NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Toyota Owners 400
If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.
NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!
FanDuel Research is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.
With all of this in mind, let's preview this weekend's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.
Track Primer and General Lineup Strategy
NASCAR's tradition of Easter Sunday night racing continues at a new venue this year, and it's a track voted as a favorite of most drivers.
Richmond Raceway's flat, slick, 0.75-mile configuration has multiple grooves for racing and plenty of possibility for strategy to make lap time. Tire wear is as severe here as any track on the schedule, meaning an extra pit stop could actually help some cars and teams finishing a stage faster than staying out.
As has been the case with every Cup Series race at Richmond in recent memory, the 400-lap distance means 40.0 FanDuel points available for laps led. After last week's one-off ride at a road course, we're back to hunting lap leaders toward the front of the field.
However, a deviation from our strategy at Bristol might come from the value plays. Because tire wear is so severe here, there's less of a correlation between cars that qualify up front and stay fast 50 laps into a run. You can see that manifested in recent race results; of the last 30 top-10 finishers at Richmond, 46.7% of them (14) started outside the top-15 spots on the grid.
This unique layout originally made me think I'd need to lean on practice times quite a bit this weekend. While I still want to, I noticed that plenty of drivers in the median-lap blend this weekend that were fast last year at Richmond were also fast at Bristol and Phoenix -- the two short tracks so far in 2024. Some drivers just continue to stand out in this style of racing, and I don't want to forget about them even if the practice charts don't love them on Saturday.
Driver Rankings
Below are my post-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, starting order, recent form, track history, and overall talent level -- in that order.
Starting Spot is where the drivers will roll off the grid. For potential lap leaders (i.e. high-salaried drivers), closer access to the front is better. For value plays, a lower starting spot gives a higher floor and access to 0.5 points on FanDuel for each position advanced in the order.
Practice Ranks are provided for both 5-lap and 10-lap average data. Those can typically be found at iFantasyRace.com for all times, including different intervals that may be more appropriate for the track type.
Jim's Sims are the win simulations run by FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes. This week's sims were updated after practice and qualifying. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in the sims or a top-15 finish this season were included in the rankings.
MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar racetracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:
- Richmond (Fall 2023) - 30%
- Phoenix (Spring 2024) - 30%
- Richmond (Spring 2023) - 20%
- Bristol (Spring 2024) - 20%
Potential Lap-Leaders
Ty Gibbs ($12,500)
Sophomore driver Ty Gibbs keeps knocking on the door of his first career win, and he looks to be a threat again in Richmond.
Gibbs entered the weekend festivities sixth in my median-lap blend, including the second-fastest median time two weeks ago at Bristol. He posted the 10th-fastest median time in this race a year ago.
In practice and qualifying, driver #54 has taken his case to the next level. He was sixth on the 10-lap charts, fifth in the 20-lap times, and qualified a modest eighth on the starting grid.
The 21-year-old posted two top-15 finishes at Richmond a year ago. Clearly up another level in 2024, expect him to contend for the win.
Kyle Larson ($11,500)
However, the car to beat appears to be the same one it was in April 2023.
Kyle Larson won this race a year ago and led 93 laps in the process. Yet, he faded to 19th in the second 2023 event here without leading a lap. I had him eighth overall in my median blend entering Saturday, but there's a reason he now leads Jim's win probabilities (13.7%).
Larson took pole position in time trials after posting the fifth-best 10-lap average and second-best 20-lap average in practice. Not only is his Chevrolet fast in a single-lap setting, it might get better relative to the field as the run progresses.
With clean access to the front and two drivers behind him -- Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain -- that struggled on the long run in practice, I'm expecting Larson to lead plenty of laps early.
Others to Consider
- Denny Hamlin ($14,000)
- Hamlin often plays possum during practice, so his slow speeds aren't a huge concern when he lept to 11th in qualifying. The fastest median blend in this week's sample.
- Christopher Bell ($13,500)
- Starting 29th, CBell should be enormously popular, but practice times hovering in the 20s aren't implying a car fast enough to destroy the slate.
Mid-Range Threats
Chris Buescher ($11,000)
The last time the Cup Series visited this venue, Chris Buescher took home the checkered flag. Outside of a slip in qualifying, he looks to be a challenger on Easter Sunday.
Buescher posted a top-four time on both the 10-lap and 20-lap speed charts in practice, and it wasn't that surprising. Buescher had a top-11 median lap time in both Richmond races a year ago, and at the only short, flat oval in 2024 in Phoenix, he posted the 8th-best median.
From a DFS perspective, Buescher's mistake is our gain. He's starting 14th with a car significantly faster than that.
There are four drivers above $10,000 starting behind C.B. on Sunday's grid, so he might even sneak away as a less-popular option with speed and upside to potentially win the race outright.
Ryan Blaney ($9,500)
Ford has been down on speed in 2024, but they appear to have brought improved machines to Old Dominion.
Ryan Blaney is another example behind Buescher. I didn't have Blaney on a shortlist of contenders with an eighth-place median blend entering the weekend, but he's certainly ascended to that position in practice.
Blaney posted the best 10-lap average time in the garage, and his 20-lap average ranked fourth. Zooming out further, Blaney led all drivers in 30-lap averages, too.
It's possible he's got the muscle to ascend past Larson from the 12th-place starting spot, and he's got the second-highest win rate in Jim's sims (10.5%) behind the polesitter. I'll absolutely mix him into lineups.
Others to Consider
- Brad Keselowski ($10,500)
- Kes' practice times are lacking, but I'm looking at Keselowski's body of work -- like top 10s in both Richmond races last year -- as reason to consider him from a friendly 23rd starting spot.
- Joey Logano ($8,000)
- Among the Ford renaissance, Logano had the third-best 10-lap average in practice. He's finished 11th or better in 18 of his last 20 starts at Richmond.
Value Plays
Alex Bowman ($7,500)
After ascending to finish fourth last week, Alex Bowman is starting to apply his equipment to finishing results.
The former Richmond winner was arguably as fast as Larson in practice, posting the second-best 10-lap average. He was also fastest on the 20-lap charts and backed up this long-run speed with a 4th-place starting spot.
Bowman has the speed to dominate this race and lead a ton of laps, so his presence might work better in lineups with Bell, Keselowski, Buescher, and other top drivers whose place-differential upside is better than their ability to lead.
Using driver #48 in tandem with Larson, Gibbs, and Blaney leaves very little place-differential upside in a lineup.
Josh Berry ($7,000)
The reason Josh Berry has the ride he does now might have been the 2023 edition of this race.
Berry started 30th and finished 2nd subbing for Chase Elliott last April, and the late-model veteran excels at short tracks; two of his four Xfinity Series wins came on 1.0-mile or shorter configurations.
We saw that at Bristol where Berry rallied from a spin to finish 12th after starting 2nd. Starting 30th on Sunday, the #4 car is a much better value play in DFS than he was in that one.
Berry has shown speed this weekend, too. He was 9th on the 10-lap average charts, and that speed held to an 11th-place position within the 20-lap-average rankings. However, a mistake in qualifying has buried him in the field.
He's a much better fit for lineups with Larson or Gibbs that make the assumption Bowman doesn't spend too much time at the front.
Others to Consider
- Michael McDowell ($6,500)
- Top-15 times on the 10-lap and 20-lap average charts are hard to ignore from the 31st starting spot, and his popularity should be reduced after burning most DFS players a week ago.
- Ryan Preece ($6,000)
- Preece had the fastest median time at Richmond last fall, so don't discount his 14th-best time on the 10-lap charts. Like his teammate Berry, he shines on these short ovals.
- John Hunter Nemechek ($5,000)
- Toyota has been the manufacturer to beat in 2024, and JHN carries that speed at a value salary. He had top-11 times on both the 10-lap and 20-lap average charts in practice.
- Harrison Burton ($2,500)
- Burton's 7th-place time on the 10-lap and 20-lap charts wasn't too surprising to me. He's posted two top-20 finishes in four starts here. If Ford begins to turn a performance corner, the satellite teammate of Logano and Blaney should also benefit.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.