The UFC is set for a pay-per-view weekend, headlined by a clash between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, a rematch after a Poirier win in 2018 by TKO.

With what is sure to be an action-packed main event, UFC 291 promises to feature some memorable moments and some coin-flip matchups.

But what we need to hone in on here is the best daily fantasy UFC plays on the card.

UFC 291 Date and Start Time

• Date: July 29, 2023
• Start Times:
  • Early Prelims Start Time: 6:30 p.m. Eastern
  • Prelims Start Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Main Card Start Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern
• How to Watch: ESPN+/ESPN/ABC/PPV

UFC 291 DFS Picks

Miranda Maverick ($21)

As a -290 favorite to win (based on the UFC betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook), Miranda Maverick ($21) is one of the heaviest favorites on the card (third-heaviest, to be clear), and that's a great starting point.

Although Maverick holds a lower-end significant-strike-landed-per-minute (SLpM) rate for the card (3.82), her opponent, Priscila Cachoeira ($10) has absorbed 7.85 SLpM (a.k.a SApM) during her time in the UFC and has a 46% strike defense.

Notably, Cachoeira has a 4-1-0 record in her past five fights with three of her wins coming by KO/TKO.

But whether it's taking advantage of gaps in strike defense or utilizing a top-tier takedown-per-15-minute (TD/15) rate, Maverick can score. She just needs to avoid the hands of Zombie Girl.

Dustin Poirier ($20)

A main-eventer, Dustin Poirier ($20) is in line to score fantasy points against Justin Gaethje ($17).

Poirier (-152) is moderately favored in the main event.

Gaethje absorbs 7.66 significant strikes per minute, second only to Cachoeira on the slate. Gaethje lands 7.38 per minute, though. That's also second on the slate.

Those numbers are 5.51 and 4.25, respectively, for Poirier.

There's risk here with Poirier -- but also upside.

Bobby Green ($23)

Bobby Green sits at the top of the salary pool on FanDuel this week with a $23 salary, making him one of five fighters with a $20-plus salary.

Green will look to convert that salary into a win against Tony Ferguson ($8 -- the lowest-salaried fighter on the card). Ferguson has lost five straight bouts since May 2020, three of which ended early.

As for Green, he is 2-2-0 (1) in his past five fights yet is the largest favorite (-420 odds to win at FanDuel Sportsbook) on the UFC 291 card.

This one likely could go the distance (-110 odds to do so), yet the floor should be pretty high for Green, making him a strong building block.

Roman Kopylov ($18)

The second-most likely match result on the card -- trailing just Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($19) by KO/TKO at +105 odds -- is Roman Kopylov ($18) by KO/TKO (+125) over Claudio Ribeiro ($12).

Both fighters in this match are strong strikers (4.52 SLpM for Kopylov and 4.22 for Ribeiro), yet the defense favors Kopylov: 60% strike defense to 38% for Ribeiro.

This match is -280 to end early, too.

Michael Chiesa ($14)

Michael Chiesa ($14) is a +120 underdog against Kevin Holland ($16), who averages 4.12 SLpM at a 52% accuracy rate.

That could pose a problem for Chiesa, and the most likely outcome here is Holland by KO/TKO (+170).

Chiesa has lost by KO/TKO just once in his career.

Chiesa's most likely path to victory -- based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds -- is by points (+310).

Though Chiesa has the second-lowest SApM on the card (1.67), he has the highest takedown-per-15-minute rate (3.39).

Holland's 50% takedown defense rate (second-worst on the card) will be tested.

Derrick Lewis ($11)

Yes, Lewis is on the wrong end of the most likely outcome on the board (again, Marcos Rogerio de Lima by KO/TKO is +105).

However, Lewis to win by KO/TKO is a respectable +260 itself.

He makes sense as a tournament pivot play in case he can land an early knockout and should be relatively unpopular due to the odds he gets finished early himself.

Others to Consider

• Jake Matthews ($21)
• Michel Pereira ($13)
• Derrick Lewis ($11)

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.