NZ - Ellerslie - Race 2

Thoroughbred

8 Runners

11.9f

Benchmark

Turf

SOFT 5

31.3K

VIEW

Verdict

BOXMOSS (1) was more known as a poly track performer prior to a big win at Ellerslie over 1 ½m last time out when motoring home from near last to score by over a length. He stays in the same class, and in a smaller field, he can have the last say again. SANTA CATALINA (6) had no answer to the finishing burst of the top pick last time out in the same race. She is better off at the weights this time and may turn the tables. MOONLIGHT MAGIC (4) will have no fitness concerns after having 3 runs back from a spell. The step up to 1 ½m is the key, and she is a top 3 chance in this field. THE PROPHET (2) battled on well enough last start at Pukekohe over 1 5/16m, and he tries 1 ½m for the first time, which should not be a problem. Each way claims. UNEQUIVOCAL (5) was third behind the top pick last start, and drops the visor-blinkers for this. She is rock-hard fit, and can figure in the finish again.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob	Odds
1	At the latest run won by 1.4 len at this track November 4 over 1 ½m in soft going defeating Santa Catalina with 125lbs at $10.90. The run before that 5th of 11 at this track on October 18 over 1 5/16m, 0.9 len behind Tisse carrying 125lbs at $11.40. Hard to beat in this type of form. 1st Pick 1 Boxmoss Jockey: Warren Kennedy Trainer: Chris Wood J: Warren Kennedy T: Chris Wood	133	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis At the latest run won by 1.4 len at this track November 4 over 1 ½m in soft going defeating Santa Catalina with 125lbs at $10.90. The run before that 5th of 11 at this track on October 18 over 1 5/16m, 0.9 len behind Tisse carrying 125lbs at $11.40. Hard to beat in this type of form.
6	At the latest run 2nd of 17 at this track on November 4 over 1 ½m, slow going 1.4 len behind Boxmoss with 119lbs at $6.10. The start before that 6th of 11 at this track on October 18 over 1 5/16m, 1.0 len behind Tisse with 119lbs at $10.20. Working up to a win. Top chance. 2nd Pick 6 Santa Catalina Jockey: Craig Grylls Trainer: Peter & Shaun Mckay J: Craig Grylls T: Peter & Shaun Mckay	125	-	-	-	25%	3/1
Analysis At the latest run 2nd of 17 at this track on November 4 over 1 ½m, slow going 1.4 len behind Boxmoss with 119lbs at $6.10. The start before that 6th of 11 at this track on October 18 over 1 5/16m, 1.0 len behind Tisse with 119lbs at $10.20. Working up to a win. Top chance.
4	At the latest run 8th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 7 len behind Solidify with 123lbs at $14.40. The run before that 10th of 14 at Tauranga on November 1 over 1m, slow going 4 len behind Bourbon Proof carrying 125lbs at $26.80. Can turn things around. 3rd Pick 4 Moonlight Magic Jockey: Wiremu Pinn Trainer: Andrew Forsman J: Wiremu Pinn T: Andrew Forsman	175	-	-	-	16%	11/2
Analysis At the latest run 8th of 14 at Pukekohe on November 22 over 1 5/16m, on a slow track, 7 len behind Solidify with 123lbs at $14.40. The run before that 10th of 14 at Tauranga on November 1 over 1m, slow going 4 len behind Bourbon Proof carrying 125lbs at $26.80. Can turn things around.

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Horse Racing Basic Terms

Underlay

A horse that is going off at lower odds than it deserves based on performance.

Trifecta

A wager picking the first, second and third horses in the exact order. A trifecta box means paying more to ensure the horses can finish in any order in the top three spots.

Mare

A female horse of five years or more.