MLB Betting: Are the Twins the Best Bet in a Lackluster AL Central?
The American League Central is a lot like the National League Central -- except the teams in contention aren't as exciting.
All five teams in the AL Central are battling to hit .500 in a division that is as open as any in baseball, with no clear team standing out as we near the halfway point of the campaign.
The Minnesota Twins have the inside track right now, but it's no forgone conclusion that the Twins -- a team one game over .500 -- win the AL Central.
Here's a look at the current AL Central odds via the MLB division winner odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Team | Odds |
---|---|
Minnesota Twins | -260 |
Cleveland Guardians | +260 |
Chicago White Sox | +1200 |
Detroit Tigers | +5000 |
Kansas City Royals | +25000 |
Note: Kansas City (+25000) will not be featured
Minnesota Twins
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -260
Record: 40-39 (first in AL Central)
The Minnesota Twins have been the best of the subpar AL Central and are the clear betting favorites to win the division as we head into the second half.
It shouldn't come as too much of a shock that the Twins are back on top of the AL Central as their 2022 season was a letdown considering the talent the roster had. When they were able to bring back Carlos Correa after his offseason carousel, things were looking up. They also made the move that sent batting-average stud Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins for starter Pablo Lopez -- a swap that's benefitted both sides.
Lopez has helped the Twins to the best skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in the league at 3.75. Adding Lopez to a rotation featuring an emerging Joe Ryan and revitalized Sonny Gray has been what has kept the Twins at the top of the AL Central. Pitching should remain the strength of this squad as the season progresses.
The offense, however, is where Minnesota struggles. No team in the majors strikes out like the Twins do. They lead the league in strikeout rate at 27.0% -- not a statistic any offense wants to lead in. The Twins rank 21st with a .312 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Where the Twins' offense has excelled, at least, is with the home-run ball, ranking seventh overall in dingers (103).
The Twins have the makings of a playoff team with their elite pitching, and being in the division that they're in certainly helps. If they can pick it up on offense and keep the pitching rolling, Minnesota profiles as a deserving favorite.
Cleveland Guardians
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +260
Record: 37-40 (second in AL Central)
The Cleveland Guardians haven't had the same magic they had last season, but they're still well in the fight for the AL Central.
Jose Ramirez and the Guardians' lineup has been among the worst in 2023. While Ramirez remains incredibly solid with 12 home runs, an 8.9% strikeout rate, and .358 wOBA, the rest of the offense is the opposite.
As a team, Cleveland is hitting for a .298 wOBA, although they are striking out the second-least in the league at 19.1%. Their main problem is a lack of power as they're not creating much offense through the long-ball. The Guardians have hit just 50 home runs as a team this season. Not only is that the fewest in baseball, it is 11 fewer than the 29th-ranked team. Not great.
For the Guardians, it's always been the pitching that has led them in their playoff runs over the last decade. However, pitching has not been a bright spot for them this season. Cleveland has a team SIERA of 4.39, which ranks 26th. Last season, they were 12th in SIERA and wound up making the playoffs.
The good news for the Guardians is that they're only 2.0 games back of the Twins despite their deficiencies.
If you're looking for a decent bet, the Guardians' +260 odds are fairly enticing for a team that'll likely be in the hunt until the end of the season.
Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1200
Record: 34-45 (fourth in AL Central)
For all the talent the Chicago White Sox possess, they're just not getting it done.
While they have the third-best odds out of the five teams in the division, the White Sox are currently sitting in fourth place and are 6.0 games back of the Twins.
A team that has so many young stars on offense shouldn't struggle so much, but the Pale Hose's offensive stats are ugly. Chicago is 27th with a .297 wOBA and is tied for 25th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) with 87.
In terms of pitching, the White Sox are in the middle of the pack, with Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease leading the way. Cease has heated up of late, but his overall numbers are down from his previous two seasons. His 4.10 SIERA and 26.9% strikeout rate are both his worst marks since the shortened 2020 campaign.
As a team, the White Sox are 16th in SIERA at 4.14. What they do have going for them is a 24.8% strikeout rate that ranks fifth in the league.
There are no signs of the White Sox turning it around this season, but the one thing they benefit from is the AL Central being what it is. Chicago sitting just 6.0 games back despite being nine games under .500 says a lot.
Still, this roster has the talent to go on a run, and one hot streak could put them right back into the thick of it. If you're searching for a long-shot, you could do worse than rolling the dice on Chicago's +1200 odds to win the division.
Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +5000
Record: 33-43 (third in AL Central)
The Detroit Tigers aren't out of the race in the AL Central as we head into the second half. It's not because the Tigers have been a good team, but, again, it's due to no one in the division having the ability to run away with it.
Detroit sits 5.5 games back from the division lead, and as we have seen countless times with the game of baseball, anything is possible.
The Tigers' offense has been among the worst in the MLB. Their .292 wOBA is second-worst, ahead of only the 20-win Oakland Athletics. Detroit's 86 wRC+ is 27th in the majors.
Pitching has been a bright spot as the team's staff has a 4.08 SIERA, which ranks 14th-best. That is the same rank as Detroit's 4.20 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP). Detroit is also due to get back Tarik Skubal, a lefty who showed flashed of being an ace in 2022 prior to getting hurt.
You never know with baseball, and as we just laid out for the White Sox, one hot surge could put Detroit right in contention. A 5.5-game deficit isn't bad at all considering the Tigers' extreme long-shot odds (+5000).
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.