AU - Mornington - Race 1

Thoroughbred

7 Runners

11.9f

Maiden

Turf

GOOD 4

21.1K

VIEW

Verdict

UP YOU GO (3) has shown good improvement at his past two with minor placings, most recently when beaten 1.2 lengths into third over 1 ½m at Geelong. Faces an easier assignment, so he is a major player. Improvement from that outing might help him turn the tables on LAST CARD LOUIE (2), who is deep into the preparation but obviously holding together well given the latest effort. DISCOBAY (4) has been building this prep and might be ready to show something up to 1 ½m off a couple of recent placings. FAR FROM A CRY (5) has been in the betting recently but has failed to live up to market expectations. Most recently finished fourth over 1 ½m at Geelong, beaten 2.5 lengths. Must respect recent market confidence so give her another chance. MY GIRL LILY (6) finished 14 lengths away in seventh last time out over 1 ¼m at Pakenham three weeks ago. Tackles a longer journey this time, but should relish this company and distance.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
3	Recent form sound. Most recently sat on speed throughout when 3rd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 26 over 1 ½m, 1.2 len behind Scorpion Bay with 131lbs at $4.40. The race before that held ground to the line 2nd of 8 at this track Mdn-Sw on November 10 over 1 ½m, on a slow track, 1.0 len behind Nicoffhome carrying 131lbs at $61. Ready to break through. 1st Pick 3 Up You Go Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Amy & Ash Yargi J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Amy & Ash Yargi	128	-	-	-	50%
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently sat on speed throughout when 3rd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 26 over 1 ½m, 1.2 len behind Scorpion Bay with 131lbs at $4.40. The race before that held ground to the line 2nd of 8 at this track Mdn-Sw on November 10 over 1 ½m, on a slow track, 1.0 len behind Nicoffhome carrying 131lbs at $61. Ready to break through.
2	At the latest run 2nd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 26 over 1 ½m, long-neck behind Scorpion Bay with 125lbs at $9.50. The run before that 5th of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 1 ½m, 2.5 len behind Mighty Mac with 125lbs at $11. Deep into the prep now, so might not have as much improvement to come as others, but chance on latest effort. 2nd Pick 2 Last Card Louie Jockey: Caitlin Hollowood Trainer: Denis Pagan J: Caitlin Hollowood T: Denis Pagan	151	-	-	-	19%
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 26 over 1 ½m, long-neck behind Scorpion Bay with 125lbs at $9.50. The run before that 5th of 8 at Geelong Mdn-Sw on November 14 over 1 ½m, 2.5 len behind Mighty Mac with 125lbs at $11. Deep into the prep now, so might not have as much improvement to come as others, but chance on latest effort.
4	Racing well recently. Most recently held ground to the line 3rd of 10 at Donald Mdn-Sw on November 16 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Makhanda with 127lbs at $5. The race before that 3rd of 8 at Hamilton Mdn-Sw on November 7 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Circa carrying 149lbs at $4.20. Should be thereabouts. 3rd Pick 4 Discobay Jockey: Linda Meech Trainer: Adrian Mcgregor J: Linda Meech T: Adrian Mcgregor	112	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Racing well recently. Most recently held ground to the line 3rd of 10 at Donald Mdn-Sw on November 16 over 1m, 1.2 len behind Makhanda with 127lbs at $5. The race before that 3rd of 8 at Hamilton Mdn-Sw on November 7 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Circa carrying 149lbs at $4.20. Should be thereabouts.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Paddock

The area where horses gather before the race to be saddled and paraded for the public.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.