UFC 310 Best Bets and Predictions: Pantoja vs. Asakura

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC 310 Betting Picks

Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin

Chiesa to Win (-115)
Chiesa by Points (+210)

I was able to model 13 of 14 fights on this card with one notable exception, inviting some action on the prelims. Welterweight veterans Michael Chiesa and Max Griffin will clash in the card's third fight, and I'm not sure oddsmakers have the right favorite in it.

"Maverick Mike" probably doesn't get a ton of credit for a first-round submission of Tony Ferguson, on an eight-fight skid, in August, but formerly ranked at 170, Chiesa's excellent wrestling has returned 3.35 takedowns and 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, landing the mat returns with excellent efficiency (51%) when Griffin's takedown D (68%) is just okay.

Griffin also lacks what has been Chiesa's undoing. Chiesa has been submitted in four of his last five defeats, and "Pain" only attempts 0.3 per 15 minutes. Max hasn't record a win via submission in 16 UFC appearances.

I've got Chiesa 52.4% likely to win Saturday's fight, and it comes via decision 39.1% (+155 implied) of the time. If you missed the extreme line movement (from +114 on Sunday), Maverick's points prop is the best way to get him now.

Bryan Battle vs. Randy Brown

Brown to Win (+172)

Betting UFC requires perilously losing money when skeptical of surging fighters, but I just can't hop on Bryan Battle's bandwagon yet.

"The Butcher" cashed as a sizable favorite over Kevin Jousset (2-1 UFC) in September, but the inexperienced Frenchman is his only welterweight win still on the roster. The idea he's a massive favorite over a veteran like Randy Brown with obvious warts is preposterous.

Battle's striking (43%) and takedown (53%) defense are both poor, and his win over Jousset, with no career knockdowns, came from winning a sloppy slugfest. Brown's power (0.61% knockdown rate) is at least a modest deterrent to that style of fight.

Plus, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw Brown grapple. He's landed two takedowns in his last three fights, and that was Rinat Fakhretdinov's smooth path through Battle. Rinat landed seven over the course of the bout.

This line has widened throughout the week, but Brown's recent setbacks have all been related to his durability when neither of these guys have supreme power. I've got Brown at 38.4% likely to win this fight, which is up from these 36.8% implied odds.

Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling

Fight Goes the Distance (-330)
Sterling to Win (+194)
Sterling by Points (+370)

The worst part about a model is doing something that feels like the opposite of what you want to do -- but there's always a reason why.

After Aljamain Sterling was knocked out by Sean O'Malley two fights ago, I wanted to play Movsar Evloev for his first career knockout here. The problem? It doesn't make any sense at price based on Evloev's history. All eight of Movsar's UFC wins have come via decision with zero career knockdowns.

Instead, Sterling might not only have the ability to hang in this fight, but he could win. Evloev has ceded 2.67 takedowns per 15 minutes to grapplers who attempt at least 5.00 per 15 minutes. Aljo (8.56) definitely qualifies, and he just landed eight takedowns in his 145-pound debut against Calvin Kattar. Kattar (72% takedown D) has better analytical wrestling defense than Evloev (71%) despite the latter's soft strength of schedule.

Projecting this grappling-heavy fight to go the distance 86.8% of the time, one of the fighters shouldn't be +194 to win it. My model, looking at Sterling's superior striking volume and level of competition, actually believes he should be a tiny favorite (50.8%) to come out on top.

Models remove bias, which I believe was impacting my initial judgement of this fight -- as the line indicates has happened to others.

Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov

Volkov to Win (+290)

UFC believes it's time to rematch Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov, and I couldn't agree more.

Volkov's striking differential (-20) was the best of any opponent that Gane has defeated, and that came over a five-round bout. This one will only be three rounds, ratcheting up the variance that Volkov could win at least a pair of rounds.

Frankly, I also believe the 36-year-old Russian has shown more well-rounded improvement than Gane since their 2021 fight. He scored his first UFC submission over Tai Tuivasa, and his most recent performance was the only top-five win for either since that first scrap. He demolished Sergei Pavlovich for a +37 striking differential in a unanimous decision.

Gane was easily submitted by a weathered-looking Jon Jones two fights ago, inviting some concerns that Volkov's grappling improvements could make a huge difference.

While I've modeled Volkov as an underdog (40.6% likely to win), this line is simply too wide. I want to make sure to take a moneyline when I see the decision (+490) and submission (+2900) as viable options.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry

Fight Doesn't Start Round 4 (-120)
Rakhmonov Wins in Round 1, 2, or 3 (+115)

I didn't really know what to expect plugging in these pair of welterweights that I've always presumed were both a bit overvalued by light strengths of schedule.

Shavkat Rakhmonov has been 170 pounds' boogeyman since his arrival from Kazakhstan, maintaining a 100% pro finishing rate (18 fights) well into his UFC stint. "The Nomad" is a terrifying mix methodical offense with elite striking accuracy (61%) and tremendous grappling pressure (1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes). His low striking D (51%) hasn't caused a wobble in six starts, either.

Ian Machado Garry is an intriguing test for him. The brash Irishman has always told us he was coming through an 8-0 start -- even if his resemblance to Conor McGregor earned him a free pass or two with average odds to win of -332 in all eight fights as a favorite. Garry's +2.23 striking success rate (SSR) is a show of lethal striking with modest power (0.75% knockdown rate) at his best.

Machado Garry is likely the better fighter at distance in this one, but Rakhmonov's size and three-inch edge in reach will make him competitive. My biggest fear for "The Future" comes in the grappling department, where he's produced a mere 69% takedown D before this most pronounced threat.

McGregor, O'Malley, and other brash stars tend to shine in these moments, but Rakhmonov's iron chin and well-rounded skillset are the reason he's a huge favorite. Hey, those other two were undone by grapplers from Eastern Europe, too.

I've got Rakhmonov as 61.3% likely to win this fight, so the moneyline alone is a pass. Yet, 67.8% odds (-210 implied) in the model that this fight doesn't start Round 4 invite a play on this plus-money price to back Rakhmonov, who I'm not sure I'd want a late ticket behind in his first five-round fight anyway.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura

Pantoja by KO/TKO/Submission (-110)

Ironically, the only fight I couldn't model on this card was the main event. It's because we've never seen Kai Asakura in a UFC-affiliated setting.

Asakura is a two-division champion from the Rizin promotion in Japan, and his UFC debut has been anticipated for a while. I'm just not so sure it should be in a title setting. He was finished by both Kyoji Horiguchi (7-1 UFC) and Manel Kape (4-3 UFC) overseas but does have a first-round stoppage over Alatengheili (5-2-1 UFC) on the ledger at 125 pounds.

We're now talking about the best of the best, though, in flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja is now 3-0 in UFC title bouts, including wins over top-five contenders Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval.

All have come via decision, and as I've said before, the champion isn't perfect. While his grappling (2.61 takedowns landed per 15) is sensational, "The Cannibal" has a 50% striking D and +0.44 SSR that just aren't the normal standard for someone wearing UFC gold.

Ultimately, I think this is strategic by president Dana White, who loves making a mockery of competitors' champions to prove UFC's superiority. This is a major step back in competition for Pantoja, who entered his first title fight on a streak of five finishes in eight starts. Asakura is a good fighter, but he's been stopped by foes with a fraction of Pantoja's UFC success.

Whether by ground-and-pound attacks or a patented submission from the back, I'm expecting Pantoja's most dominant title defense yet.

And now...Big fights just got even bigger! You can combine bets from one fight like who will win, how the fight will end, if it will go the distance & more into a UFC Same Game Parlay!

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.