NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 11/25/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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St. Louis Blues vs. New York Rangers
Blues Moneyline +184
The New York Rangers return home after a somewhat unsuccessful road trip in which they went 2-2-0. In addition to cross-continent travels, the Rangers are dealing with deteriorating metrics that put them at a disadvantage against a resurgent St. Louis Blues squad.
Moneyline
Even before embarking on their Western Conference road swing, the Rangers’ metrics were beginning to suffer. New York has been outplayed in four of its past seven, dropping their expected goals-for rating to a middling 51.6%. Eroding defensive metrics have been the primary factor in their downturn, with the Rangers giving up 10 or more high-danger chances in four of those seven contests.
Naturally, that correlates with a decreasing save percentage. Rangers’ goalies have combined for a .915% save percentage over that sample, marginally below their season-long average of .919. However, ongoing correction is anticipated, with their PDO still hovering at 1.031.
Impenetrable defensive structure has become the hallmark of the Blues’ systems, and that strength has been on full display over their recent schedule. St. Louis has held four of its past five opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances, yielding just 7.2 opportunities per game. More impressively, the Blues have out-chanced their opponents in all but one of those contests, tilting the expected goals-for ratings in their favor. They’ve outplayed their opponents in three of five, a stretch that only includes two wins.
St. Louis remains a prime progression candidate as outcomes don’t reflect their recent uptick in productivity. They can wield those advantages over a road-weary Rangers team on Monday night.
Dallas Stars vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Stars Moneyline +110
A modest two-game losing streak has dampened the Carolina Hurricanes’ outlook. Still an analytics juggernaut, the Canes have looked flat-footed over their past few outings. A surging Dallas Stars team will be ready to take advantage as the Stars look to maintain their elite form in this inter-conference affair.
Moneyline
Dallas has seen a boon in its underlying metrics recently. Over their past five games, the Stars have dominated their opponents to the tune of a 57.2% expected goals-for rating. Those efforts have dragged their season-long rating up to 53.0%, the sixth-best mark in the NHL.
As usual, the Stars are maximizing their defensive efforts, holding all five opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances and four of five teams to 21 or fewer scoring chances. Altogether, Dallas allows 19.6 scoring and 7.8 high-danger chances across that sample.
Carolina is trending in the opposite direction. Despite having a league-best 59.1% expected goals-for rating, the Hurricanes have been outplayed in three of their previous five. Their offensive well has seemingly run dry, with the Canes being held to one or fewer goals at five-on-five in three of their past six contests. However, with their PDO still hovering above average, ongoing regression seems imminent.
Analytically, there aren’t many teams that can compete with the Hurricanes, but the Stars are one of the teams that cab. Amid one of Dallas' best stretches of the season, we see an edge in backing the visitors at underdog odds.
Calgary Flames vs. Ottawa Senators
Under 5.5 +102
In today’s modern game, it’s not too often that we see a total hovering at 5.5. But that’s the case in Monday’s tilt between the Calgary Flames and Ottawa Senators. Making things more enticing are the plus-money odds on the under. Given both teams' penchant for stout defensive play, there’s a decided advantage in backing this one to stay beneath the total.
Total Goals
Calgary and Ottawa rank as two of the best defensive teams in the league. Undoubtedly, the Senators are the more surprising of these two teams, but their track record speaks volumes about their renewed commitment to their defensive systems.
Ottawa has held six of its previous seven opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances. Five of those teams have been limited to six or fewer, with a rolling average of 5.3 quality chances per game. So far this season, only two teams allow fewer opportunities per game.
Calgary’s success is built on the same defensive gusto. Since October 26, only two teams have managed more than nine high-danger chances against the Flames. That translates to just 7.3 high-danger chances per game across the 14-game sample, an improvement over their season-long average of 8.1.
Moreover, we’re not anticipating an offensive surge from a Senators team that has eclipsed nine quality opportunities just once over their last eight games.
All signs point toward this one staying beneath 5.5 goals.
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