NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 14

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 14

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Browns +6.5 (-105)

Total: Dolphins' Team Total Over 26.5 (+100)

Player Prop: Justin Jefferson Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

It's totally normal to fall under 100 receiving yards for five straight games... unless you're Justin Jefferson. Failing to do so this weekend would be the first time that streak has happened in Jefferson's career. Luckily, he's still had the Minnesota Vikings' best target share (24.8%) in this cold stretch, and the opposing Atlanta Falcons are numberFire's ninth-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. FanDuel Research's NFL DFS projections expect 89.3 receiving yards in Week 14.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Titans -3.5 (-102)

Total: Falcons-Vikings Under 46.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Tony Pollard Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Even with Tyjae Spears returning last week, Pollard played 73% of the snaps and handled 8 of 9 running-back rush attempts. This week, Pollard has a dream date versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that ranks 26th against the run, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Our NFL player projections have Pollard racking up 75.6 rushing yards, and game script could work in his favor with the Tennessee Titans a 3.5-point home favorite.

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -5.5 (-114)

Total: Browns-Steelers Over 43.5 (-118)

Since Jameis Winston took over as the Cleveland Browns' quarterback, their games have gone over this number three of five times, and one of those misses was due to snowy conditions against these same Pittsburgh Steelers (and just barely at 43 points). Cleveland is up to fifth in pass rate over expectation and is averaging the most plays per game. Even Winston's tendency to turn the ball over can lead to points. We saw both of these offenses ball out last week, and even though windy conditions are expected, this isn't a particularly high number they need to exceed.

Player Prop: George Pickens Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Cardinals -2.5 (-110)

Total: Raiders-Buccaneers Over 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Nick Chubb Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Chubb rushed for a season-low 21 yards last week, but I think his rushing yards prop has overreacted a bit. He was on the field for less than 40% of snaps in a game Cleveland threw 58 times, and we've seen the Browns prefer Jerome Ford as their primary recieving back. In an AFC North showdown with Pittsburgh's top-five defense, the Browns should look to the ground more and allow Chubb a heftier workload.

Annie Nader, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)

Total: Browns-Steelers Over 43.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Will Levis Over 235.5 Passing Plus Rushing Yards (-114)

Will Levis is averaging 256.5 passing + rushing yards in four games since returning from a shoulder injury thanks to an uptick in rushing volume (5.5 attempts per game) and a slightly more palatable performance in the passing game. Levis has achieved these numbers despite three of those four matchups coming against a top-7 schedule-adjusted pass defense unit. A date with the Jaguars – who rank dead-last in pass defense, let up the most passing yards, and cough up the third-most rushing yards to QBs – awaits, so Levis is in a good spot to beef up his stat line once again.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Bills -3.5 (-110)

Total: Browns-Steelers Over 43.5 (-118)

Player Prop: Brock Bowers Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Bowers has reached 125 receiving yards in two of his last three, and he’s scored a touchdown in three of his past four outings. He gets a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ fifth-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. The Bucs also give up the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends, the fifth-most yards to tight ends, and the eighth-most touchdowns to tight ends. Considering Bowers’ absurd 13.3 targets per game and 33.9% target share since Week 11, I’m expecting another huge game from the shining rookie.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)

Total: Chargers-Chiefs Over 42.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Calvin Ridley Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Besides the revenge-game narrative working for him, Ridley leads the Titans in target share (27.9%), air yards share (48.1%), and yards per route run (2.34) over the last seven weeks, per Next Gen Stats. Aside from the Jaguars giving up the second-most yards per route run to WRs (1.85), they are one of two teams who have allowed seven 100-yard receivers this season, so laddering Ridley's receiving yards to 100+ or 125+ is certainly on the table in Week 14.

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)

Total: Chargers-Chiefs Over 42.5 (-115)

The Kansas City Chiefs' offense has been much more efficient since DeAndre Hopkins' arrival, and the defense has struggled against Bryce Young and Aidan O'Connell in recent weeks. Even with the Los Angeles Chargers' receivers banged up, Justin Herbert should be able to move the ball, so I think we see points on both sides.

Player Prop: Puka Nacua Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.