IE - Bellewstown - Race 7

Thoroughbred

5 Runners

12.3f

Am. Stakes

Turf

Good (Good to Yielding in places)

17.0K

VIEW

Verdict

2024 Boodles winner LARK IN THE MORNIN hasn't progressed as expected over hurdles but ran well back on the Flat last month and should take the beating in a modest event. Arch Empire wasn't far off his hurdles form when third on Flat debut last month and he may provide the main threat, though Weston, who shaped better over hurdles last time, would be interesting if retaining some of his old Flat ability.

numberFire Picks

Horse Stats

#/Silk	Horse#/Horse	Power Rating	High Speed	Win %	Top 3%	Win Prob
3	1m debut winner on the Flat back in 2022. 2024 Boodles hurdle winner didn't progress as expected over hurdles last season but ran well back on the Flat when third of 9 in a conditions race (7/4) at Listowel (13.4f, good) 32 days ago. Looks the one to beat. 1st Pick 3 Lark In The Mornin (Ger) Jockey: Mr J. L. Gleeson Trainer: Joseph Patrick O'brien, Ireland J: Mr J. L. Gleeson T: Joseph Patrick O'brien, Ireland	100	-	-	-	84%
Analysis 1m debut winner on the Flat back in 2022. 2024 Boodles hurdle winner didn't progress as expected over hurdles last season but ran well back on the Flat when third of 9 in a conditions race (7/4) at Listowel (13.4f, good) 32 days ago. Looks the one to beat.
1	Fairly useful winner at 17f over hurdles. Wasn't far off that level when third of 13 in maiden at Leopardstown (15f, good to firm, 9/1) on Flat debut 14 days ago, though better placed than most. Lightly-raced and could step forward from that run. 2nd Pick 1 Arch Empire (Fr) Jockey: Mr H. C. Swan Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Ireland J: Mr H. C. Swan T: Gordon Elliott, Ireland	80	-	-	-	25%
Analysis Fairly useful winner at 17f over hurdles. Wasn't far off that level when third of 13 in maiden at Leopardstown (15f, good to firm, 9/1) on Flat debut 14 days ago, though better placed than most. Lightly-raced and could step forward from that run.
4	Dual Flat winner in Germany and once useful on Flat for Gordon Elliott. Way below that on latest Flat start over 1m for current connections but shaped better on handicap hurdle debut when third at Fairyhouse (16.1f) 73 days ago. Remains to be seen if he can translate that form back onto the Flat. 3rd Pick 4 Weston (Ger) Jockey: Mr D. Doyle Trainer: Harry Rogers, Ireland J: Mr D. Doyle T: Harry Rogers, Ireland	89	-	-	-	17%
Analysis Dual Flat winner in Germany and once useful on Flat for Gordon Elliott. Way below that on latest Flat start over 1m for current connections but shaped better on handicap hurdle debut when third at Fairyhouse (16.1f) 73 days ago. Remains to be seen if he can translate that form back onto the Flat.

Upcoming Races

Horse Racing Basic Terms

Bute

Shortened word for phenylbutazone, the common non-steroidal medication legal at most racetrack.

Morning Line

An approximation of expected odds in a race, quoted before actual odds are determined.

Maiden Race

A race exclusively for horses who have not previously won.