The 2023-24 NBA season is already past the halfway mark. While at least half of the teams in the league are competing to put themselves in a place to make waves in the NBA playoffs, there are a good chunk of teams that already have their eyes set on the 2024 NBA Draft.

Unlike in other sports, the NBA team with the worst regular season record is not just handed the first overall pick -- instead, the NBA uses a record-weighted lottery system to determine the top of its draft order. The teams with the three worst records each earn a 14% shot to win the 1.01, giving them the best odds of landing the top pick.

Teams outside the bottom three will also have a shot at winning that first pick in the draft, but their odds of doing so decrease based on their final standings in the regular season or play-in tournament performance. Only the teams with the five worst records have better than a 10% chance of winning the pick, while teams that drop out during the play-in tournament are looking at 0.5% to 2% odds. In other words, every loss matters.

So, which teams currently have the best odds at winning the 1.01 in the 2024 NBA Draft?

Let's take a look at some of the frontrunners and their NBA Draft lottery odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. And if you'd like a more detailed breakdown of how the lottery works, check out the NBA's explainer page on the subject.

First Overall Pick Odds

The Bottom of the Barrel

If you've been following the NBA season at all, the teams at the top of the odds market here should come as no surprise to you -- the three teams with the league's worst records occupy the top spots on the odds market. The Detroit Pistons -- whose 28-game losing streak set the single-season losing streak record -- hold the worst record in the league and are tied with the San Antonio Spurs and the Washington Wizards for the best odds (+550), while the Charlotte Hornets' +600 odds rank fourth-shortest.

Just a passing glance at the chart should reveal that the odds listed closely reflect each team's current record -- the worst teams have the strongest odds, while the better teams have weaker odds. That makes sense on paper, but not every 19-24 team is built the same.

As we mentioned before, the teams with the worst three records each earn a 14% shot at the 1.01. So, are there any teams that might contend with the Pistons, Spurs, and Wizards for those coveted 14% chances?

Both the Portland Trail Blazers (+750) and the Toronto Raptors (+1000) are just a few wins ahead of the bottom teams in the league. We've already seen the Raptors make moves with an eye towards the future, trading OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks and Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers. They've lost 10 of their last 14 games and could reasonably push for one of the three worst records by the end of the season (they're 16-30 as of this writing).

Likewise, the Memphis Grizzlies (+1000) are not trending toward picking up many wins down the stretch -- just take a look at their injury report from Monday night to get a sense of how their year is going. They're a talented team that has dealt with a ton of injuries and will likely be setting their sights on the draft sooner rather than later.

Trade Deadline Movers

These odds could be in for a massive shakeup in just over a week's time. The trade deadline (Thursday, February 8th) could play a significant role in many of these teams' fortunes down the stretch. Plenty of losing teams will be looking to trade off expiring contracts and experienced veterans in the coming days, which could drastically alter the landscape at the bottom of the league.

With so much change looming on the horizon, this could be a great time to bet on this draft lottery market.

The Atlanta Hawks may be looking to deal both Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanovic. However, they're currently sitting with a 19-27 record and still have talented players like Trae Young, meaning they aren't likely to crash into the bottom three. That said, they could make moves at the deadline that would make their current +2100 seem like a value in a week's time.

The Blazers (+750) could position themselves for second-half slide. At 14-33, they're already set up for a solid shot at the 1.01, and vets like Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant could get moved to contenders before the deadline. It's also worth noting that -- according to Tankathon -- the Blazers have the hardest remaining strength of schedule. That could make for a brutal second half and help them secure one of the three 14% chances at the 1.01.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.