NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 5

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 5

Austin Swaim

Spread/Moneyline: Texans -1.5 (-115)

Total: Cowboys-Jets Over 46.5 Points (-128)

Two of numberFire’s bottom-five defenses meet at MetLife on Sunday, and the Dallas Cowboys might truly be an all-time outlier in scoring D. Bringing up the rear on a schedule-adjusted basis, Dallas is also 2nd in adjusted pace and 13th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on offense. These teams have combined to allow 7.0 opposing touchdowns per game before factoring in Brandon Aubrey’s seemingly unlimited range to add three points.

Player Prop: Cam Skattebo Anytime Touchdown (-135)

Austan Kas

Spread/Moneyline: Seahawks -3.0 (-124)

Total: Patriots-Bills Under 49.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Bo Nix Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Denver Broncos are 3.5-point road 'dogs this week at the Philadelphia Eagles, and it sets up well for Nix to scramble. In his career, Nix is averaging 27.7 rushing yards per game on the road as well as 29.0 rushing yards per game in losses. He's run at least six times in three of four games this season, and Philly is allowing 20.5 rushing yards per game to QBs.

Kenyatta Storin

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -3.5 (-104)

Total: Dolphins-Panthers Under 44.5 (-115)

These two teams play rank 29th and 32nd in adjusted pace, making this easily the slowest game in average offensive pace this week. Additionally, Miami is just an average offense that will take a big hit after losing star receiver Tyreek Hill last week, and Carolina is a mere 27th in schedule-adjusted offense. Despite both teams having meh defenses, the under looks like the play.

Player Prop: Garrett Wilson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs -3 (-118)

Total: Giants-Saints Over 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Harold Fannin Jr. 4+ Receptions (+120)

Fannin has cooled down after a hot start to his first professional season, totaling five receptions the past two games after snagging seven receptions in Week 1 and five in Week 2. Even so, Fannin's utilization has actually improved as the season's progressed as he set season-best marks for snap rate (84.6%) and route participation (71.1%) in Week 4. Although Cleveland will have a new starting quarterback in Week 5, I'm bullish Fannin's team-leading 22.4% target-per-route rate sticks against a Vikings defense allowing the 10th highest target rate to tight ends while ranking top 10 in pressure rate. That should lead to plenty of short yardage looks for Fannin in the slot.

Annie Nader

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -3.5 (-104)

Total: Patriots-Bills Over 49.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Javonte Williams Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Williams is averaging 78.0 rushing yards on a 72.9% snap rate and 5.0 yards per carry. His strong start to the season has resulted in 76-plus rushing yards in three straight games. Granted, the Dallas Cowboys have seen overtime twice, but with Miles Sanders (knee/ankle) at risk of missing this contest and the Cowboys (-2.5) possibly in line to encounter their first positive game script of the season, this feels like a low bar for Williams.

Riley Thomas

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs -3 (-118)

Total: Buccaneers-Seahawks Over 44.5 (-115)

Player Prop: De'Von Achane Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Miami Dolphins have the seventh-highest pass-play rate (61.0%), but this should come down with Tyreek Hill (knee) out for the season. After logging 31 rushing attempts compared to 25 passing attempts, the Fins could finally lean on Achane's impressive efficiency of 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. Sunday’s battle against the Carolina Panthers could bring a positive game script with Miami favored by 1.5 points. Carolina allows 4.9 yards per rushing attempt (sixth-most); give me the over for Achane’s rushing total.

Skyler Carlin

Spread/Moneyline: Chiefs -3 (-118)

Total: Patriots-Bills Over 49.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Jake Ferguson 6+ Receptions (+108)

Ferguson has become a security blanket for Dak Prescott in the Cowboys' aerial attack since CeeDee Lamb went down with an injury, as he's posted a team-high 24.6% target share, 9.7 receptions per game, and 11.0 targets per game across the last three weeks. Instead of taking Ferguson's receiving yards prop, I'd rather take his alternate receptions line against a Jets team that is 25th in target rate allowed (20.9%) to TEs.

Jim Sannes

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -3.5 (-104)

Total: Patriots-Bills Over 49.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Breece Hall Any Time Touchdown (-105)

The market -- in my eyes -- is underselling the loss of Braelon Allen as I show value in both Hall's and Isaiah Davis' (+500) any time touchdown odds. Allen has handled 8 of 25 red-zone chances for the team this year, leaving plentiful key usage on the table for the two remaining backs. Hall, specifically, has played 60% of the snaps twice this year, and he has the potential to sniff 70% on Sunday. That's a key shift in an offense that wants to run the football at all times but especially near the goal line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.