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NFL Week 3 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 3's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Dolphins at Bills Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -11.8
Total Prediction: 51.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Raiders at Commanders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Commanders -6.2
Total Prediction: 49.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Would not bet based on these numbers right now because I'm projecting Jayden Daniels as in.
Falcons at Panthers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Falcons -2.1
Total Prediction: 44.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Showing value in the Carolina Panthers even after downgrading them for offensive-line injuries. There's a chance this number continues to shift toward the Atlanta Falcons, though, so I'm not in a rush to bet it.
Packers at Browns Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -8.5
Total Prediction: 45.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Steelers at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -0.8
Total Prediction: 42.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Rams at Eagles Prediction
Spread Prediction: Eagles -4.1
Total Prediction: 47.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Question marks along the Los Angeles Rams' offensive line and to Dallas Goedert are preventing me from betting the over here.
Colts at Titans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Colts -2.0
Total Prediction: 39.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans' defense has been good enough where I'm willing to act on the value I have on the under. This will also be the Indianapolis Colts' first outdoor and road game of the year.
Jets at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bucs -7.6
Total Prediction: 48.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Even with Tyrod Taylor likely starting for the New York Jets, I'm willing to bet this over. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense is chugging, and the Jets' defense hasn't impressed thus far.
Bengals at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Vikings -4.0
Total Prediction: 42.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I don't wanna bet on Carson Wentz, so I'm hoping the market moves toward the Minnesota Vikings to take away the bit of value I'm seeing on them.
Texans at Jaguars Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -1.7
Total Prediction: 42.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Although the Houston Texans move outdoors, they get their easiest defensive matchup yet. I'm willing to bet on them to get their first win of the season, taking their moneyline at +102.
Saints at Seahawks Prediction
Spread Prediction: Seahawks -4.4
Total Prediction: 43.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The New Orleans Saints' offense has been surprisingly competent so far, so while I think my model is too high on them, I'm willing to take +7 at even money in what could be a low-scoring game.
Broncos at Chargers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chargers -2.3
Total Prediction: 44.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Cardinals at 49ers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cardinals -0.2
Total Prediction: 44.5
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: This is assuming that Mac Jones starts for the San Francisco 49ers for the second straight week.
Cowboys at Bears Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -0.7
Total Prediction: 43.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Offensive efficiency is the main catalyst of my totals model, and while neither team has been hideous, they're not standout enough to justify a total this high, no matter what the defenses have looked like. There's also projected 10 mph winds in Chicago, further driving down my total and putting me on the under at 50.5
Chiefs at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -5.4
Total Prediction: 47.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Lions at Ravens Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -3.9
Total Prediction: 54.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
