Under-the-Radar FanDuel NFL DFS Tournament Picks for Super Bowl LIX

With a tight spread and solid total listed for Super Bowl LIX, the stage is set for an entertaining NFL DFS single-game slate between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

Be sure to check out our overall breakdown of the slate's top plays.

But winning the top prize in tournaments often requires taking a chance on players who could fly under the radar. Which contrarian options stand out in this year's Super Bowl?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Contrarian NFL DFS Plays for Super Bowl LIX on FanDuel

MVP Tournament Pivots

Before going any further, we need to be realistic about MVP expectations.

If we check out FanDuel Research's NFL DFS projections, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Saquon Barkley tower over everyone else, and it's more than likely one of them emerges with the top fantasy score. Barkley could be particularly popular, as he was rostered at MVP in around half of lineups on the NFC Championship slate, and in some cases, he well exceeded that.

With that in mind from a game theory perspective, if Barkley comes anywhere close to that kind of roster percentage again, getting Hurts or Mahomes at a fraction of that will already be worthwhile in tournaments. If you're making just a handful of tourney lineups, opting for a quarterback at MVP might be the optimal route in the hopes that one outperforms Barkley and vaults you past a good chunk of the field.

That being said, those three players will occupy the vast majority of MVP slots, leaving literally everyone else with MVP roster percentages in the single digits. If someone outside of that trio emerges with the best score, lineups with that surprise player at MVP will have a great chance of finishing at or near the very top.

Taking that into account...

A.J. Brown, Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $12,500

If we're swinging for the fences, A.J. Brown is someone to consider as a contrarian MVP.

Due to the nature of this run-heavy Eagles offense, we've witnessed Brown's wide range of outcomes in this postseason alone, as he's tallied 1.5, 2.4, and 18.6 FanDuel points. There's no question that he carries a great deal of risk as an MVP.

And yet he has the slate's fourth-best projection, and his market shares have remained elite despite the up-and-down results. Over those three games, he's amassed a 29.0% target share, 59.1% air yards share, 40.0% red zone target share, and 50.0% end zone target share.

In the event that Kansas City is actually able to slow down Barkley and/or force Philadelphia to throw in a negative game script, there's a path toward Brown putting up big numbers. The Chiefs enter the big game ranked 20th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, and we've occasionally seen Hurts take to the air more when needed.

Brown has logged 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown on four occasions this season, and those performances resulted in 23.6, 23.4, 22.9, and 24.0 FanDuel points. If he's able to produce a similar output on Sunday but can luck into a second TD, it could open the door to him finishing with the night's top score.

Xavier Worthy, Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $11,500

For a contrarian MVP from the Chiefs, Travis Kelce is probably the first name that comes to mind -- and his career postseason history certainly backs that -- but Xavier Worthy is also someone to consider and might even be the better choice.

Following an uptick in snaps that began in Week 14 (excluding Week 18), Worthy has led the team in target share (24.8%), red zone target share (37.8%), and yards per route run (1.97). While his 18.1% air yards share and 4.8-yard aDOT are less exciting marks, his usage near the goal line coupled with the 1-3 designed runs he's given per game boosts his upside.

Much like A.J. Brown, we likely need a multi-touchdown game from Worthy for him to outperform the slate's Big Three, which is something he's done just once all year (Week 1).

But his recent usage actually gives him a better shot at this than most might expect. In terms of red zone opportunities (carries plus targets), the rookie has a solid 25.7% share in the previous six-game sample, and he's still at 25.0% if we narrow that down to the postseason.

While those marks fall well short of the season-long red zone opportunity shares of Barkley (38.8%) and Hurts (28.1% excluding an injury-shortened Week 16), Worthy's recent usage arguably gives him the third-best red zone role between the two teams.

Ultimately, even with the uptick in playing time, Worthy has averaged 70.7 scrimmage yards over his last six games, which pales in comparison to the 145.3 yards Barkley averaged this season. There's no question this will be an uphill battle.

But Worthy has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, and considering the opportunities he's getting, that isn't entirely a fluke. If he's able to cash in on second trip into the end zone, perhaps he can make some MVP-worthy noise.

Flex Tournament Pivots

Devonta Smith, Eagles

FanDuel Salary: $11,000

DeVonta Smith has fallen short of double-digit FanDuel points in all three of the Eagles' playoff games, and with his salary not quite dipping into value territory, it wouldn't be surprising if most of the public flocks to Brown, Worthy, and Kelce at slightly higher salaries or opts for a $1,000 discount with tight end Dallas Goedert.

And truth be told, Smith's market shares this postseason haven't been exciting. Over those three games, he's gotten a 19.4% target share and 15.3% air yards share with zero looks in the red zone.

Even if we expand to the six games with all of Brown, Goedert, and Smith healthy this season, Devonta barely bumps up to a 21.3% target share, 20.0% air yards share, and 11.8% red zone target share.

Add in the raw volume risks that already come for all pass catchers in Philadelphia's offense, and it's tough to get behind Smith.

But the one reason to consider taking a chance with him is his matchup out of the slot.

As our Austin Swaim noted in his Super Bowl X-Factors piece, Smith led the Eagles in slot snaps this season, and that means he might be able to take advantage of a Chiefs defense that coughed up the sixth-most expected points added per drop back to slot receivers (via NFL Next Gen Stats). That's definitely noteworthy.

Smith's less-than-stellar usage of late still makes him a bit riskier than the other pass catchers in his salary range. However, we shouldn't overlook this potential matchup to exploit, and keep in mind that his fantasy projection isn't that far behind Brown, Worthy, and Kelce.

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs

FanDuel Salary: $10,500

Let's first acknowledge that there's a whole lot working against Kareem Hunt.

He's in a timeshare with Isiah Pacheco and Samaje Perine, and the matchup is awful against an Eagles defense that's allowed the fewest FanDuel points to running backs. His salary is also in the same range as the top pass catchers, yet he's projected for fewer FanDuel points than all of Brown, Worthy, Kelce, Smith, and Goedert.

Still, Hunt is riding a four-game touchdown streak, which has led to 14.9, 8.0, 11.1, and 13.5 FanDuel points.

While his backfield role isn't amazing, he's the lead running back on the ever-so-slight favorite, and he's the one K.C. seems to trust the most near the goal line.

Over the last four games, Hunt has playing 49.6% of the snaps, and that bumps up to a 56.8% snap rate in the red zone. In that sample, he leads the team with a 37.5% red zone rush share with Mahomes being his main competition (33.3%).

Perhaps the best sign for Hunt was how he was used in the AFC Championship. In that game, he saw 17 carries and a target while logging a 55.6% snap rate and 61.5% red zone snap rate.

Hunt has a poor matchup and imperfect role, and even with increased volume the last time, he reached just 70 scrimmage yards, so he pretty much has to score a touchdown to be relevant. But he tends to be on the field for Kansas City's red zone snaps, giving him a reasonable shot of adding to his touchdown streak. This is also backed by him having the fourth-shortest odds to score an any time touchdown (+145).

Hunt was rostered in around 20% of lineups on the AFC Championship single-game slate. While his bump in volume might trigger an increase in popularity, he's unlikely to see a significant shift, which makes him an intriguing option in tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.