AU - Warwick Farm - Race 7

Thoroughbred

12 Runners

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 6

41.7K

VIEW

Verdict

Difficult race to close the card. HEAT MISSILE (11) is worth the gamble third-up after a couple of decent efforts to launch this prep. Raced wide throughout so her three-length defeat over 6f at Randwick last start was okay. Finished fourth at Listed level last prep so she looks nicely placed back in midweek company. COPACABANA (6) registered his 12th top-three finish from 15 runs when third in a comparable race at the Kensington track a fortnight ago. Races well here and despite getting deep into the prep he is a winning hope. CONCORDIA WIND (10) savaged the line but just missed in a thriller first-up over 6 ¼f at the Kenso. Lightly raced mare who will be hard to hold out over this longer journey second-up. CLANCY (1) is new to this trip but she did close with gusto to score over 6 ¼f last time. Sparingly raced and is capable of testing this field. The promising ANTHRACITE (3) failed at his first run under Joe Pride recently. Better than that.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
11	Third-up today. First-up from last on the turn 6th of 8 at Wyong F&M Bm78 on January 10 over 5 ½f, 1.75 len behind Petticoat carrying 121lbs at $5.50. Second run from a spell raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 11 at Randwick F&M Bm78 on January 24 over 6f, 2.75 len behind Super Norwest with 121lbs at $6.50. Strips a lot fitter and the drop back to midweek company is a key component. 1st Pick 11 Heat Missile Jockey: Tim Clark Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott J: Tim Clark T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	153	-	-	-	20%	4/1
Analysis Third-up today. First-up from last on the turn 6th of 8 at Wyong F&M Bm78 on January 10 over 5 ½f, 1.75 len behind Petticoat carrying 121lbs at $5.50. Second run from a spell raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 11 at Randwick F&M Bm78 on January 24 over 6f, 2.75 len behind Super Norwest with 121lbs at $6.50. Strips a lot fitter and the drop back to midweek company is a key component.
6	Recent form sound. Most recently sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 7 at Randwick Kensington 5yo+ Bm72 on January 21 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Canadian Ruler carrying 128lbs at $2.30. Before that favourite, won by 2 len at this track 5yo+ Bm72 January 7 over 7f defeating Bat Out Of Hell carrying 123lbs at $5.50. Racing in great heart and is capable of taking this out. 2nd Pick 6 Copacabana Jockey: Zac Lloyd Trainer: M, W & J Hawkes J: Zac Lloyd T: M, W & J Hawkes	169	-	-	-	12%	8/1
Analysis Recent form sound. Most recently sat on the speed and boxed on steadily 3rd of 7 at Randwick Kensington 5yo+ Bm72 on January 21 over 7f, on a slow track, 3.5 len behind Canadian Ruler carrying 128lbs at $2.30. Before that favourite, won by 2 len at this track 5yo+ Bm72 January 7 over 7f defeating Bat Out Of Hell carrying 123lbs at $5.50. Racing in great heart and is capable of taking this out.
10	Second-up. First-up after 14 months ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 9 at Randwick Kensington 3&4yo Bm64 on January 21 over 6 ¼f, slow going head behind Clear Proof with 128lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up won by 1.2 len at this track 3yo Bm68 September 25 2024 over 6f defeating Deconstruction carrying 123lbs at $7. Fitter and worth following up. 3rd Pick 10 Concordia Wind Jockey: James Mcdonald Trainer: Chris Waller J: James Mcdonald T: Chris Waller	155	-	-	-	23%	7/2
Analysis Second-up. First-up after 14 months ran on strongly from last on the turn, 3rd of 9 at Randwick Kensington 3&4yo Bm64 on January 21 over 6 ¼f, slow going head behind Clear Proof with 128lbs at $4.40. Previously second-up won by 1.2 len at this track 3yo Bm68 September 25 2024 over 6f defeating Deconstruction carrying 123lbs at $7. Fitter and worth following up.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Exercise Rider

A rider built much like a jockey but is employed for exercising and working out horses in the morning.

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.