Premier League Betting Picks for Thursday 2/1/24: Can Wolves Take Down Manchester United?
The EPL’s busy week continues with another day of Premier League action!
Today, we will be looking at a portion of Matchweek 22 – Thursday. Thursday's slate features two matches – Manchester United at Wolves and Bournemouth at West Ham.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Thursday’s slate?
EPL Betting: Matchweek 22
Manchester United at Wolves (3:15 p.m. ET Thursday)
Wolves Moneyline (+165)
In October and November, there were signs of a potential turnaround for United. They took advantage of a weak schedule and earned five wins from six matches with their lone loss coming against Manchester City. Like every other “turnaround” for United in recent seasons, it ended up being a mirage.
In their eight matches since, United have two wins, two draws, and four losses by a combined score of 8-13. The combined scoreline of those matches on expected goals – per FBref – looks a bit better, 10.2-12.5, only because of United’s 4.1 xG performance against Chelsea -- a performance they were unable to take any semblance of positive momentum from and failed to score in their next three fixtures.
United have problems on both ends of the pitch, but what stands out the most from their performances since the start of December is their inability to generate chances. Including the Chelsea game, they are averaging just 1.27 xG/90 over their last eight matches. Remove the Chelsea game, and that average plummets to 0.87 xG/90, which would rank last in the EPL.
Their victory over Chelsea was the only game during that stretch when United generated more than 1.1 xG; they generated 0.8 or fewer xG four times. Three of those four matches were road fixtures, and the fourth was a 2-0 loss to West Ham in which they generated 1.0 xG. The road struggles extend beyond the past two months; United rank 16th in xG on the road this season (10.9). United’s results are inconsistent, but their goal scoring woes are everpresent.
Wolves have had an up-and-down season as well, but they enter this fixture on a four-match unbeaten run with just one loss in their last seven fixtures. Their current unbeaten run is more impressive considering their opponents -- Chelsea, Brentford, Everton, and Brighton -- all rank inside the top 10 in xGD/90. Their combined scoreline in those games was 9-2 from an xG scoreline of 6.7-5.6.
After early losses to Brighton and Liverpool in Matchweeks 2 and 5, Wolves have been excellent at home this season. They are undefeated in their eight home fixtures since with five wins and three draws. That stretch includes wins over Manchester City, Tottenham, and Chelsea as well as draws against Aston Villa and Newcastle. They have scored in every home match this season with at least two goals in half of them. Wolves have faced arguably the most difficult home schedule this season and haven't lost since September.
When these two sides met at Old Trafford back in Matchweek 1, United escaped with a 1-0 victory in a match that finished 2.2-2.2 on xG. Wolves outshot United 23-15 and placed three times as many shots on target (6-2).
United don’t look much better now than they did back then. With Wolves at home this time, I like them to take all three points.
Bournemouth at West Ham (2:30 p.m. ET Thursday)
Over 2.5 Goals (-164)
West Ham is having an interesting season. They sit in sixth on the table, five points behind Tottenham in fifth, despite an xGD/90 (-0.37) that ranks 16th. They are tied for 11th in xG/90 (14.2) -- even with Manchester United -- but have overperformed those metrics with 1.62 goals/90, which ranks ninth.
The larger problem for West Ham is their defense. They are allowing the third-most xG/90 (1.80) in the league. They have overperformed that, as well, and are allowing just 1.48 goals/90, 11th-most. Their underlying metrics have been worse at home than on the road. Their xG/90 at home (-0.38) ranks 18th. All told, they have an actual goal difference of +3 from an xG difference of –7.8.
The Hammers enter this fixture with just 1 loss in their last 10 EPL fixtures, a stretch that includes wins over Arsenal, Manchester United, and Tottenham. It also includes a draw with Sheffield United and a 5-0 loss to Fulham. At some point, one would expect West Ham’s poor underlying metrics to catch up to them, but it simply hasn’t happened yet.
Bournemouth enter this fixture with losses in their last two EPL fixtures: at Tottenham and vs. Liverpool. The combined scoreline of those games was 1-7, but on xG, it was 3.1-3.8. Before those losses, the Cherries had taken seven wins from their last nine completed matches with their only loss coming at Manchester City.
Overall, Bournemouth has been a mid-table side this season. They sit in 12th on the table, their xGD/90 (-0.22) ranks 12th, and they rank 12th in goals/90 (1.36) and 13th in xG/90 (1.38). Like West Ham, their issue has been their defense, but they have underperformed instead of overperformed. They have allowed the third-most goals/90 (1.84) despite allowing the ninth-most xG/90 (1.60). With one fewer game played, Bournemouth has allowed 4.8 fewer xG than West Ham and 7 more actual goals. The result is a 10-point difference on the league table.
Over their last five away fixtures, Bournemouth is averaging 2.4 goals per match. West Ham have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches but have allowed 1.84 xG per match during that period. The current scoring form of both sides, combined with their shared defensive struggles has me looking at the over in their clash on Thursday.
Player Props
Matheus Cunha to Score or Assist (+125): United has allowed two goals in each of their last four EPL fixtures. Cunha enters this fixture in fine form with a goal, two assists, nine shots, two shots on target, and five chances created in his last three matches combined.
Dominic Solanke to Score (+175): Solanke failed to score in his two most recent matches against Tottenham and Liverpool but did record 10 shots with 2 on target. Before those fixtures, he had had a three-match stretch with five goals. He tops the EPL in total shots (66), is 10th in shots/90 (3.34), is tied for 3rd in goals (12) while solo 3rd in xG (11.1). West Ham has allowed 1.84 xG per game over their last five fixtures.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.