After being treated to some intriguing Thursday Night Football matchups in recent weeks, we might be getting a more "traditional" TNF slog in Week 12. Tonight's Pittsburgh Steelers-Cleveland Browns matchup comes in with the slate's lowest total (36.5), and the weather forecast is showing cold temperatures, windy conditions, and potential rain.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Steelers at Browns NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Quarterbacks Russell Wilson ($15,500) and Jameis Winston ($15,000) lead the way in our NFL DFS projections, but the combination of temperatures in the 30s and windy conditions (20+ mph gusts) could curtail passing production. Add in possible precipitation, and this could be one of run-heavy, low-scoring grinds where touchdowns are at a premium.

With all that being said, the effect of bad weather can sometimes be overblown, so it will be worth checking the conditions closer to game time to decide whether you think the offenses might be able to function more normally than initially expected. If you believe that's the case, Russ and Jameis certainly remain two of the top MVP plays.

Wilson is averaging just 30.1 pass attempts per game in an offense that ranks 29th in pass rate over expectation, which tends to limit his fantasy upside, but a pair of multi-touchdown games has helped him to 19+ FanDuel points in two of four starts. While he doesn't flash in most efficiency metrics, he's averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and might be able to do just enough against numberFire's 19th-ranked adjusted pass defense.

On the other hand, Winston is a high-volume passer, logging 41, 46, and 46 attempts across his three starts. We're all pretty familiar with the full Jameis experience at this point as he's scored 26.6, 13.1, and 29.6 FanDuel points, racking up 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in the spike weeks while mixing in a three-pick game in between. His outlook would take a sizable hit if the weather forces Cleveland to dial back his attempts, and he's up against the ninth-best adjusted pass defense, as well.

Given the expected conditions, Najee Harris ($12,000) is arguably the top MVP choice. In four games with Wilson under center, Harris has averaged 19.8 carries, 2.5 targets, and 94.8 scrimmage yards. Even with Jaylen Warren healthy and splitting the snaps in this backfield, Najee is still getting most of the carries and targets in the red zone with a 40.8% RZ opportunity share. While opposing RBs have generated the seventh-fewest FanDuel points per game against the Browns, numberFire ranks Cleveland just 25th in adjusted rush D, and the game environment and script favor a high-volume night for Harris.

George Pickens ($13,500) has averaged 3.8 downfield targets (10+ air yards) per game with Wilson, so his upside will be capped if winds eliminate the deep ball. Still, on a slate with limited MVP options, he's firmly on the table as Pittsburgh's lone reliable pass catcher. In Russ' starts, Pickens has posted a 29.7% target share, 47.6% air yards share, and 36.8% red zone target share.

Beyond the previous four mentioned, Nick Chubb ($11,500) is the only other player projected for double-digit points, but he hasn't actually reached double digits in any of his four games. He's been extremely game-script dependent, most recently being held to just a 28.6% snap rate in last week's loss, though he did see a season-high 62.1% snap rate and 16 carries in a Week 8 win. Chubb's logged 90.9% of the red zone carries when he plays, so there's theoretically a path to a multi-score performance if everything breaks right. Even so, he's a dicey MVP at best, particularly against Pittsburgh's third-best adjusted rush defense.

Finally, the possibility of an ugly game puts the Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST ($9,500) on the MVP radar. As noted earlier, Winston threw three interceptions in his second start, and he was also sacked six times. That outing came against a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense, and the Steelers could certainly replicate that performance in unfavorable conditions. With strong marks against both the pass and run, numberFire ranks Pittsburgh as the third-best overall defense this year.

Flex Targets

David Njoku ($12,500) -- Njoku has recorded a 17.4% target share with Jameis Winston under center, which has led to 7, 7, and 9 targets due to high passing volume. He could get peppered with short targets due to the weather, making him an appealing flex play.

Jerry Jeudy ($11,000), Cedric Tillman ($10,500), and Elijah Moore ($9,000) -- Cleveland's top three wideouts have eerily similar market shares with Winston under center. All three have target shares around 21-23% and air yards shares in the 29-30% range. They all average 5.0 or more downfield targets per game, as well, so poor weather would really put a damper on their outlooks. While both Jeudy and Tillman have blown up for big games, this might not be the matchup or environment to expect 20+ FanDuel points. In terms of targets, our projections rank them Jeudy (6.4), Tillman (6.1), and then Moore (5.4).

Chris Boswell ($10,000) and Dustin Hopkins ($8,500) -- A windy night naturally downgrades the kickers, though it's worth noting that Boswell has been fantasy's top kicker in 2024 and has scored 14 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. Hopkins owns one of the league's worst field goal percentages (70.0%), so he might be one to largely avoid despite the lower salary.

Mike Williams ($9,500) -- Williams ran 36.6% of the routes in his second game for the Steelers but didn't see any targets. Maybe he sees a bump in work, but the short week won't help. He's hard to justify rostering unless you're making a ton of lineups.

Jaylen Warren ($9,000) -- At this salary, Warren looks like one of the top value plays. He's averaged 11.0 carries and 3.0 targets with a 42.2% snap rate in Russell Wilson's games, and he's off the injury report after popping up with a back issue last week. While he still has zero touchdowns this year and cedes most of the red zone work to Najee Harris, a 20.4% RZ opportunity share isn't nothing.

Jerome Ford ($8,000) -- Ford has out-snapped Nick Chubb in their two games together (50.7% to 32.2%), but it's fair to assume that was due to negative game scripts. Of course, we could certainly see the Browns fall behind as home underdogs. The trouble is Ford still averaged just 3.5 rushes and 3.5 targets in those games with zero red zone opportunities.

Pat Freiermuth ($8,000) -- Freiermuth has a disappointing 9.0% target share in Wilson's starts and isn't even getting a ton of red zone targets (15.8%).

Calvin Austin III ($7,500) -- In Russ' starts, Austin is second behind Pickens in target share, but 14.4% isn't exactly a flashy mark. His route rate dipped to just 51.2% in Week 11, which is a concern, as well. He did score 18.9 FanDuel points in Week 8, but he's realistically more of a dart throw.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.