With training camps officially underway, the 2023-24 fantasy football season is finally here!

Today, let's look at Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams, who led the Chargers in receiving yards last season and is expected to be one of the first 27 wide receivers taken in fantasy drafts this year.

What's his fantasy football outlook for 2023?

Mike Williams Fantasy Football Projection

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 113.50 points
2023 Projected Points: 159.38 points
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: WR15
2023 Projected Stats:

• 122.98 targets
• 75.86 receptions
• 1,066.30 yards
• 8.18 touchdowns

Mike Williams 2023 Fantasy Outlook

Last Season Wasn't as Bad as It Seemed

Williams set career-highs in targets (129), receptions (76), and yards (1,146) in 2021-22 and entered last season with high hopes for a true breakout campaign. Instead, he battled through multiple injuries and wound up missing four games for a Chargers offense that largely underwhelmed preseason expectations.

While Williams' 2022-23 season was limited by injuries, there were plenty of positives when he was on the field, though.

He recorded his second-highest number of targets (93) and receptions (63) while earning the second-highest Pro Football Focus offense grade (78.9) and receiving grade (79.3) of his six-year career. His 12.7 average depth of target (aDOT) was his lowest since 2018, but it resulted in a career-high in reception percentage (70.0%).

Entering this season, Williams is being drafted as if his 2021-22 season was an exception, not the rule.

In reality, he backed up that season's production last season and was posting similar numbers on a per-game basis with the exception of touchdowns. The Chargers' passing game struggled to convert inside the 20-yard line last season, with Justin Herbert posting a career-low red zone touchdown rate of 20%. Some positive regression should come this season in that area.

Williams nearly maintained his 2021-22 numbers despite the Chargers employing a more conservative passing game under offense coordinator Joe Lombardi, and Herbert dealing with a rib cartilage fracture he suffered in Week 2. Herbert's 6.8 yards per attempt last season was the lowest of his career, a statistic that disproportionally impacted Williams, who typically operates much further downfield than Keenan Allen.

With all of this working against him, Williams still averaged 11.2 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring, the 23rd-best among wide receivers last year and four spots ahead of his current ADP.

Potential Changes in 2023

The Chargers offseason went about as well as it possibly could have for Williams.

The Chargers immediately moved on from Joe Lombardi, and they brought in Kellen Moore shortly after he was let go by the Dallas Cowboys.

Moore had just guided Dallas' offense to the third-most points in the league (467) but the Cowboys deemed Dak Prescott' 15 interceptions too high a price to pay for that level of production. Moore's desire to operate an explosive vertical passing game will find no such resistance in Los Angeles, where it is a perfect fit for Herbert's skill set.

In January, Herbert underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, proof of an additional injury he was battling last season. He is expected to be fully healthy for the start of this season and just signed a five-year, $265-million contract extension, making him the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history.

In April's draft, the Chargers selected wide receiver Quentin Johnston with the 21st overall pick. While Johnston's addition to the team could provide some target competition for Williams, it will also create more exploitable coverage situations if defenses are forced to account for the rookie. It's also another signal that the Chargers are all in on operating a pass-first offense this season with a significant focus on vertical routes.

Where is Williams Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with similar average draft positions (ADP). Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

Williams is currently the 27th wide receiver coming off the board in FanDuel's best-ball contests. Per FantasyPros' ADP, Williams is the WR26 and 69th overall.

Selecting Williams at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers such as Tyler Lockett and Brandon Aiyuk, running backs such as Isiah Pacheco and Rachaad White, tight end Darren Waller, and quarterback Dak Prescott.

Williams checks out pretty favorably when you compare him to those players.

Lockett and Aiyuk are talented pass-catchers, but both have slightly more target competition and worse quarterback play than Williams.

Pacheco is coming off an impressive rookie season, but Jerick McKinnon has an established pass-catching role that could limit his ceiling. White had a decent rookie season, but he will be operating in a drastically worse offense this season after Tom Brady's retirement.

Waller is set up to operate as the focal point of the New York Giants' passing game but has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons and hasn't been able to replicate his impressive campaigns from 2019-2021.

Prescott has been a steady fantasy option for years now but could be operating a more conservative offense after the Cowboys let Kellen Moore leave this offseason.

Final Verdict

As it stands, Williams is set to be the primary target in an explosive offense that wants to focus on what he does best, which also happens to be a strength of his elite quarterback's game. It's a perfect storm for fantasy production.

Williams is in a far better situation than he was entering last season and has a lower ADP. Is there an injury risk? Of course, but that risk is more than accounted for at his current ADP.

His primary target competition is Keenan Allen, who, at age 31, is also coming off a season where he missed significant time due to injury. If Allen were to miss time again for any reason, Williams would find himself in a situation that would likely project for top-10 wide receiver scoring on a weekly basis.

Williams is an excellent selection at his current ADP as a key component of an offense with sky-high potential this season.

If you are risk averse and want to avoid both Williams and Allen due to their injury histories, that's understandable, but if that's the case -- don't leave your drafts without Quentin Johnston.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.