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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Cook Out 400

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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Cook Out 400

Daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel is always a blend of strategy and driver selection. That's even more true this week.

The NASCAR Cup Series is in Richmond for the Cook Out 400. It's a track with minimal chaos, meaning we tend to know which drivers will run well. You don't see a lot of out-of-nowhere contenders here.

But it's also a long race with 400 laps, leaving 40.0 FanDuel points for laps led.

What does this all mean for your lineups? Let's dig into that plus some drivers who could pop now.

Weekend Primer

Event
Time
Practice12:35 pm Eastern Saturday
Qualifying1:20 pm Eastern Saturday
Race3 pm Eastern Sunday

Practice -- as always -- will be important for Richmond.

It's important to keep in mind, though, the role tire falloff plays.

Tires degrade in a hurry in Richmond. That means that a driver's single-lap speed isn't as helpful as usual as we need them to be able to maintain that speed for an entire run.

As such, when digging into practice times, I'd emphasize lap averages, which are available in NASCAR.com's race center. This is one of the few races where single-lap speed won't even go into my model at all.

General Lineup Strategy

With this being a 400-lap race, identifying potential lap leaders will be crucial.

We've had three races at Richmond in the Next-Gen era. The perfect FanDuel lineup in those three races has had an average of 226 laps led across the five drivers, and all of them had at least one driver who led 93-plus laps.

It's important to note, though, that those lap-leaders don't necessarily need to start up front.

As mentioned before, single-lap speed isn't a great indicator of race pace. So a poor qualifying position doesn't mean a driver is slow. Joey Logano led 222 laps last year after starting 17th. So while we should bump up the laps-led potential of drivers starting up front, it's not as front-centric of an approach as you'd see in New Hampshire or Martinsville.

Driver Analysis

As with every week, which drivers you want to prioritize will change dramatically once we have practice and qualifying data. But here's how my model ranks each driver in terms of their win equity for this week, along with their FanDuel salary and NASCAR betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Driver
FanDuel Salary
Win Odds
Win Sims
Podium
Top 10
Martin Truex, Jr.$14,00040015.2%37.9%76.5%
Denny Hamlin$13,00060011.5%31.1%71.0%
William Byron$11,50080010.6%30.0%70.9%
Kyle Larson$13,5006009.4%24.9%67.7%
Kevin Harvick$12,5009007.3%19.6%59.7%
Christopher Bell$12,0007006.5%20.0%58.2%
Brad Keselowski$8,20024005.5%16.4%53.8%

The clear standout at the top is Martin Truex Jr.

Truex is a three-time Richmond winner, and they've all come in the past eight races. He has led 50-plus laps in 10 of the past 13 Richmond races, and he has topped the century mark seven times in that span. Given Truex's spicy form, he'd need to have wretched practice data to get bumped down too far.

The mid-range this week is pretty enticing, which may make it easier to jam in three potential lap-leaders. William Byron ($11,500) has led 100-plus laps twice in three Next-Gen Richmond races, including this spring. He hasn't always turned that into good finishes, but the speed is clearly there.

Just above him is Christopher Bell ($12,000), who has always excelled on short, flat tracks, including Richmond. In five Cup races here with Joe Gibbs Racing, he has never finished worse than sixth.

Finally, you've got Kyle Busch ($11,000). Busch is a six-time Richmond winner, so you may wonder why his salary is down here. That's due to the struggles Richard Childress Racing has had on the short, flat tracks this year, including a 14th-place run for Busch here in the spring. He'll be a guy to monitor in practice to see if he can tap back into his old form.

Among those with salaries below $10,000, the standout in my eyes is Brad Keselowski ($8,200). I think Keselowski is a legitimate threat to win this race thanks to the speed he has shown on short, flat tracks and those with heavy tire falloff. Richmond is both, and Keselowski used that speed to finish top-10 here in the fall. Even if Keselowski qualifies well, dampening his place-differential appeal, I wouldn't fully cross him off.

The other guy worth mentioning is Chase Briscoe ($7,000). Briscoe has been hideous in the intermediate rules package this year, but they're running the short-track package this week. In seven races using this package (including road courses and Bristol dirt), Briscoe has four top-10s and two top-fives. Three of the top-10s came at Martinsville, Phoenix, and New Hampshire, all which are short, flat tracks. If you look at Briscoe's player card to see recent finishes, make sure you account for that and downplay the weight you put into the races on larger tracks.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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