Raiders at Chiefs Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Black Friday

We have the second annual Black Friday game this week, and this edition isn't expected to be a close one between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs with KC favored by 12.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Raiders at Chiefs NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Patrick Mahomes ($16,000) and the Chiefs barely escaped with a win against a feisty Carolina Panthers team last week, but the upset bid did help Mahomes reach his best fantasy score of 2024 with 28.8 FanDuel points. Kansas City is up to second in pass rate over expectation, and Mahomes has now thrown for three touchdowns in three of his last four games. He should be able to carve up a Raiders team that's 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense.

The only downside in slotting Mahomes at MVP is that he'll presumably be quite chalky on a slate lacking a ton of high-upside options. He leads the slate in our NFL DFS projections by a wide margin.

Aidan O'Connell ($5,000) will reportedly start on Friday, and it's obvious his salary doesn't reflect that. He has the second-best projection in our model, technically putting him on the MVP radar, but more than anything, he's practically a free square at minimum salary.

While it's obviously hard to see O'Connell outperforming Mahomes, KC is just 18th in adjusted pass defense, and he did score 17+ FanDuel points in three of his final four games as a starter last season. In his lone full game in 2024, O'Connell reached 12.1 points in a tough matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

After seeing elite usage from Weeks 4-10, Travis Kelce ($11,500) has just an 18.2% target share over the last two games, which coincides with JuJu Smith-Schuster returning to the lineup. While that's a slight concern, Kelce is still leading the team in route rate (76.8%) over this sample and remains Mahomes' No. 1 option. A big game could be upcoming against a Las Vegas team that's coughed up the third-most FanDuel points per game to TEs.

It's rare to see one tight end as a viable MVP -- let alone two -- but Brock Bowers ($13,000) has a 27.3% target share and 37.5% end zone target share across four games with Jakobi Meyers ($10,500) back in action. A couple of weeks ago, Bowers blew up for 27.8 points, catching 13-of-16 targets for 126 yards and a TD. His upside can't be overlooked despite being a heavy underdog, and the Chiefs have actually given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.

And speaking of Meyers, he's soaked up a 27.3% target share and 37.3% air yards share since coming back, averaging 3.5 downfield targets (10+ air yards) per game. While the swap at quarterback adds some uncertainty to how targets will be doled out, we should still be confident in Bowers and Meyers being O'Connell's primary options. Meyers has exceeded 100 receiving yards in two of the last three games.

Flex Targets

Isiah Pacheco ($14,500) and Kareem Hunt ($14,000) -- Pacheco practiced in full on Tuesday and is trending toward playing. While that would normally make him an easy MVP candidate on a massive home favorite, the problem is that offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has hinted at a committee with Hunt going forward. Pacheco averaged 25.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) in his two healthy games, so it isn't crazy to consider rolling the dice at MVP in case he takes back his job. But for the most part, these two look more suitable as flex plays who could be somewhat interchangeable given all the uncertainty.

DeAndre Hopkins ($11,000) -- Although JuJu Smith-Schuster has seen just three targets in two games back, his return has dropped DeAndre Hopkins' snap rate to 42.5% over that span. Hopkins is still third in target share (15.2%), but he feels like a touchdown-or-bust play at this point and projects for a modest 5.4 targets. Despite the high cap hit for his role, the good news is he's still easy to roster due to Aidan O'Connell's mispriced salary.

Xavier Worthy ($10,000) -- Over the last two weeks, Worthy is second on KC in target share (16.7%), first in air yards share (30.6%), and second in route rate (70.7%). If you're choosing between Worthy and Hopkins, the former has exhibited the more encouraging usage lately.

Ameer Abdullah ($9,500) -- Adbullah could be the Raiders featured back again if both Alexander Mattison ($9,500) and Zamir White ($7,500) remain out. He logged 8 rushes and 6 targets (20 adjusted opportunities) with an 89.0% snap rate in last week's negative game script, which we'll happily take again. Mattison was limited in practice on Tuesday, so he could return, potentially giving us a far less appealing committee.

Kansas City Chiefs D/ST ($9,000) -- The Chiefs' defense projects well in our model against a team that's 31st in adjusted offense. Las Vegas' switch at QB is unlikely to give this struggling unit much of a boost, and game script should lend itself to sacks and turnovers.

Spencer Shrader ($9,000) and Daniel Carlson ($8,000) -- Kansas City has one of the week's highest implied team totals (27.5), so whoever's kicking for them could have a busy day. Shrader is dealing with a hamstring issue, so Matthew Wright could get added to the player pool if he's expected to start. Las Vegas' Carlson is a riskier play considering the likelihood the Chiefs run away with this one.

Tre Tucker ($8,500) -- Tucker has an 87.9% route rate and 14.7% target share since Meyers' return. He opened the week with a limited practice but seems likely to be active after playing 89.0% of the snaps last week.

Noah Gray ($8,500) -- Of the value KC pass catchers, Gray is the only one to crack a double-digit target share (13.6%) with JuJu playing. He's also seen half the end zone targets across those two games, helping him rack up four touchdowns. That's clearly unsustainable, but his usage near the goal line is promising at least.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.