Michigan State vs USC College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 5

The Michigan State Spartans (12-2, 2-1 Big Ten) will host the USC Trojans (12-2, 1-2 Big Ten) after winning three straight home games.
Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.
Michigan State vs. USC Game Info and Odds
- Game day: Monday, January 5, 2026
- Game time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: Fox Sports 1
- Location: East Lansing, Michigan
- Arena: Jack Breslin Students Events Center
Michigan State vs. USC Picks and Prediction
All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Michigan State win (77.8%)
Take a look at these betting trends and insights before you bet on Monday's Michigan State-USC spread (Michigan State -10.5) or total (151.5 points).
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Michigan State vs. USC: ATS Betting Stats and Trends
- Michigan State has won seven games against the spread this season, while failing to cover seven times.
- USC has put together a 6-7-0 record against the spread this season.
- Michigan State covers the spread when it is a 10.5-point favorite or more 25% of the time. That's more often than USC covers as an underdog of 10.5 or more (never covered this season).
- The Spartans did a better job covering the spread on the road (7-2-0) than they did at home (10-6-0) last season.
- The Trojans' winning percentage against the spread at home last year was .421 (8-11-0). Away, it was .400 (4-6-0).
Michigan State vs. USC: Moneyline Betting Stats
- Michigan State has been named as the moneyline favorite 10 times this year and has yet to lose any of those games.
- The Spartans have yet to lose in seven games when named as moneyline favorite of -690 or better.
- USC has been listed as the moneyline underdog only one other time so far this season, a game it lost.
- The Trojans have played as a moneyline underdog of +480 or longer in just one game this season, which they lost.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Michigan State has a 87.3% chance of pulling out a win.
Michigan State vs. USC Head-to-Head Comparison
- Michigan State has a +191 scoring differential, topping opponents by 13.6 points per game. It is putting up 79 points per game to rank 141st in college basketball and is allowing 65.4 per contest to rank 26th in college basketball.
- Jaxon Kohler is 384th in college basketball with a team-high 14.1 points per game.
- USC puts up 87.7 points per game (30th in college basketball) while giving up 76.8 per contest (263rd in college basketball). It has a +153 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 10.9 points per game.
- Chad Baker-Mazara is ranked 27th in the nation with a team-high 20.4 points per game.
- The Spartans win the rebound battle by an average of 13.9 boards. They are collecting 39.9 rebounds per game (eighth in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 26 per contest.
- Kohler tops the team with 10.4 rebounds per game (13th in college basketball play).
- The 34.6 rebounds per game the Trojans accumulate rank 111th in the country, four more than the 30.6 their opponents pull down.
- Jacob Cofie's 6.6 rebounds per game lead the Trojans and rank 218th in the nation.
- Michigan State's 101.7 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 100th in college basketball, and the 84.2 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 37th in college basketball.
- The Trojans rank 80th in college basketball with 103.3 points scored per 100 possessions, and 140th defensively with 90.5 points conceded per 100 possessions.
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