NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 12/31/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.
Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.
NHL DFS Picks
Goalie to Target
Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers ($7,200)
When teams put pucks on net but can't convert, we should target them in DFS with goalies. That's exactly why Carter Hart ($7.200) is the cream of today's crop despite easier matchups elsewhere.
Teams can be "unlucky" for a bit, but the Calgary Flames now have struggled to convert chances since the start of the 2022-23 season. Calgary has the league's seventh-best Corsi per 60 minutes (62.9) but once again sit in the league's bottom 10 for goals per 60 minutes (2.90).
It helps that Hart has played extremely well lately behind John Tortorella's defense. He's posted 5.07 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) and a .929 save rate in the month of December.
Hart is projected for 20.6 FanDuel points (FDP) on Sunday, which is the most per dollar of salary in numberFire's projections. No one else on the slate has his combination of forgiving salary, quality form, and a matchup with shot upside.
Stacks
Colorado Avalanche
The San Jose Sharks can't be real. They just can't be.
One of the worst teams we've ever seen in the NHL is shockingly trending in a downward direction as the season advances. San Jose has lost their last seven games, and they've ceded at least four goals in each of their last six games. Hockey is random, but they've gone above and beyond to ensure futility for this roster.
That means the Colorado Avalanche -- one of the best scoring offenses in the league -- have a tremendously high floor as a stack this evening. Colorado posted a 6-2 win amidst the aforementioned streak, and the Sharks haven't shown any sort of improvement to expect worse tonight.
Colorado's fully correlated top stack helps their argument, too. If they're lighting lamps, there's a high chance that Nathan MacKinnon ($10,400), Mikko Rantanen ($9,700), Cale Makar ($9,000), and Valeri Nichushkin ($8,600) are involved.
Making all four work in a stack is nearly impossible, but that's a good thing to prohibit extreme popularity with decent options on the slate elsewhere. I couldn't imagine starting somewhere else in cash games.
Ottawa Senators
There's no hiding the highest-projected scoring environment on the slate. The Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators are 61.8% likely to amass over seven combined goals, per the NHL odds at FanDuel. I'm open to skaters on both sides, but the home team is favored for good reason.
Buffalo's primary issues come defensively. They're allowing 3.25 expected goals per 60 minutes (ninth-most in the NHL), and the goaltending hasn't picked up the slack by any means. Devon Levi (-2.07 GSAx this season) will get the nod on the back-to-back and has badly struggled this season.
Ottawa's stacking options are fairly normal by league standards. From the first line, Brady Tkachuk ($8,800) and Josh Norris ($6,600) are joined by second-liners Tim Stutzle ($7,900) and Drake Batherson ($7,400) on the power play. Jake Sanderson ($6,200) is the point man for the group on defense.
This is no value stack, which actually aids its cause in tournaments. Most will trip over all other teams to get to the Avs, but committing salary to this stack is an easy way to be different and maintain upside.
Value Skaters
William Eklund, W, San Jose Sharks ($4,200)
Despite liking the Avs' offense, I think it's a fairly sizable mistake to lunge toward the high-salaried Alexandar Georgiev in goal tonight.
At that salary, you want it all, and Georgiev just hasn't played particularly well this season. Even in an improved month of December, Georgiev's 0.68 GSAx are totally pedestrian. It's made Colorado -- a strong defense overall at 3.01 expected goals allowed per 60 -- a fairly neutral matchup.
Knowing they'll be playing catch-up, the Sharks are a pretty attractive value stack with that the case. San Jose's best pieces -- like William Eklund ($4,200) -- can be had for next to nothing in terms of salary.
Ekland occupies a role on San Jose's top line in all ice conditions with an 18:55 TOI average this month, and it's not been all empty. He's posted a modest 8 points in 12 December games when considering the Sharks' overall struggles.
Part of an Avalanche stack working is San Jose keeping the game competitive enough to keep Colorado's top skaters on the ice. That correlative principle only adds to the appeal of punt-level Sharks on the other side.
Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks ($4,100)
The Edmonton Oilers are coming off an emotional, overtime win over the Los Angeles Kings entering this back-to-back with the Anaheim Ducks. Watch out for an upset in Orange County.
Anaheim last played Friday, so they've got the rest edge when also facing the Oilers' backup goaltender. Calvin Pickard hasn't been disastrous, posting -0.94 GSAx this month, but he's also not been a true difference-maker to avoid.
However, there's a reason the Ducks aren't in the stacking section. Their correlation is an absolute trainwreck among forwards and defenseman. The only individual player who can say he plays on the top even-strength and power-play unit is Trevor Zegras ($4,100).
That works for me. Zegras has two points in four games since returning from injury, and he's extremely talented for this salary after posting 0.80 points per game a year ago for the Ducks.
He's an elite one-off option to help fit in Avs -- or Sens. numberFire has Zegras projected for a healthy 9.9 FDP on Sunday.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.