AU - The Valley - Race 3

Thoroughbred

15 Runners

10.1f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

84.4K

VIEW

Verdict

AMLETO (5) looks well placed here third up. Both runs this time in have been rock solid, finding the line nicely at Caulfield in a BM80 behind a progressive mare in Blindedbythelight. He should be set to peak out to 1 ¼m now and is open to further improvement from a nice draw. SO BRAVE (4) is another horse with upside having won well at big odds fresh before a good effort behind the in-form Zambardo second up. Fitter again now and should take beating. SAXON BEAUTY (10) is racing in career best form, just finding one better at her past couple, trying hard in the Pinker Pinker Plate last time out. She'll roll forward from the wide draw and take catching. FAREWELL TO EIRE (11) was better here last time and will just need a good ride from the wide gate to be figuring. HOT TOO GO (13) was poor last time but can improve.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
5	Third-up today. First-up 4th of 9 at Caulfield Bm78 on September 20 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Al Duca carrying 114lbs at $31. Second run from a spell 4th of 12 at Caulfield Bm80 Grand Hcp on October 11 over 1 ¹/16m, 1.75 len behind Blindedbythelight carrying 122lbs at $8.50. Rates highly. Sets up well and is ready to peak. 1st Pick 5 Amleto Jockey: Ethan Brown Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Ethan Brown T: Ciaron Maher	116	-	-	-	35%	15/8
Analysis Third-up today. First-up 4th of 9 at Caulfield Bm78 on September 20 over 1m, 1.75 len behind Al Duca carrying 114lbs at $31. Second run from a spell 4th of 12 at Caulfield Bm80 Grand Hcp on October 11 over 1 ¹/16m, 1.75 len behind Blindedbythelight carrying 122lbs at $8.50. Rates highly. Sets up well and is ready to peak.
4	Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by 1.0 len at this track Bm66 October 3 over 1m defeating Heed The Omens carrying 129lbs at $26. Second-up 4th of 10 at Caulfield Bm78 on October 15 over 1 ¼m, 4.5 len behind Zambardo with 121lbs at $18. Can improve. Rates highly and open to further improvement. 2nd Pick 4 So Brave Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: John Leek Jr J: Daniel Stackhouse T: John Leek Jr	141	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Third-up today and placed third-up previously. First-up ran on strongly from last on the turn and won by 1.0 len at this track Bm66 October 3 over 1m defeating Heed The Omens carrying 129lbs at $26. Second-up 4th of 10 at Caulfield Bm78 on October 15 over 1 ¼m, 4.5 len behind Zambardo with 121lbs at $18. Can improve. Rates highly and open to further improvement.
10	Form hard to fault. Last start set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 7 at Cranbourne F&M Hcp on October 10 over 1 ¼m, 1.75 len behind Brave Miss carrying 117lbs at $13. The start before that 2nd of 12 at Sandown-Hillside Bm66 on September 24 over 1m, 2.75 len behind Shiny New Deel with 127lbs at $31. Not far away last start. Going well, takes catching. 3rd Pick 10 Saxon Beauty Jockey: Hannah Edgley Trainer: Shawn Mathrick J: Hannah Edgley T: Shawn Mathrick	85	-	-	-	8%	12/1
Analysis Form hard to fault. Last start set the pace for much of the race 2nd of 7 at Cranbourne F&M Hcp on October 10 over 1 ¼m, 1.75 len behind Brave Miss carrying 117lbs at $13. The start before that 2nd of 12 at Sandown-Hillside Bm66 on September 24 over 1m, 2.75 len behind Shiny New Deel with 127lbs at $31. Not far away last start. Going well, takes catching.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.

Workout

A workout is a timed sprint over varying distances prior to a race, meant to get a horse fit enough for competition.

Dead Heat

Two or more horses finishing so close at the wire, that they were unable to be separated on a photo finish and deemed to have tied.