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The Race for the West's No. 1 Seed Could Come Down to the Wire

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath

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Unlike the Eastern Conference -- whose Boston Celtics hold the best record in basketball and a 6.5-game lead over the East's second seed Cleveland Cavaliers -- the Western Conference is totally up for grabs.

With two teams currently tied at the top and two more teams lurking just behind them, the race for the top seed in the Western Conference could come down to the final regular season buzzer in April. Let's take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook's Western Conference No. 1 seed odds market to see how the public thinks this competitive conference will shake out.

Western Conference One Seed Betting Odds

Team
Record
nERD
Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder41-1776.1 (2nd)+150
Minnesota Timberwolves41-1772.7 (3rd)+190
Denver Nuggets39-1961.9 (8th)+330
Los Angeles Clippers37-1966.2 (5th)+550

Oklahoma City Thunder (+150)

The rebuild is finally over, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are now the favorites to finish the regular season as the top seed in the West. And considering that their lineup is one of the youngest groups in the league, it seems like they'll be around for a long time to come. That's pretty cool.

According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, their 41-17 record (second-best in basketball) is well-deserved, as their 76.1 nERD rating ranks second-best, as well. Comparing their nERD rating across the league, the Thunder appear to be closer to the Celtics' level (-2.1 point differential), than the Minnesota Timberwolves are to them (-3.4 differential). The 9.9-nERD-point gap between them and the Los Angeles Clippers isn't far off from the gap between the Clippers and the Orlando Magic (12th), either.

Arguably the nicest part for the Thunder is that they've already wrapped up their series with the other top teams we'll be talking about here. In other words, they should have a relatively easy time coasting to the playoffs compared to some of their fiercest competition for the top seed.

Tankathon ranks their remaining schedule as the 10th-easiest slate in the league, giving them a leg up on the field. And considering that they are riding a conference-best six-game win streak, it makes sense that they have the best odds of winning the top spot in the conference.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+190)

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing some excellent ball this season. They're tied with the Thunder at 41-17 after splitting their regular season series against the team 2-2 and have the third-best nERD rating. They've played the best defense in the league, have taken the Celtics to overtime twice, and haven't lost any games to either of the Denver Nuggets or Clippers yet.

So why are their odds of finishing first in the Western Conference worse than the Thunder's? It might be because of their schedule. They have multiple remaining games against elite teams like the Nuggets, Cavs, and Clippers, and still have multiple games versus competitive teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns, who will happily knock down a top seed when given the chance. And of the games they have remaining against those teams, 7 of those 11 will be on the road.

They're still one of the league's best teams this season, but they simply have a tougher road ahead of them than the Thunder do. While the Wolves are battling it out with other teams vying for the top spot, the Thunder have already fought most of their toughest battles this season.

Denver Nuggets (+330)

The market clearly seems to like the Denver Nuggets, whose +330 odds to win the conference are still pretty close to the head of the pack despite their third-place 39-19 record. And who could blame them? Even as they trail the Thunder and the Wolves by two games, there's an inevitability to Nikola Jokic and company.

Obviously, the team with the two-time MVP playing at MVP-frontrunner levels (-135 odds) has a shot to win the conference, but they still have some work to do. By numberFire's nERD metric, they've played like the eighth-best team in the NBA this season. Moreover, their three-game losing streak heading into the All-Star break showed us a lineup that seemed more fragile than expected without a fully healthy roster.

The real pivot point for Denver is that they have three remaining bouts against the Timberwolves on their schedule -- those games could determine the shape of the conference. The teams haven't met up since early November in a game that saw Denver lose by 21 points in Minnesota.

If you like the reigning champs' chances of pulling off a sweep against the current top seed in the West, now might be a good time to get some action on Denver.

Los Angeles Clippers (+550)

When Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy, the Los Angeles Clippers are a force to be reckoned with. And now with James Harden rounding out the starting lineup and two of the top contenders for Sixth Man of the Year with both Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook excelling off the bench, they even have the depth behind their stars to push for a title.

They've been good enough to claim the top spot in the Pacific Division, but their +550 odds to win the one seed in the West imply that the market isn't so high on their chances of leapfrogging the Nuggets and usurping both the Timberwolves and the Thunder over the final months of the season.

As good as the Clippers have been, they still have one concern that some of the other top Western Conference teams don't -- their age. The Clippers are the oldest team in the NBA this season, and it seems fair to wonder whether their injury-prone cast of veterans will hold up down the stretch.

The depth we mentioned earlier could help them soften the blow a potential injury could cause (especially compared to previous Clippers seasons), but they have also dropped four of their last seven games, including two losses to other competitive Western Conference teams after the All-Star break. Anxious Clippers fans might be starting to worry that their veterans are running out of gas.

That said, numberFire's metrics believe the Clippers have played better than the Nuggets this year, ranking Los Angeles as the fifth-best team in the NBA. And the betting market actually believes them to have the second-best odds (+230) to win the Western Conference in the playoffs. They might have the longest odds of claiming the one seed, but they're far from a longshot.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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