Steelers at Ravens Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Wild Card Weekend

On Saturday at 8:00PM ET, the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. The postseason is a fun time to play single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Steelers at Ravens NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

With the Ravens coming in as nearly double-digit home favorites, Lamar Jackson ($17,000) is the obvious headliner at MVP, followed by teammate Derrick Henry ($16,500).

Jackson is the only player pegged for 20+ FanDuel points in our NFL DFS projections, and that might be lowballing him considering he's averaged 26.1 points per game this season. Lamar recorded 45 total touchdowns and is the first player to ever reach 4,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in the same season. The only downside is what's likely to be absurd MVP popularity -- and even then he'll be tough to fade.

Following a midseason lull, Henry wrapped up the regular season scoring 22.9, 26.5, and 32.1 FanDuel points. It's no secret he tends to excel in positive game scripts, and he should have exactly that on Saturday. While Pittsburgh ranks sixth in schedule-adjusted rush defense, the aforementioned 22.9-point outing came against them in Week 16 behind a whopping 189 scoreless scrimmage yards. Henry's rushing yards prop (99.5) and anytime touchdown odds (-190) further give us reasons to be bullish.

If Pittsburgh makes a game of this, this theoretically means a nice outing from Russell Wilson ($13,000), who's the one other player projected for over 15 FanDuel points. The trouble is that Wilson has exceeded 20 FanDuel points just twice in 11 games, so he would likely need a real outlier performance to surpass both Jackson and Henry. Making matters worse is that the Ravens' defense, which was once easy to pick on through the air, has moved up to 10th in schedule-adjusted pass defense.

From a game theory perspective, a lower-rostered MVP quarterback can never be fully ruled out in tournaments, but it will clearly be an uphill battle for Russ to lead the slate in scoring.

Mercurial Steelers wideout George Pickens ($12,500) is the last player projected for double-digit points. However, if Wilson has shown muted upside, it isn't shocking that his top wideout hasn't produced many spike weeks, either, and Pickens is also fresh off scoring just 0.5 points in Week 18. Still, Pickens leads the team in target share (24.9%), air yards share (45.3%), red zone target share (31.0%), and end zone target share (44.4%) over eight games with Russ.

When making a lineup with a Steelers upset or close loss in mind, Pickens makes some sense as a contrarian MVP play -- if you're willing accept a potential lineup-crushing floor. But overall, considering the lopsided nature of this spread and game outlook, it's hard to fully trust any Pittsburgh MVP.

With that in mind, another avenue to pursue when avoiding the Jackson/Henry chalk is Rashod Bateman ($10,000). Ravens No. 1 wideout Zay Flowers has been ruled out, which means Bateman should be the featured wide receiver in Baltimore's passing attack this weekend.

Flowers went down early in Week 18, and the result was Bateman catching 5-of-8 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. Bateman ended that contest with a 26.7% target share and 38.4% air yards share with a whopping 6 downfield targets (10+ air yards). We've seen Flowers come up with some big performances despite the inconsistencies of an offense that leans on the run, so a spike week from Bateman shouldn't be ruled out.

Flex Targets

Najee Harris ($12,000) and Jaylen Warren ($9,500) -- Harris and Warren will split backfield snaps, and it's always difficult to predict just how that will shake out from game to game. Warren seemed to be trending upward in recent weeks then took a significant step back in Week 18 with just 6 carries and 1 target compared to Harris getting 12 carries and 5 targets. Jaylen is still the one to prioritize as Pittsburgh's preferred pass-catching back in an expected negative game script, especially with his salary being much lower. Our model also projects Warren for more points between the two.

Mark Andrews ($11,000) -- Andrews equaled Rashod Bateman in target share last week (26.7%) and even posted a higher air yards share (44.1%). Flowers' absence again should afford Andrews some more looks, and the fact he saw five downfield targets last week is particularly encouraging. Further, going back to Week 6, Andrews owns a 34.1% red zone target share and 29.6% end zone target share, and he's scored a touchdown in six straight games. There's a case for including him in your MVP mix with the hopes of a multi-score performance.

Chris Boswell ($9,500) and Justin Tucker ($9,000) -- As of Thursday, Boswell hadn't practiced yet this week, but it's due to illness, so he ought to be fine by Saturday. While he's been one of fantasy's very best kickers (11.2 FanDuel points per game), his outlook isn't great unless the Steelers exceed expectations as heavy underdogs. Tucker is also tough to get behind because of his surprising kicking struggles (73.3% FG percentage), and this efficient Ravens offense tends to limit his field goal opportunities anyway.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST ($9,000) -- If the Ravens blow the doors off the Steelers, there's a scenario where their improving defense sneaks onto the perfect lineup. A negative game script could force Russell Wilson into turnovers, and he has the league's sixth-worst sack rate (8.9%).

Isaiah Likely ($8,500) -- Likely has a better chance of coming through as a value play with Flowers out, though his target projection remains low (3.6) as someone whose usage has fluctuated up and down all season. His 16.7% target share last week was third on Baltimore behind Bateman and Andrews.

Justice Hill ($8,000) -- Hill is expected to be active after missing time with a concussion. In 14 full games, he's averaged a 44.4% snap rate with 3.2 carries and 3.6 targets per game. As the Ravens' pass-catching back, he's more likely to earn opportunities in negative game scripts -- which we're unlikely to see on Saturday -- but all four games where he's scored a touchdown came in victories, so don't necessarily rule him out.

Pat Freiermuth ($8,000) -- Since George Pickens came back from a two-game absence, Freiermuth has actually led the Steelers with a 29.7% target share over the past two weeks, and he most recently posted a season-high 18.5 FanDuel points. He projects for the game's third-most targets (5.5), and he could well exceed that if his recent usage continues.

Calvin Austin III ($7,500) -- It's hard to feel confident about any other Pittsburgh wide receiver when Pickens is active, but Austin has the team's second-best route rate (71.8%) over the past two games.

Tylan Wallace ($6,000) -- Baltimore's Wallace logged the second-highest route rate (63.9%) among wideouts with Flowers getting hurt in Week 18. It led to just one target, but if he's effectively being utilized as a No. 2 WR this weekend, he's in play as a way to load up on your other four slots with the hopes he lucks his way into a TD.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.