Homestead is always a tough nut to crack when trying to bet the NASCAR Cup Series.

On the one hand, we should know who will do well because it's a track where a very specific type of driver runs best. Those are drivers willing to rim ride, nearly scraping the wall in order to maximize the car's speed.

On the other, the Cup Series races here just once each season, so our sample for track history is limited. In the Next-Gen era, specifically, it's just two races.

So, we want drivers with good track history, but we also don't want to cross off drivers who haven't necessarily popped because it's such a small sample.

It's not a fun position to be in.

With that said, I do think there's at least one driver this week with a proven track record here, good form, and forgiving betting odds.

Let's dig into which driver that is and why he's a value to me relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. Then we'll lay out which other bets I like after considering all the factors prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR at Homestead Betting Picks

William Byron to Win (+800)

(UPDATE: Byron has since lengthened to +1300 to win. This is because Byron qualified 25th, but he actually had the fastest 10-lap average for Group B in practice. I remain bullish on Byron, and while I wouldn't add to your position if you bet him earlier in the week, he's my favorite outright on the board for those who haven't yet bet him.)

It came before the Next-Gen era, but William Byron already has a Homestead win on his resume. That came in 2021, just the second win of his career. I think he can add another Sunday.

During the two Next-Gen races, Byron's average running positions have been sixth and fourth. He converted one of those into a top-five finish, as well.

Across two playoff races on 1.5-mile tracks, Byron's finishes are second (Kansas) and fourth (Las Vegas). He also podiumed at both Charlotte and Texas earlier in the year, so this has been his strongest track type in 2024.

My model has Byron at 13.5% to win, second to only Kyle Larson, and above his 11.1% implied odds. Given the convergence of track history and current form, I agree with the model on this one.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+310)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since lengthened to +370 to finish top 5. Although my model has cooled on him due to middling practice times, I have him at 23.9%, so he is still at least a slight value at the lengthened number.)

I was on Ty Gibbs to finish top-five last week, and it started off great. He qualified eighth, was sixth in the opening stage, and even led 23 laps.

He then sped on pit road and eventually spun trying to get back on the lead lap, dumping the good vibes in the toilet.

But we're going back to the well again.

Despite that showing, Gibbs has still been great on similar tracks this year. He finished top-five in the first Vegas race, the first in Darlington, and the second in Kansas, showing the form has been there throughout the season. He was also sixth in Charlotte with a fourth-place average running position.

As for Homestead, he was second there in his lone Xfinity Series race, and he was seventh last year. It's a sample of just three races, but the results have been encouraging thus far.

As a result, I'm once again pretty far above market with Gibbs' implied top-five odds at just 24.3%. I've also got value on him to finish top-10 at -120, but I'd prefer to ride with the upside here.

Chris Buescher to Finish Top 10 (+180)

(UPDATE: Buescher has since lengthened to +220 to finish top 10. Similar to Byron, he showed good speed in practice, and my model remains well above market on Buescher. He would be my favorite top-10 bet at current odds.)

Chris Buescher's a guy where I want to be a bit lenient with how I view his track history.

In eight career Cup Series races here, Buescher's best finish is 13th. That makes it tough to justify betting him +180 for a top 10.

But in 2021, Buescher actually won a stage here, leading 57 laps. That 13th-place finish came in 2022, the first year of the Next-Gen era, as well.

The bigger thing for me is what he has done on similar tracks. Buescher nearly won Kansas -- another multi-groove track -- and has finished 6th, 11th, and 10th across Darlington, Kansas, and Vegas recently. He also could have won the first Darlington race this year, which is key given how similar tire falloff is there to Homestead.

Based on that pop race in 2021 and his form on similar tracks, I think Buescher's Homestead results should trend up going forward. The model agrees, putting his top 10 odds at 42.7%, up from 35.7% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

You'll notice a theme, both in the updated notes above and in these two post-qualifying recommendations: I think bookmakers have overreacted to the starting grid. Homestead is a place where tire falloff matters, lowering the importance of single-lap pace. Thus, a poor starting spot is far from a death sentence.

Daniel Suarez will start 23rd, but that doesn't bother me much at all.

There was a big speed discrepancy between the two practice groups with Group A practicing while the track was faster. It led to no Group B drivers ranking better than seventh in 10-lap average. Thus, we need to make a pretty big adjustment for practice speeds or else we'll underrate every driver who wound up in Group B.

That includes Suarez, who ranked fifth in 10-lap average once you make that adjustment. Considering that his teammate, Ross Chastain, won Kansas while Suarez finished third in Las Vegas (even if it was aided by fuel strategy), this shouldn't shock us.

Suarez finished 10th here with Trackhouse Racing in 2022 and won the Xfinity Series championship here back in 2016, leading 133 of 200 laps. This isn't a bad track for him, so I agree with the model, which has Suarez well above his 8.3% implied top 10 odds at 22.7%.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+1500)

The story with Todd Gilliland is the same as with Suarez: he was in the slower Group B, masking quality practice times, and qualified poorly. He's not as big of a value as Suarez, but I do still like him enough at this number.

Gilliland -- after making group adjustments -- ranked 14th and 11th in 10- and 15-lap average, respectively. The pace was there, even if it didn't show up over a single lap.

That's reassuring after Gilliland struggled mightily in both Vegas and Kansas. Those two races put me lower than usual on Gilliland entering the weekend, but I do think practice was encouraging.

My model definitely isn't slobbering over Gilliland, putting his top-10 odds at 9.0%. But that's still a good bit above his 6.3% implied odds, so I'm willing to add him to my betslip.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.