UFC 310 DFS Picks: Pantoja vs. Asakura

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC 310 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Chase Hooper ($23)

Once a frail 19-year-old at 145 pounds, Chase Hooper has turned into a man -- and a monster -- at lightweight.

Hooper has mowed through each of his last three lightweight foes for two finishes and a combined +156 striking differential. Two of the three were multi-time winners, as well.

This matchup with Clay Guida, 42, feels like a softball. Guida was submitted by Claudio Puellas (5-3 UFC) in 2021, and Hooper (2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes) is well-versed in ground attacks.

"The Dream" is -200 to win inside the distance for a reason.

Bryce Mitchell ($22)

Though Bryce Mitchell suffered a nasty knockout loss in his last fight, the UFC has set him up for a grappler's delight to rebound.

Importantly, Kron Gracie's 0% knockdown rate at least implies he won't have to again fear mammoth power coming his way. At his best, Mitchell is a high-volume takedown artist (8.41 attempts per 15 minutes) that lands a decent clip of them (41%). He's also added 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

"Gracie" is a legendary name in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Kron hasn't really lived up to that expectation with one sub attempt in three fights. The 36-year-old has struggled to get fights to the ground, resulting in an ugly -3.08 striking success rate (SSR) and two straight lopsided losses.

Mitchell is skilled on the ground and a significantly better analytical wrestler and striker (+0.67 SSR). He should dominate this fight if he avoids a sneaky submission.

Shavkat Rakhmonov ($21)

"The Nomad" has never stepped foot in a pro fight and even seen the judges' scorecards -- much less lose.

That's one reason why Shavkat Rakhmonov is -400 to beat Ian Machado Garry in Saturday's defacto interim title at welterweight. The winner gets the next shot at champion Belal Muhammad.

Rakhmonov is a terrifying mix of patient, powerful striking (61% accuracy) and surgical submission danger (1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes). It's no surprise he's shown the ability to finish fighters both ways in six UFC starts.

Machado Garry (8-0 UFC) could be a popular underdog pick, but I don't trust Garry's size or takedown defense (69%) against the wrecking ball from Kazakhstan.

While Shavkat's betting lines might be blown out of proportion, I've still got him as 50.5% likely to finish Garry as one of the best DFS picks on the card.

Dominick Reyes ($20)

I've long maintained Anthony Smith might be one of the worst ranked fighters in UFC, so going with Dom Reyes to beat him this weekend is a no-brainer.

However, the DFS component could be a little tricky. Smith has shifted into a survival mode of sorts, sacrificing offense to see the full distance in three of his last four losses.

It'll be interesting to see how that mix's with the elite knockout power of "The Devastator". Reyes' 1.43% knockdown rate is massive, and he's scored a KO in three of his last five wins. However, Reyes' own recent skid of knockout losses (four in the last five fights) makes you wonder if he also will be a bit cautious.

I've surprisingly got this light heavyweight bout modeled to go the distance 49.1% of the time. FanDuel is more optimistic Reyes finds a knockout (-115 odds) than I am, but he's still a solid flex play.

Alexandre Pantoja ($20)

The one fight I couldn't model on this card is for all the marbles.

That's because Kai Asakura, competing for the flyweight title on Saturday, has never appeared in a UFC octagon. He's got nothing to model, but I'm pretty sure he's below Alexandre Pantoja's level.

Pantoja has turned aside two top-five foes in three title fights, and Asakura has regional losses -- by finish -- to both Kyoji Horiguchi (7-1 UFC) and Manel Kape (4-3 UFC). Those two have a fraction of the UFC success that "The Cannibal" has amassed.

As mentioned in my UFC 310 best bets, I really like a Pantoja finish in his most dominant title defense yet. He stopped five foes in eight fights before entering a championship setting.

Value Plays to Target

Nate Landwehr ($16)

Pay-per-view events with absurd, showcase favorites often force favorites into a "value" salary, and Nate Landwehr's a great play at this mark.

I've got Landwehr 61.0% likely to win and 36.0% likely to find a finish against Dooho Choi, who has been knocked out in two of his last four starts.

Even if he doesn't find a finish, "The Train" has shown to be durable with just two career KO losses coming via sensational flying knees. He's third on the card in FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses (4.48) even if this one heads to the cards.

I see him as a must in cash-game formats.

Michael Chiesa ($14)

"The Maverick" likely doesn't get much credit for being the latest to submit Tony Ferguson, who is on an eight-fight losing skid. I still can't believe his salary is lower than his opponent's.

Michael Chiesa's undoing in recent fights has been submission danger, but his opponent, Max Griffin, has virtually none. He hasn't secured a submission in 16 UFC starts and averages just 0.3 attempts per 15 minutes. Chiesa (1.0 per 15 minutes) has that skill advantage of these two.

With that the case, Maverick Mike has posted 3.35 takedowns per 15 minutes with tremendous efficiency (51%), and Griffin's 69% takedown D isn't spectacular.

At 39 years old, it's been since March 2021 that Griffin secured a knockout. This fight is -160 to go the distance, and I've modeled it 71.0% likely to do so. If that's the case, there's a good chance Chiesa has controlled it.

Randy Brown ($12)

Bryan Battle's hype train could go careening off the rails this weekend.

"The Butcher" used a sloppy brawl to dispatch Kevin Jousset (2-1 UFC) in September, but Jousset's 0% knockdown rate was never going to win that firefight. Randy Brown (0.67%) has at least shown enough power through three UFC knockouts to dissuade that sort of exchanging.

Battle's defense is a huge problem -- whether striking (43%) or defending takedowns (52%).

Plus, level of competition for these two is quite stark. My model estimates Brown in the 68th percentile at welterweight compared to Battle in the 48th percentile.

Though I've still got Battle favored, Brown shouldn't be such a distant underdog to win this fight. It's hard not to love him at this salary winning 9 of his last 11 fights and seeing Battle's flaws in plain sight.

Aljamain Sterling ($12)

One of my least favorite model results this weekend was fading Movsar Evloev, but I realized I -- like so many it seems -- was biased.

Evloev has been to a decision -- some of them tight -- in all nine UFC fights and has zero career knockdowns. Aljamain Sterling has never been submitted in 28 pro fights. We're sort of out of ways for Evloev to win this fight convincingly.

Meanwhile, Sterling's +2.31 SSR is third in the 145-pound rankings to only Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, and he's a sensational grappler that just landed eight takedowns on Calvin Kattar. Kattar's takedown D (72%) is better on paper than Evloev's (71%) with more attempts faced.

It's not crazy to think "Funkmaster" can pull this upset. My model has him the tiniest favorite (50.8%) to squeak by Evloev in a fight destined for the cards, which likely pays off this salary even in a loss.

Alexander Volkov ($11)

Ciryl Gane dispatched Alexander Volkov in a five-round bout in 2021, which explains a lot of this betting line.

However, Gane's +15 striking differential was the lowest of a win in his career that went at least one full round. Add in the fact that their fight is three rounds on Saturday, and there's certainly some variance that Volkov could sneak out two rounds to win.

That's even before you get to Volkov's superior resumé improvements since their first fight. The Russian has the only top-five win of either fighter since the bout, defeating Sergei Pavlovich with a +37 striking differential. Plus, he added his first UFC win by submission over Tai Tuivasa.

Gane looked entirely lost grappling with Jon Jones two fights ago. If Volkov has improved dramatically there, it could be enough to score an emphatic win in the rematch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.