AU - Tamworth - Race 1

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

Maiden

Turf

SOFT 7

17.7K

VIEW

Verdict

TOUGH GUY (3) returns from a sixteen-week spell and has transferred to the Melissa Dennett stable. Opened last prep with a couple of sound efforts in Victoria, the sort of form that measures up well in this company. Trialled nicely at Scone on 25 June. Will be at a very short quote but should be winning. STOLEN SHOW (2) backs up seven days after making late ground to finish fourth over this course and distance. Slowly putting it together and in this shallow field he is the logical threat. CAPSITY (8) on debut looks the only other chance following a couple of sound recent trials. Next best is FRESH IS BEST (5) who might need more time based on two plain efforts at the trials.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
3	Resumes after a break of four months and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last preparation eighth of 10 at Geelong Mdn-Sw March 15 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Peace Baby carrying 130lbs at $3.40. When resuming last campaign fifth of 12 at Colac Mdn-Sw February 7 over 6f, 2 len behind Alero carrying 130lbs at $2.50. Anticipating him to hit the ground running this campaign. 1st Pick 3 Tough Guy Jockey: Aaron Bullock Trainer: Melissa Dennett J: Aaron Bullock T: Melissa Dennett	204	-	-	-	90%
Analysis Resumes after a break of four months and has been in the money when fresh before. Finished off last preparation eighth of 10 at Geelong Mdn-Sw March 15 over 5 ½f, 4 len behind Peace Baby carrying 130lbs at $3.40. When resuming last campaign fifth of 12 at Colac Mdn-Sw February 7 over 6f, 2 len behind Alero carrying 130lbs at $2.50. Anticipating him to hit the ground running this campaign.
1	Returns from a 32-day let-up. Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 10 at Pakenham Synthetic Mdn-Sw on June 2 over 7f, 10 len behind Pop's Pipe carrying 131lbs at $16. Before that 3rd in a small field at Sale 3yo Mdn-Sw on May 18 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Whiplash carrying 128lbs at $10. One to monitor stepping out for the new stable. 2nd Pick 1 Jagerschnitzel Jockey: Non Runner Trainer: Cameron Crockett J: Non Runner T: Cameron Crockett	142	-	-	-	1%	Scratched
Analysis Returns from a 32-day let-up. Last start raced on the speed and boxed on steadily 6th of 10 at Pakenham Synthetic Mdn-Sw on June 2 over 7f, 10 len behind Pop's Pipe carrying 131lbs at $16. Before that 3rd in a small field at Sale 3yo Mdn-Sw on May 18 over 7f, slow going 3.5 len behind Whiplash carrying 128lbs at $10. One to monitor stepping out for the new stable.
2	Dual acceptor. Third-up today. First-up 3rd in a small field at Talmoi Pic Mdn-Sw on June 21 over 5f, neck behind The Hoff carrying 148lbs at $7. Last start 4th of 8 at this track Ctry Mdn-Sw on June 27 over 5f, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Hellwithasmile with 130lbs at $31. Profiles nicely. Ready to peak at the third run back. 3rd Pick 2 Stolen Show Jockey: Billy Cray Trainer: Nikki Pollock J: Billy Cray T: Nikki Pollock	156	-	-	-	6%
Analysis Dual acceptor. Third-up today. First-up 3rd in a small field at Talmoi Pic Mdn-Sw on June 21 over 5f, neck behind The Hoff carrying 148lbs at $7. Last start 4th of 8 at this track Ctry Mdn-Sw on June 27 over 5f, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Hellwithasmile with 130lbs at $31. Profiles nicely. Ready to peak at the third run back.

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