NZ - Te Rapa - Race 5

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

10.6K

VIEW

Verdict

MUSTANG MORGAN (2) contested some hot fields as a 3-year-old, and is heading back into some winning form again after having 3 runs back from a spell this season, including his last start at Taupo nearly 3 weeks ago when finishing a narrowly beaten second by a short-head as the favourite. He cops a tougher gate, but is now spot on to go one better. Follow your money. SMILING EYES (13) travelled up to them like the winner at Otaki last time out, but was dour to the line, finishing a sound fourth. There will be no more fitness excuses fifth up, and she has a good chance to win a race like this. Stick with her. VENDABELLE (14) let down strongly when winning her maiden in her penultimate start, before failing to fire at Ellerslie in a tougher field there 3 weeks ago. Go again here. GIPPSY GOD (1) has been holding his form strongly since winning his maiden at Taupo in the spring. He benefits from a 7lbs claim and can't be ruled out of winning this. INCREDIBLE (4) is a sound top 4 hope here.

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Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
2	Recent form sound. At the latest run came from midfield, 2nd of 9 at Taupo on December 28 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, head behind Top Dollar carrying 132lbs at $2.50. Before that held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Trentham on December 6 over 1m, slow going 0.9 len behind Knickerless with 132lbs at $3.70. Winning chance. 1st Pick 2 Mustang Morgan Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Craig Grylls T: Andrew Forsman	177	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run came from midfield, 2nd of 9 at Taupo on December 28 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, head behind Top Dollar carrying 132lbs at $2.50. Before that held ground to the line 3rd of 14 at Trentham on December 6 over 1m, slow going 0.9 len behind Knickerless with 132lbs at $3.70. Winning chance.
13	Most recently 4th of 13 at Otaki on December 26 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Thrilling carrying 118lbs at $6.10. The run before that 6th of 11 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 1 5/16m, slow going 3.5 len behind Casemiro carrying 126lbs at $8. Terrific chance to return to form. 2nd Pick 13 Smiling Eyes Jockey: Jack Taplin Trainer: Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray J: Jack Taplin T: Shaune Ritchie & Colm Murray	80	-	-	-	5%	20/1
Analysis Most recently 4th of 13 at Otaki on December 26 over 1m, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Thrilling carrying 118lbs at $6.10. The run before that 6th of 11 at Pukekohe on December 6 over 1 5/16m, slow going 3.5 len behind Casemiro carrying 126lbs at $8. Terrific chance to return to form.
14	Last start ran last of 11 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 9 len behind Reliable Squeeze with 125lbs at $8.70. The run before that won by a long-neck at Tauranga December 12 over 1 5/16m in soft going defeating Romanin carrying 125lbs at $1.70. Expected to be in the finish. 3rd Pick 14 Vendabelle Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Ken & Bev Kelso J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Ken & Bev Kelso	92	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis Last start ran last of 11 at Ellerslie on December 26 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 9 len behind Reliable Squeeze with 125lbs at $8.70. The run before that won by a long-neck at Tauranga December 12 over 1 5/16m in soft going defeating Romanin carrying 125lbs at $1.70. Expected to be in the finish.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.