AU - Yarra Valley - Race 3

Thoroughbred

14 Runners

7.5f

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 7

20.8K

VIEW

Verdict

GOOD HARMONY (9) was well in commission last start over 1m at Pakenham when fourth, beaten 5 lengths. Found only one better the start prior and looks to have the best form. KENTUCKY WOMEN (2) showed good early muster and fought on to finish second last start over 6f at Dunkeld. In a suitable race and can find the winner's circle. MISLIGHT (3) was in the money two starts back at Mornington but was unable to repeat the effort last time when ninth, beaten 53 lengths, at Pakenham over 1m. This is a nice drop in grade. REEL CRYSTAL (10) turned in an eye-catching run over 7 ?f at Kyneton last time, ridden back before coming home with a powerful run to finish third. Will spot them a start but watch for her late. IMMORTAL MATILDA (14) hasn't done much to inspire confidence to this point, but will find this easier than most races she's contested and gets weight off all rivals after the 9lbs claim for an in-form rider.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
9	Recent form sound. At the latest run in a small field at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on November 7 over 1m, slow going 5 len behind Square Deal with 123lbs at $1.65. The race before that made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on October 17 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.8 len behind Aitu with 121lbs at $2.60. Best form stacks up so she can bounce back. 1st Pick 9 Good Harmony Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: Peter Gelagotis J: Craig Newitt T: Peter Gelagotis	158	-	-	-	40%	6/4
Analysis Recent form sound. At the latest run in a small field at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on November 7 over 1m, slow going 5 len behind Square Deal with 123lbs at $1.65. The race before that made some head-way from midfield, 2nd of 10 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on October 17 over 7f, on a slow track, 0.8 len behind Aitu with 121lbs at $2.60. Best form stacks up so she can bounce back.
2	Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 8 at Bairnsdale Mdn-Sw on November 4 over 6f, slow going long-neck behind Adiuro carrying 127lbs at $4. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 7 at Dunkeld Mdn-Sw on November 15 over 6f, slow going 1.0 len behind Doubt In The Sky carrying 127lbs at $3.20. Profiles nicely. Should be ready to peak now after two good runs back from a spell. 2nd Pick 2 Kentucky Women Jockey: Lachlan King Trainer: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black J: Lachlan King T: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black	99	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 2nd of 8 at Bairnsdale Mdn-Sw on November 4 over 6f, slow going long-neck behind Adiuro carrying 127lbs at $4. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 7 at Dunkeld Mdn-Sw on November 15 over 6f, slow going 1.0 len behind Doubt In The Sky carrying 127lbs at $3.20. Profiles nicely. Should be ready to peak now after two good runs back from a spell.
3	Most recently ran last of 9 at Pakenham F&M Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 1m, on a slow track, 53 len behind Proven Record with 128lbs at $3.80. The start before that sat on the pace when 2nd of 7 at Mornington Mdn-Sw on November 2 over 1m, head behind Red Feathers with 128lbs at $4.80. Good effort two back so might be worth another chance. 3rd Pick 3 Mislight Jockey: Will Gordon Trainer: Rachael Frost J: Will Gordon T: Rachael Frost	115	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis Most recently ran last of 9 at Pakenham F&M Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 1m, on a slow track, 53 len behind Proven Record with 128lbs at $3.80. The start before that sat on the pace when 2nd of 7 at Mornington Mdn-Sw on November 2 over 1m, head behind Red Feathers with 128lbs at $4.80. Good effort two back so might be worth another chance.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Condition Book

A list of upcoming races issued by the racing secretary, where the conditions of races to be run over the next few weeks are written.

Bobble/Stumble

A slip or a duck from a horse trying to leave the starting gates, often caused by the surface giving way under the feet. This can range from a mild misstep to a stumble down to their knees.