Among all the tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Richmond is one of those where you best know what to expect.

Not only has the Cup Series already raced there once this year, but the incident rate at Richmond is among the lowest in the sport. With few crashes, we don't see as many quality drivers finishing toward the back as we'd see in most other events.

Obviously, that has a big impact on betting. You're better able to justify drivers at short odds, knowing that as long as they're fast, there aren't as many obstacles between them and a quality finish.

That doesn't mean surprise winners are completely off the table, though. We just need to make sure they have the upside to hang with the big boys.

I think we have that this week, at least to an extent. But based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Richmond, I believe the smarter way to bet this potential surprise is in the non-outright markets. We'd still benefit if he pops off, but we don't need him to beat every single stud.

As long as he's in the top three, I'll be happy. Let's dig into who that driver is and why I'm leaning on those markets for Sunday's Cook Out 400.

Brad Keselowski to Podium (+750); Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+105)

If Brad Keselowski were +3000 or longer at FanDuel, I'd bet him there. He's 5.5% to win in my model, up from 3.2% implied at that number.

But -- unfortunately for us -- his outright odds are +2400, pushing that implied mark up to 4.0%. It's still a value. But the podium market is where the value truly lies at FanDuel.

There, Keselowski is +750, translating to 11.8% implied odds. My model puts Keselowski at 16.4% to finish inside the top three, plenty enough cushion for me.

The reason my model is high on Keselowski is twofold. First, Keselowski and RFK Racing have excelled on tracks with heavy tire falloff. His teammate, Chris Buescher, nearly won this race last year, and Keselowski also had speed in both Richmond races. Keselowski was fifth in Homestead last year and fourth in Darlington this year, other tracks with massive tire degradation.

Second, Keselowski has run well on other short, flat tracks in 2023. He had average running positions of sixth, ninth, and eighth in Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire, respectively. He finished top five in just one of those, but the speed has been there.

Keselowski was top-10 in another of those races, though, and it's part of why I like the top-10 market here, as well. Keselowski is 53.8% to finish top 10 by my numbers, up from 48.8% implied at +105.

If you decide to bet both markets, I'd scale them, putting a smaller stake on the podium market than the top 10 to the extent where you'd profit as long as Keselowski is inside the top 10. Keselowski's history at Richmond is phenomenal, so the outright is an option, but with FanDuel's markets where they are, I do think this is the proper way to play things.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.