If you want to win this week's South Point 400 in Las Vegas, you gotta go through Kyle Larson.

Larson is +280 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. I had been planning to write him up as he was +340 earlier Thursday afternoon, but the shortening was justified. I've got Larson at 25.2% to win, which translates to +297 as fair odds.

So, it's a situation where the favorite's betting odds are deservedly short, and he's sucking up tons of win equity. As a result, we've got to be picky with how we fill out our card.

Luckily for me, the consolation prize is showing value on the guy my model ranks second behind Larson entering the weekend.

Let's dig into who that is plus another driver I like this week as my top bets prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Best Bets for Las Vegas

Denny Hamlin to Win (+1000)

(UPDATE: Hamlin has since shortened to +750 to win. Although my model is still high on him, I'm no longer above market, so I wouldn't add Hamlin at his current odds.)

It has been a tumultuous year for Denny Hamlin.

After winning three races early, he enters on a 21-race winless drought. Since that last win, he has gotten a massive points penalty -- which hurt his odds of finally winning his first championship -- and filed a federal lawsuit against NASCAR.

Not great, Bob!

I do think Hamlin can get the good vibes flowing again this week, though. He has still had speed since that win, posting top-fives in Kansas, Darlington, and Charlotte, all of which have some overlap with Las Vegas. He also won the pole in Michigan and led laps in Pocono and Indianapolis, tracks where raw horsepower wins out.

As a result, my model ranks Hamlin second behind Larson and puts his win odds at 11.9%, up from his implied odds of 9.1%. I do wish he had run out front more of late, but a number this long can help assuage those concerns.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+310)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since shortened to +180 to finish top 5. He's actually still a value for me there, and I do show value in his outright at +1400, as well.)

I've got value on Ty Gibbs to win at +2400, and I don't mind if you want to go that route. I just prefer the top-five market given he still has two teammates alive in the Round of 8, meaning all of Joe Gibbs Racing's attention will be focused there.

These higher-speed tracks have been great to Gibbs in 2024. He was fifth in the first Las Vegas race and has since added top-fives in Darlington, Michigan, and the playoff race in Kansas. He was also sixth in Charlotte with a fourth-place average running position.

Gibbs is going to break through eventually, and it could well be here. It would be a bummer not to bet him for his first win. But I've got Gibbs well above his 24.4% implied odds to finish top 5, so I'm content to plug him in and still profit should he snatch that checkered flag.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ross Chastain to Finish Top 5 (+220)

Ross Chastain played playoff spoiler a couple weeks ago in Kansas, claiming victory despite not making the cut at the end of the regular season.

I've got value in him to win again today at +1700. But the value here is pretty nice, too.

After qualifying, my model has Chastain at 35.6% to finish top 5, up from 31.3% implied. Chastain typically is slow in practice, but he ranked inside the top five in single-, 5-, and 10-lap pace. He then qualified seventh, again better than what he typically does.

This isn't a massive surprise as Vegas is a good track for Chastain. In five Next-Gen races at the track, he has four top-fives, and he had a fifth-place average running position in the one race he missed that mark. Thus, I agree with the model that Chastain is worth buying into at this price.

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Which drivers stand out to you on Sunday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.