We are inching closer to training camps opening up for NFL teams, which means it's time to prepare for fantasy football drafts.

Today, let's look at Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers. He's one of the most unique offensive players in the NFL, and that makes him tricky to handle for fantasy.

What we do know is that Samuel is one of the most talented players in the NFL with the ball in his hands. But the volume and how he'll get his touches are where things are a bit up in the air.

Deebo Samuel Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 125 targets, 75 receptions, 968 yards, 5.37 receiving TDs, 38 rushing attempts, 210 yards, 2.4 rushing TDs (201.92 half-PPR points)

numberFire Positional Projection: WR14

Deebo Samuel Fantasy Football Outlook

Heading into the 2022 fantasy draft season, everyone wanted to draft Samuel after the stretch run he had for the 49ers. He was a rare dual threat at the wide receiver position, being used as a running back as well as being split out wide.

In the last eight games of the 2021 season, Deebo had over 20 half-PPR points in four of them. In the playoffs, he continued to be used like a running back. He averaged 15.4 fantasy points in three playoff games and was the talk of the NFL for how he was utilized.

There were some people who were concerned with this usage with regard to Samuel's fantasy value, though. After he started to be used like a running back, he needed to rely on remarkable efficiency to score points. It's not always the best strategy in fantasy to bet on players to repeat their efficiency, especially when it's an outlier.

Ultimately, Samuel had a middling 2022 season, and the volume concern came to fruition. He saw double-digit targets in just 2 of 16 games between the regular season and the playoffs. With the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey midway through the season, he saw a significant drop off in the number of carries he got, as well.

He missed some time due to injury, but Samuel really struggled to produce fantasy points when on the field after the McCaffrey trade. He had just three games over 10 half-PPR points in the 10 games with CMC. This is certainly a concern for Samuel moving forward.

Deebo did see more targets in some games but never had more than four carries until the NFC Championship game that was a mess because of quarterback injuries. We’d rather see him get targets than get carries because players generally score more fantasy points from a target than a carry.

The other issue with Deebo is the type of targets he will get. In 2021, Samuel's average depth of target (aDOT) was already low at just 8.3 yards. But in 2022, that aDOT shrunk to a minuscule 4.4 yards. That's an aDOT lower than some running backs, who typically see the shortest targets.

2023 Season Outlook

So, we know what some of the concerns that will plague Deebo heading into this season are, but we also have to have a slight question mark over his quarterback.

As of now, it seems likely that Brock Purdy will be the starting quarterback for the Niners based on what Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have been saying. Purdy picked up the offense well to end last season, but question marks will remain about his true talent level.

Purdy was the last overall pick in the 2022 draft but slotted into a near-perfect situation. He had playmakers nearly everywhere he looked, with Deebo, McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk being available as targets. All he really had to was get the ball to these guys, and they could pretty much do the rest.

The offensive line was also elite, but it suffered a huge loss this offseason when Mike McGlinchey signed with the Denver Broncos. PFF ranks San Francisco's offensive line as just the 18th-best unit in the league heading into this season.

The competition for targets, questionable talent at quarterback, and a potentially-shaky offensive line are strikes against drafting Deebo. The latter two factors could lead to another season with a low aDOT, which isn't what we would like to see.

Samuel could see some rushing work, especially if one of McCaffrey or Elijah Mitchell misses any time. Again, we'd rather see him get more targets and deeper down the field, but having him get the ball in a different way does help. Nearly every other receiver in the league would not have the same option.

In 2021, Samuel was able to turn his 8.3 aDOT into 3.03 yards per route run (YPRR). Last season, that 4.4 aDOT only resulted in 1.72 YPRR. His efficiency was off the charts in that season, and it's really hard for that to continue.

Where Should We Draft Samuel in 2023?

Samuel is currently being drafted as the WR16, the 39th player overall in half-PPR drafts, according to FantasyPros.

That's behind where we have him ranked on numberFire. However, that doesn't necessarily make him a clear value. He saw just 11.85% of the team's air yards, which was behind the likes of Kendrick Bourne, Zach Ertz, and Ben Skowronek.

Some players being drafted in the same range, like Amari Cooper, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Olave and Terry McLaurin, were all over 30% in this metric. It's unlikely Samuel will improve much in this area given what we know about the 49ers' overall situation.

Samuel finished as only the WR26 in half-PPR points per game last season. That result is definitely something that could happen again this year.

The case for Samuel going here is that he has a game-breaking ability that most receivers don't possess. PFF ranked him as the best receiver after the catch in the NFL, and he's definitely capable of making short passes into long gains.

If we are shooting for the massive upside, Deebo is an interesting player to draft. It does take a bit of a leap of faith, however.

For him to be a truly elite fantasy receiver, at least one of three things needs to happen. He needs to be incredibly efficient on short targets, needs to see either more targets or deeper targets, or needs to score a lot of rushing touchdowns.

He is capable of doing these things, but it’s tough to bet on him doing it frequently enough to pay off his ADP.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.