NZ - Te Aroha - Race 10

Thoroughbred

18 Runners

Unknown

Turf

SOFT 5

14.0K

VIEW

R10

Verdict

ACAPELAGO (3) was only beaten by a head at Ellerslie in a stronger field fresh up, and then was well beaten there last time out when not having much luck in the running. She slides down in grade and can get the job done this time. I AM NUTZ (1) has been building his fitness with 3 starts back from a spell. He looked a lot more like his old self at Tauranga 11 days ago, over 1200, and with the extra furlong to travel this time, he can figure in the top 3 at some decent odds. SIR FERGUS (15) has plenty of ability, and he will be peaking third up from a spell. Each way claims in this field. LARIUS LACUS (11) was solid when resuming at Pukekohe 18 days ago, finishing fifth, and she will have the aid of a 7lbs claim this time. Stick with her, especially from the pole position. PERUGIA (13) was a game third fresh up over 6f, and the extra furlong here will suit her. Include in all top 4 multiples.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 2nd of 14 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 6f, on a slow track, head behind Celestial Wonder with 119lbs at $10.20. Second-up raced behind the speed prior to fading second last of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind She's A Dealer carrying 121lbs at $11.50. Worth forgiving and can turn things around. 1st Pick 3 Acapelago Jockey: Masahiro Hashizume Trainer: Simon & Katrina Alexander J: Masahiro Hashizume T: Simon & Katrina Alexander	148	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Third-up today and won third-up previously. First-up 2nd of 14 at Ellerslie on September 20 over 6f, on a slow track, head behind Celestial Wonder with 119lbs at $10.20. Second-up raced behind the speed prior to fading second last of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, on a slow track, 10 len behind She's A Dealer carrying 121lbs at $11.50. Worth forgiving and can turn things around.
10	Last start from last on the turn 7th of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Mad Max with 126lbs at $7.20. The race before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 5th of 16 at Ellerslie on October 18 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Summerston carrying 126lbs at $23.20. Finds a nice race and is among the winning hopes. 2nd Pick 10 Amusement Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Darryn & Briar Weatherley J: Non Runner T: Darryn & Briar Weatherley	82	-	-	-	15%	Scratched
Analysis Last start from last on the turn 7th of 14 at Ellerslie on November 4 over 7f, slow going 3 len behind Mad Max with 126lbs at $7.20. The race before that crossed from a wide gate to lead but couldn't hold on when 5th of 16 at Ellerslie on October 18 over 7f, 1.5 len behind Summerston carrying 126lbs at $23.20. Finds a nice race and is among the winning hopes.
1	Most recently 5th of 13 at Tauranga on November 15 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Charmrose with 119lbs at $23.60. The race before that 7th of 12 at this track on October 22 over 5 ¾f, slow going 3 len behind Nepheti carrying 130lbs at $7.20. Well placed and can improve sharply. 3rd Pick 1 I Am Nutz Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson J: Craig Grylls T: Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson	141	-	-	-	17%	5/1
Analysis Most recently 5th of 13 at Tauranga on November 15 over 6f, on a slow track, 2 len behind Charmrose with 119lbs at $23.60. The race before that 7th of 12 at this track on October 22 over 5 ¾f, slow going 3 len behind Nepheti carrying 130lbs at $7.20. Well placed and can improve sharply.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.

Pari-Mutuel

A pool style wagering system, where all money input through betting is divided among those with winning tickets (save for various deductions by the track operators).

Furlong

One furlong is an eighth of a mile.