AU - Mornington - Race 4

Thoroughbred

16 Runners

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

21.1K

VIEW

Verdict

KALIZMA (10) started $4 last time and ran below expectations, finishing fifth and beaten 5 lengths at Geelong over 5 ½f. Finds an easier assignment than starts to date, at peak fitness now and drawn nicely. PRESTIGE ZERPRISE (6) finished out of the money on debut two starts back then was beaten 6 lengths when fourth over 5 ?f at Kyneton 2.5 weeks ago. Finds a nice race and can figure in the finish. DUBAI ADVENTURE (4) is the best-bred horse in the race, by gun stallion Street Boss out of Magic Millions winner Exhilarates, who has a shocking gate but went well in a recent jumpout alongside Alphabet, who runs in R2, which could prove a good guide to his chances. KADESH (16) is another first-starter from a powerful stable and has looked good at the jumpouts of late, including a nice win at Pakenham at her latest.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
10	Last start 5th of 9 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 5 ½f, 5 len behind Smarticon with 123lbs at $4. The start before that 3rd in a small field at Hamilton 3yo Mdn-Sw on October 11 over 6f, slow going 2.25 len behind Star Of Omaha carrying 123lbs at $2.35. Fitter and must come into consideration over this longer journey. 1st Pick 10 Kalizma Jockey: Teo Nugent Trainer: Ciaron Maher J: Teo Nugent T: Ciaron Maher	101	-	-	-	15%
Analysis Last start 5th of 9 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 5 ½f, 5 len behind Smarticon with 123lbs at $4. The start before that 3rd in a small field at Hamilton 3yo Mdn-Sw on October 11 over 6f, slow going 2.25 len behind Star Of Omaha carrying 123lbs at $2.35. Fitter and must come into consideration over this longer journey.
6	Raced twice to date. At debut, eased back early on 6th of 9 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on October 17 over 6f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Katsumi Orochi with 126lbs at $11. Second-up settled back and ran on when 4th of 7 at Kyneton Mdn-Sw on November 18 over 5f, 6 len behind Elonia carrying 128lbs at $6.50. Key chance expected to feature. 2nd Pick 6 Prestige Zerprise Jockey: Craig Newitt Trainer: Matt Jenkins J: Craig Newitt T: Matt Jenkins	108	-	-	-	10%
Analysis Raced twice to date. At debut, eased back early on 6th of 9 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw on October 17 over 6f, on a slow track, 4.5 len behind Katsumi Orochi with 126lbs at $11. Second-up settled back and ran on when 4th of 7 at Kyneton Mdn-Sw on November 18 over 5f, 6 len behind Elonia carrying 128lbs at $6.50. Key chance expected to feature.
1	Resuming after a four-and-a-half months break. Finished off last preparation sixth of 12 at Pakenham Synthetic 3yo Mdn-Sw July 28 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Bardia's Dream with 128lbs at $9. On debut sixth of 8 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw May 15 over 7f, 2 len behind Keep Thinking carrying 128lbs at $4. This is an ideal race to kick off. Yet to place but spent time in better races than this and won a trial ahead of the return. 3rd Pick 1 Alpine Fox Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Cindy Alderson J: Non Runner T: Cindy Alderson	69	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Resuming after a four-and-a-half months break. Finished off last preparation sixth of 12 at Pakenham Synthetic 3yo Mdn-Sw July 28 over 6f, 3.5 len behind Bardia's Dream with 128lbs at $9. On debut sixth of 8 at Pakenham Mdn-Sw May 15 over 7f, 2 len behind Keep Thinking carrying 128lbs at $4. This is an ideal race to kick off. Yet to place but spent time in better races than this and won a trial ahead of the return.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Superfecta

A wager involving choosing the first, second, third, and fourth horses in one race in the exact order. A superfecta box involves paying more to ensure they can finish in any order in the top four spots.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.

Bleeder

A horse that bleeds due to a ruptured blood vessel during a race or workout. The medication Lasix can fix this problem.