US Open Quarterfinals Best Bets, Including a FanDuel Promo 9/3/24

The US Open is into the second week, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the coming days. The quarterfinals get underway on Tuesday.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the US Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Reward Stack for those betting the US Open today!

Customers can receive one 30% Profit Boost for a LIVE wager and one 30% Profit Boost for ANY wager on US Open tennis matches happening September 3rd!

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You can claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and clicking the “Claim Now” button.

You’ll then be awarded the two tokens, which you can manually toggle-on when placing your bets. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, you can win even bigger on tennis bets with Same Game Parlays—and try new bets like Total Aces in a Match!

US Open Best Bets

Now, let’s get into the best bets on the US Open for September 3rd.

Qinwen Zheng vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-124)

Many players who participated in the Olympics have struggled at the US Open following the late transition to hard courts, but gold medalist Qinwen Zheng has instead capped her summer off with a deep run into the quarterfinals.

However, it's hasn't been a smooth road to get here as Zheng has gone to a deciding set in three of her four US Open matches, and two of them involved a tie break. Her last encounter, a rematch of the Olympic final versus Donna Vekic, went 2 hours and 50 minutes and finished at 2:15 am -- the latest women's finish in US Open history.

Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka has carried over the dominant form she showed in her Cincinnati championship run before coming to New York. Not only has she dropped just one set in her four US Open rounds, but it's the only set she's dropped over a nine-match win streak.

At the start of the year, we saw Sabalenka win the Australian Open without dropping a set, and it's a reminder of just how dangerous she is on hard courts when she's dialed in. She made the decision to skip the Olympics to concentrate on the hard-court season, and her decision is paying off.

The Belarusian owns a 2-0 head-to-head record over Zheng, defeating her in the aforementioned Australian Open's title match while also knocking her out of last year's US Open quarterfinals. In both cases, Sabalenka won in straight sets and covered this spread.

Tennis Abstract projects Aryna to win 68% of the time while Massey Ratings bumps that up to 84%.

While Zheng has done well to make it into the second week, fatigue could be a factor after juggling multiple surfaces all summer, and her recent late finish will do her no favors. Add in that Sabalenka is playing well and is undefeated versus Zheng, and everything points to a fairly routine victory for Aryna.

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Frances Tiafoe

Over 39.5 Total Match Games (-110)

An American man hasn't won the US Open since Andy Roddick in 2003, so having four Americans still alive in the round of 16 -- particularly with tournament favorites Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic already out -- looked like a golden opportunity for someone to break through.

But just two remain in these quarterfinals, and with Frances Tiafoe playing in the final match of the night session, there's a possibility he's the last man standing if Taylor Fritz is unable to get past Alexander Zverev this afternoon.

This is easily Tiafoe's favorite major as it's his third straight run into the US open quarterfinals, and he was a semifinalist in 2022. Like Sabalenka, he skipped the Olympics with the US Open in mind, and he's completely turned around a forgettable 2024 campaign with a late resurgence this summer.

However, Tiafoe has faced plenty of adversity to reach the quarters. Outside of benefiting from a second-round retirement, his other three matches have gone 41, 54, and 40 games. Still, grinding out wins over countryman Ben Shelton (previously 2-0 vs. Tiafoe) and Alexei Popyrin (upset Djokovic in the third round) are results we wouldn't have seen from Tiafoe a couple of months ago.

Grigor Dimitrov will be another tough test for the American, who's turned back the clock and entered this event with a 21-7 record on hard courts this season. Dimitrov took advantage of a favorable draw and cruised through the first three rounds, but in the round of 16, he just narrowly bested world No. 6 Andrey Rublev in a rollercoaster match 6-3, 7-6(3), 1-6, 3-6, 6-3.

While Dimitrov leads their head-to-head 3-1, three of those four matches came between 2018-19, so it's hard to read too much into it. If we're to take any positive from their history, though, their lone meeting in a hard-court major, the 2019 Australian Open, was a competitive four-set win across 50 games.

Both Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings favor Dimitrov with 75% and 72% win probabilities, respectively.

This makes it difficult to side with the American in an upset, but he's proven throughout this event that he's not about to go down without a fight. I like Tiafoe's chances of putting Dimitrov to the test over four or five sets, leading to the over on total match games. Expect some fireworks in Arthur Ashe Stadium tonight.

Over 31.5 Total Aces (-110)

According to Tennis Abstract, among players inside the top 50, both Dimitrov and Tiafoe are among the top 20 players in ace rate at 10.3% and 9.8%, respectively. But at the same time, Dimitrov also has the 12th-highest ace rate against in that sample (9.0%), and Tiafoe has the very worst mark (12.3%).

In other words, we should see plenty of aces in this one.

Last round, both players faced opponents who aren't all that different in these metrics. The result was Dimitrov-Rublev totaling 38 aces in their five-setter, and Tiafoe-Popyrin also reached 38 over just four sets.

If we're working under the assumption that this match goes long, we should see these two combine for a boatload of aces again, making the over an appealing option at this line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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