NFL Playoff Picture: Clinching Scenarios and Key Games Entering Week 14

The NFL Playoffs are drawing near, and the current NFL playoff picture really is taking shape, but there are plenty of regular season games standing in the way of locking in the postseason bracket.

Although only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have clinched playoff berths through Week 13's action, according to numberFire's NFL Power Rankings, 10 teams have at least a 94.7% chance to reach the playoffs. Further, three more have at least a 66.8% chance to do so, and then things drop off.

So, while nothing is yet set in stone, here's a current snapshot of the playoff picture -- and some key scenarios to look out for in Week 14.

NFL Playoff Picture

AFC Playoff Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Houston Texans
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Baltimore Ravens
7. Denver Broncos

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Washington Commanders

NFL Playoff Clinching Scenarios to Note

Chiefs Can Clinch the AFC West

The Chiefs and Chargers square off on Sunday Night Football in Week 14. With a win, the Chiefs will move to 12-1 on the season and clinch their ninth consecutive AFC West crown.

Lions Can Clinch Playoff Berth

Despite an 11-1 record, the Lions have not technically clinched a playoff berth. They face the Packers (9-3) on Thursday Night Football in Week 14.

With a win or tie, the Lions will clinch a playoff spot. There are other paths to a berth this week for Detroit even with a loss -- specifically with losses from the Falcons or Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here are the Lions' scenarios this week.

1. DET win or tie
2. ATL loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
3. ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
4. ATL loss or tie + LAR loss or tie + PHI win
5. ATL loss or tie + SEA loss + PHI win
6. ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + PHI win + DET clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over PHI
7. TB loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
8. TB loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
9. TB loss or tie + LAR loss or tie + PHI win
10. TB loss or tie + SEA loss + PHI win

Vikings Can Clinch Playoff Berth

The Vikings (10-2) are the current 5 seed in the NFC and will lock up a postseason spot with a win this week and some help.

Here are the Vikings' scenarios this week.

1. MIN win + SEA-ARI tie
2. MIN win + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
3. MIN tie + TB loss + ARI loss + LAR loss
4. MIN tie + TB loss + ARI tie + LAR loss + PHI win or tie

Eagles Can Clinch Playoff Berth

Similar to the Vikings, the 10-2 Eagles can clinch a playoff spot with a win and some help with losses or ties from other teams in the NFC.

Here are the Eagles' scenarios this week.

1. PHI win + ATL loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
2. PHI win + ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
3. PHI win + ATL loss or tie + ARI loss + DET win or tie
4. PHI win + TB loss or tie + SEA-ARI tie
5. PHI win + TB loss or tie + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
6. PHI win + TB loss or tie + ARI loss + DET win or tie
7. PHI tie + ATL loss + SEA-ARI tie
8. PHI tie + ATL loss + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie
9. PHI tie + TB loss + SEA-ARI tie
10. PHI tie + TB loss + ARI loss + LAR loss or tie

NFL Playoff Elimination Scenarios to Note

The Carolina Panthers are at risk of elimination with a loss (and a Falcons win).

The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans would be eliminated with losses.

Notable NFL Playoff Implications

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Mathematically speaking, this week's matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks will prove vital for the postseason picture, specifically toward the race for the NFC West crown.

According to NextGenStats, Seattle's playoff odds jump from 48% to 76% with a win -- but fall to 26% with a loss, a 50-point discrepancy between a win or loss.

Arizona sees a similar swing: from 40% to 63% with a win but down to 12% with a loss.

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

The only team of these four not relevant in the playoff conversation is the Las Vegas Raiders, who are eliminated from the playoffs.

We discussed the Vikings' situation above, and their odds to reach the postseason don't change much even with a loss.

No, this is about the NFC South teams: the Falcons (the current 4 seed) and the Buccaneers (the 8 seed).

Atlanta has already swept the regular season series over the Buccaneers, yet Tampa Bay remains lively in the playoff push.

Tampa Bay's playoff odds -- per NGS -- are 57% now. With a win, they go up to 67% and fall to 36% with a loss.

The Falcons' odds rocket to 75% with a win (from 58%) but are still 48% with a loss.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

This AFC East matchup looks crucial for playoff implications -- but not because of the divisional crown, which the Bills have already secured.

Rather, the 5-7 Miami Dolphins are on the outside looking in for the playoff race, and via NextGenStats, their playoff odds would fall to just 2% with a loss to the Jets this week.

NGS currently has Miami with only 10% playoff odds as it is, and a win bumps them up to just 12%. That's how razor thin Miami's margin for error is in Week 14 and beyond.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

The 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals are still clinging to life (numberFire gives them a 0.7% playoff chance; NGS has them at 2%) ahead of their Week 14 Monday Night Football matchup with the Dallas Cowboys.

The Bengals are likely better than their 4-8 record (their point differential is just -5, and they are 1-7 in one-score games).

They could make a run.

They'll pretty much need it to start this week.

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