NZ - Ellerslie - Race 5

Thoroughbred

19 Runners

10.4f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

31.3K

VIEW

Verdict

INTOXICATED (4) stepped up to 1 ?m for the first time at Pukekohe 3 weeks ago and got to be within a short-head of the winner when finishing third. He can settle midfield, and can have the last say here. Stick with him. GIPPSY GOD (1) was fifth and only half a length off the winner in the same race as the top pick last time out, which was a leader-dominated affair. He is likely to get back from a wide gate and will only need a genuine tempo here to be a big winning chance. Stick with him. SONORAN (6) bolted in when winning his maiden at Matamata on a heavy track in September, but has not really gone with it since then. He is better than that and is worth one more chance. POETIC JUSTICE (2) caught the eye with a late finish for sixth at New Plymouth last time out over 1 ?m, and he will relish the extra 1 ½f third up from a spell. If the gaps come at the right time, then he can figure in the top 3. SI EXQUIS (11) has been unlucky recently, and can make amends in this. Each way.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
4	Last start 3rd of 11 at Pukekohe on November 8 over 1m, head behind Princess Elly carrying 128lbs at $8.50. The race before that eased back early on 8th of 14 at this track on October 25 over 1m, slow going 4.5 len behind Sneak Peek carrying 129lbs at $17.30. Sure to run his usual honest race. 1st Pick 4 Intoxicated Jockey: Sam Weatherley Trainer: Stephen Marsh J: Sam Weatherley T: Stephen Marsh	74	-	-	-	13%	7/1
Analysis Last start 3rd of 11 at Pukekohe on November 8 over 1m, head behind Princess Elly carrying 128lbs at $8.50. The race before that eased back early on 8th of 14 at this track on October 25 over 1m, slow going 4.5 len behind Sneak Peek carrying 129lbs at $17.30. Sure to run his usual honest race.
1	Last start 5th of 11 at Pukekohe on November 8 over 1m, 0.5 len behind Princess Elly with 130lbs at $7.40. Before that came from the tail of the field 2nd of 12 at Te Aroha on October 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Pointer carrying 129lbs at $7.40. Went close last time. Hard to beat on his best form. 2nd Pick 1 Gippsy God Jockey: Matt Cartwright Trainer: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott J: Matt Cartwright T: Lance O'sullivan & Andrew Scott	101	-	-	-	7%	15/1
Analysis Last start 5th of 11 at Pukekohe on November 8 over 1m, 0.5 len behind Princess Elly with 130lbs at $7.40. Before that came from the tail of the field 2nd of 12 at Te Aroha on October 22 over 1m, on a slow track, 1.5 len behind Pointer carrying 129lbs at $7.40. Went close last time. Hard to beat on his best form.
6	Most recently 5th of 12 at Arawa Park on November 16 over 1 ³/16m, slow going 1.1 len behind In A Pickle with 129lbs at $3.90. Before that 6th of 14 at this track on October 25 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Sneak Peek with 129lbs at $10.20. Working up to a win. Finds a nice race and can bounce back to his best. 3rd Pick 6 Sonoran Jockey: Darren Danis Trainer: Vicki Prendergast J: Darren Danis T: Vicki Prendergast	69	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis Most recently 5th of 12 at Arawa Park on November 16 over 1 ³/16m, slow going 1.1 len behind In A Pickle with 129lbs at $3.90. Before that 6th of 14 at this track on October 25 over 1m, on a slow track, 2.5 len behind Sneak Peek with 129lbs at $10.20. Working up to a win. Finds a nice race and can bounce back to his best.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Starter Race

An allowance race restricted to horses who have started for a certain claiming price recently.

Yielding

A rain-soaked turf condition often producing a slick or heavy course and slower finish times.

Colt

A male horse that is four years of age or under.