NHL Betting Picks for Thursday 11/30/23: Predators Look to Defeat Former Coach
A giant, 14-game slate awaits us on Thursday, and we should be able to find some bets we like tonight.
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.
NHL Best Bets
Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames
Stars ML (-125)
The Dallas Stars travel to Canada to face the Calgary Flames. This is the third meeting of the season with each team having one road victory.
Dallas was expected to be one of the best teams heading into this season, and they are fifth in the NHL in points percentage. They upgraded their forward depth in the summer and already had a great defensive team.
The underlying numbers for the Stars are strong. They have the fourth-best expected goal (xG) percentage in the NHL at five-on-five. With Jake Oettinger, they have one of the best goalies in the league; he ranks 10th in goals saved above expected (GSAx) in the NHL over the last three seasons.
Calgary continues to be fairly unimpressive so far this season. They have a .477 points percentage and a -8 goal differential. They are supposed to be a good five-on-five team, but their 50.56 xG% is only 17th in the league.
Dallas is a better team than Calgary and should be able to win on the road. Our model at numberFire likes Dallas in this game, as well. The way the season has played out so far backs that up.
Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators
Predators ML (-115)
This game probably won't grab the most headlines of the 14 on Thursday, but it has a lot of interesting elements.
The Minnesota Wild have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NHL. They were projected to be the third-best team in the Central Division. Instead, they are the third-worst team in the league. They fired head coach Dean Evason on Monday after losing seven games in a row.
They replaced Evason with John Hynes, who was the coach of the Nashville Predators until last season. Hynes has four playoff appearances in his coaching career -- all first round losses -- and a .525 career points percentage. He doesn't seem like someone who will guarantee things will get better.
Minnesota's problems go beyond coaching. They are 18th in xG% at five-on-five and, more importantly, are the fourth-worst club in team save percentage.
Meanwhile, Nashville has quietly been one of the hottest teams in the NHL. They've won six games in a row and are in a wild card spot in the West. They are ninth in the league xG% at five-on-five.
A surprising aspect of Nashville's success has been the play of Juuse Saros. He has one of the best track records for goalie over the past three seasons but sits at -1.09 GSAx this season. If we expect him to regress back towards his normal level of play, that would make the Predators even stronger.
Given what's going on with these two teams, I definitely have no problem laying this price for the Predators at home.
Colorado Avalanche at Arizona Coyotes
Under 6.5 (-120)
The Colorado Avalanche go on the road to play the Arizona Coyotes, and this game may not have as many goals as expected.
Colorado is one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. They've allowed the fifth-fewest xG per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It's unlikely that Arizona will be the team to have success at five-on-five against them; they are only 20th in xG rate.
An element of this under is how well Connor Ingram has played so far this season for the Coyotes in goal. He's saved 10.5 goals above expected, the third-most in the league. The Avalanche could find it difficult to completely rack up the goals in this game.
Arizona averages the second-fewest shots on goal per game in the league. Their offense just isn't one that will scare anyone -- even if they have a few nice forwards.
Being -188 favorites, it wouldn't be surprising if the Avalanche overwhelm the Coyotes in this game. Even a 5-1 or 4-2 game would cash the under, so that's an important script to note.
There are many scenarios with how this game will play out, but the ones where both teams score a lot of goals is fairly unlikely, so I'll play the under in this matchup.
Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.