projects a lofty 84% chance. The 72% implied odds as a -255 favorite lies somewhere in the middle and could be the more realistic expectation.

Given that Keys was playing well before her leg issue and seems to be managing it fine thus far, backing her at plus odds for another straight-sets win feels like the play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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