AU - Flemington MCC - Race 9

Thoroughbred

20 Runners

5.5f

Benchmark

Turf

GOOD 4

97.5K

VIEW

Verdict

We end a massive Cup week with a full field down the straight. James McDonald won this race aboard a heavily backed favourite last year and legs up the market elect in STOLI BOLLI (6) this year. He's flying without winning, just edged out here two back before perhaps just waiting too long to get going at Geelong when just missing as the $1.90 favourite. He only needs to hold that form and he can get the job done. SWEETHEARTED (11) looks a danger. He did more than enough fresh at Caulfield when getting a long way back, running on into sixth. 6f suits now having run fifth to subsequent G1 winner Reserve Bank when last seen at the trip. BALASTIER (10) is flying, winning all three this time in. This is harder again and she had things to suit last time but respecting. ACTUALITY (16) and JUST LIKE GABY (15) are progressive 4yo mares, both have each-way claims.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
6	Racing well recently. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 9 at Geelong Dual Choice Plt on October 23 over 6f, on a slow track, neck behind Naval Academy carrying 123lbs at $1.90. The start before that 2nd of 16 at this track Bm78 on October 4 over 6f, long-neck behind De Bergerac with 129lbs at $3.40. Went close last time. Bursting to win one, this sets up well. 1st Pick 6 Stoli Bolli Jockey: James Mcdonald Trainer: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes J: James Mcdonald T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes	235	-	-	-	31%	9/4
Analysis Racing well recently. Last start tracked the speed and boxed on steadily 2nd of 9 at Geelong Dual Choice Plt on October 23 over 6f, on a slow track, neck behind Naval Academy carrying 123lbs at $1.90. The start before that 2nd of 16 at this track Bm78 on October 4 over 6f, long-neck behind De Bergerac with 129lbs at $3.40. Went close last time. Bursting to win one, this sets up well.
11	Second-up. First-up after six months eased back early on 6th of 11 at Caulfield Bm78 on October 15 over 5 ½f, 2.25 len behind Don't Hope Do carrying 127lbs at $5. Previously second-up 3rd of 11 at Bendigo 3yo Hcp on April 12 over 5 ½f, 3.5 len behind Manolo Bling carrying 122lbs at $3.50. Suited here, hard to hold out. 2nd Pick 11 Sweethearted Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse Trainer: Phillip Stokes J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Phillip Stokes	124	-	-	-	15%	6/1
Analysis Second-up. First-up after six months eased back early on 6th of 11 at Caulfield Bm78 on October 15 over 5 ½f, 2.25 len behind Don't Hope Do carrying 127lbs at $5. Previously second-up 3rd of 11 at Bendigo 3yo Hcp on April 12 over 5 ½f, 3.5 len behind Manolo Bling carrying 122lbs at $3.50. Suited here, hard to hold out.
10	Recent form sound. Returns from a 36-day let-up. Last start favourite, won by a nose at Moonee Valley Bm70 October 3 over 6f defeating Sun Setting with 130lbs at $2.80. The start before that favourite, won by 2.25 len at Bendigo Bm62 September 7 over 5 ½f on a heavy track defeating Areyoureadyforit carrying 131lbs at $2.20. Hard to knock, can measure up again. 3rd Pick 10 Balastier Jockey: Jordan Childs Trainer: Danny O'brien J: Jordan Childs T: Danny O'brien	116	-	-	-	12%	15/2
Analysis Recent form sound. Returns from a 36-day let-up. Last start favourite, won by a nose at Moonee Valley Bm70 October 3 over 6f defeating Sun Setting with 130lbs at $2.80. The start before that favourite, won by 2.25 len at Bendigo Bm62 September 7 over 5 ½f on a heavy track defeating Areyoureadyforit carrying 131lbs at $2.20. Hard to knock, can measure up again.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Rabbit

Also known as a pacemaker; this is a horse with no expected chance of winning but is used to prompt a quick pace on the front end of the race to the benefit of a stablemate who is a closer.

Fast

A dry dirt track that is typically an ideal racing surface.

State-Bred

A horse bred in a particular state and thus eligible to race in restricted state-bred races. These can be anything from maiden races to stakes events.