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NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 11/30/23: Will the Timberwolves' Defense Keep Howling?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas•_riley8

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NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 11/30/23: Will the Timberwolves' Defense Keep Howling?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

Pacers Moneyline (+108)

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat have struggled in recent games; the Pacers are 3-4 over their last seven games, and the Heat are on a three-game losing streak. Which squad will find their footing in tonight's matchup?

Miami is a two-point favorite even with Jimmy Butler questionable (ankle). Butler missed the previous game in which the Heat lost 131-124 against the Milwaukee Bucks. The six-time All-Star ranks third on the team with 20.7 points per game (PPG) and a 25.9% usage rate. Missing a key scorer could be a brutal blow against Indiana, who boasts the top offensive rating in the NBA.

The Heat have the eighth-best defensive rating, but after taking a deep dive into the stats, there are some weaknesses that the Pacers could expose. For example, the Pacers average the fourth-most converted three-pointers per game and the seventh-most attempted three-pointers per game. Miami's perimeter defense has been susceptible, holding the 13th-worst mark in attempted three-pointers allowed per game.

The potential advantages don't stop there. Indiana averages the most points in the paint per game, and the Heat allow opponents to shoot 54.6% on two-pointers (11th-worst).

Tyrese Haliburton, who ranks second in the league with a 126.4 offensive rating, could be a big problem. The NBA's assist leader is averaging 32.3 PPG and 12.8 assists per game (APG) over his previous four contests. Miami's Kyle Lowry (113.1 defensive rating) will likely be tasked with the one-on-one matchup. Standing at 6-foot, Lowry could simply lack the size to slow the 6-foot-5 Haliburton.

Indiana's defense has been a clear weakness with the league's third-worst rating. However, the unit could take away some of the Heat's strengths, such as three-point shooting. Miami ranks in the top half of attempted three-pointers per game, and the Pacers give up the fewest three-point attempts per game.

This could be a sharp upset pick for tonight's matchups -- especially with Indiana's advantages from three-point land.

Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves

Under 222.5 (-112)

The Minnesota Timberwolves hold the Association's best defensive rating. The unit could be tested tonight against the Utah Jazz, who feature one of the NBA's best three-point attacks.

Utah is on a brutal scoring stretch, though, with 102.8 PPG over their last five games (season average is 112.9 PPG). This has dropped the Jazz's offensive rating to the eighth-worst mark in the league -- so much for touting an impressive offense. Perhaps Minnesota is poised for another strong defensive showing.

The T-Wolves certainly have paint defense covered, for they have the second-best mark in blocks per game, fourth-best mark in points in the paint allowed per game, and lead the NBA in opponent two-point percentage. Utah totals 49.9 points in the paint per game (14th-best), but Minnesota has an elite interior defense that could erase this attack.

Three-point shooting could be a key to keep an eye on. This is one of the Timberwolves' only weaknesses on defense as they surrender 34.9 three-point shots per game (15th-best). As previously mentioned, the Jazz shoot the three often, averaging 38.8 attempts per game (eighth-most) and 14.0 makes per game (seventh-most).

Even with success from beyond the arc, Utah could lack the scoring for the over to hit. They made at least 15 three-pointers in the last three games, yet the Jazz averaged only 103.3 PPG during the span.

Minnesota could also limit Utah's second-chance opportunities. The Wolves average the second-most defensive rebounds per game while the Jazz lead the NBA in offensive rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage. Utah is also last in turnovers per game, and Minnesota ranks in the top half of forced turnovers per game.

Anthony Edwards, who leads the Wolves with 26.2 PPG and a 32.5% usage rate, is doubtful with a hip injury. If Minnesota is without their leading scorer, this only aids a low-scoring contest.

The Timberwolves could control the pace of this game by winning the possession battle. This likely only further fuels a slow-paced, defensive contest. The Jazz's stumbling offense against the NBA's best defense should spell the under.

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors

Clippers +5 (-110)

For my final NBA pick of the day, I'm backing another road underdog. The Los Angeles Clippers come off an impressive 131-117 win on the road against the Sacramento Kings. LA will remain in California and head to The Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors.

The Clippers just dominated the 10-7 Kings; the 8-10 Warriors could be no problem. This is lazy reasoning, though. Let's let the stats do the talking. Here's why Los Angeles could be poised for their second consecutive cover against the spread (ATS).

As usual, Golden State attempts plenty of threes at 39.7 per game (fifth-most). The Clips have a solid perimeter defense as they allow 11.5 converted threes per game (6th-fewest) and give up 34.0 three-point shots per game (11th-fewest).

The Warriors always heavily lean on Stephen Curry, who leads the team with 29.7 PPG and a 32.6% usage rate. His workload could increase even more as LA has elite wing defenders in Paul George (109.7 defensive rating) and Kawhi Leonard (106.3 defensive rating). George and Leonard could help take away Curry's counterparts, such as Andrew Wiggins (12.8 PPG).

Additionally, the Clippers total 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (eighth-most), which could help limit Golden State's second-chance opportunities as they have the sixth-best offensive rebounding percentage.

Los Angeles averages the most steals in the NBA (9.5), and the Warriors total 15.5 turnovers per game (seventh-most). The Clips' defense -- which has the league's sixth-best rating -- could frustrate yet another offense.

On the other side of the court, LA gets to the charity stripe often with the 10th-most attempted and made free throws per game. Golden State averages the second-most fouls per game while giving up 26.5 free throws per game (third-most). The Warriors could also lack the wing defenders to slow George (23.9 PPG) and Leonard (21.8 PPG). Wiggins (119.6 defensive rating) and Draymond Green (119.9 defensive rating) will likely draw the matchups with their poor defensive ratings.

The Clippers have enough to come up with a cover on the road against Golden State, who is 2-5 outright and 1-6 ATS over their previous seven home games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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